Well, we know that there is supposed to be a bill on a National Service Law within 45 days presented by Yesh Atid. Presumably this bill was part of the coalition deal that was signed by all of the parties, and that since the Haredi parties were/are not part of this coalition, this deal should most likely go through. However, 45 days in Israeli (or anyones politics) are a lifetime, so this one should pass unless something should unravel.
We also know that the threshold for new parties to enter Knesset (in the next election) will most likely be raised from 2-4%, which would cut out a number of smaller parties and would push voters into larger blocs.
And we also know that the number of ministerial positions will eventually be cut to 18. There are 21 ministers in the present government (down by a 1/3), but this is a change that will streamline the government and is part of Yesh Atid's platform of making the cumbersome Israeli government more efficient.
Here is what we don't know... We don't know what the socio-economic picture of Israel is going to look like as it is tied into a number of factors. PM Netanyahu promised reforms and however he has financial neophyte (by his own admission) Yair Lapid will be running finance. At the same time we have Naftali Bennett serving as head of the Socio-Economic committee of the Knesset. As Ynet reports
Bennett will also serve as chairman of a subcommittee of the Social-Economic Cabinet for standard of living affairs, economic concentration and competitiveness. "The committee will be established within 30 days after the government's establishment," the agreement states.
Bennett will serve as a member of the ministerial committee for privatization affairs and as the acting committee chairman....Now here is Jewish Home's national economic ideas because from what I have seen they don't really have a "plan"... but they do have something that sounds a lot like the Republican program of "Compassionate Conservatism" (we all know how well that worked out): From the HaBayit HaYehudi website:
Free economy with compassionTwo things here:
The State of Israel is a remarkable economic success. However, s large part of the population has missed out on the fruits of this prosperity. We will act to provide equal opportunity that will allow every young person in Israel a chance to succeed. We are committed to improving education, increasing competition, breaking up monopolies and wherever possible, cutting taxes for Israel’s middle classes. Israel must provide a safety net allowing a decent standard of living for those, and only those, who are unable to provide for themselves.
1. As we in the U.S. know cutting taxes without curtailing government spending (BUSH) leads to serious fiscal issues. HaBayit HaYehudi (and their rightist allies in Likud-Betainu) are completely committed to the settling the West Bank. While Likud-Betainu seems to actually have no set position on anything (aside from making their corporate sponsors wealthier), HaBayit HaYehudi is very much interested in not only stepping up the settlement process but in actually annexing the entire West Bank (see their website for details). So the question becomes, IF they are going to CUT taxes, how are they going to pay for their annexation plans.
Keep in mind the U.S. and the European Union (Israel's main financial backers) are very much against this policy and the E.U. has gone so far as to discuss (though not approve) of sanctions. Now Rightist supporters of Israel say they can "go it alone". I would say to them... Really? You think? I don't see that at all. If Europe or the U.S. took economic action, it would severely hurt the nation.
Of course I am not suggesting that Israel should not try to maintain an independent outlook and put sole responsibility for it's security in the hands of others, but, I do think they have to be cognizant of what the economic reality of the nation's actions.
2. The second concerns are energy and water. The Israelis have done a great job in the Water department even in the face of increasing shortages through desalinization effort. But what about energy? Israel right now has two main sources one of which runs through the Sinai, now controlled by the Egyptian fundamentalist group the Muslim Brotherhood. So far, the Egyptians have been abiding by their treaty with Israel (thanks to active U.S. lobbying and assistance), but that could change with annexation, which would surely also re-ignite tension on the Southern Border.
This would leave the Leviathan fields open but those have yet to be developed so energy / revenue from their would be problematic until everything was fully operational. SO... how will this work. Israelis and supporters of Israel need to be asking these questions.
Finally, we come to the situation in the Occupied Territories and governance. Tzipi Livni, who signed onto the coalition over a month ago signed on with the guarantee that she would be Justice Minister AND that she would be in charge of negotiations with the Palestinians answerable only to PM Netanyahu. Everyone who knows anything about Livni knows that she has been an outspoken advocate of the Two State Solution. NOW, in this government it looks like she is going to lose that second part of her position (but, maintaining the Justice Ministry).
The agreement also states that Bennett will be part of a ministerial team established to promote the peace process with the Palestinians, which will be headed by Netanyahu alongside Justice Minister-designate Tzipi Livni, Defense Minister-designate Moshe Yaalon, Finance Minister-designate Yair Lapid and the foreign minister.Why do I say this? Because, neither Lapid nor Bennett actually agreed to have Livni in that position and now with them in that team they can scuttle any real Two State talks that come up Remember, Bennett favors annexation, and Ya'alon is not far behind there. SO.. how does the coalition keep it's promise to HaTanuah? My feeling is that they don't. But then again, Livni and HaTanuah were doomed from the start the second they signed that deal. They should have seen this coming and they didn't, so Bibi can chalk another "political kill" (Barak, Mofaz, and Livni) to his belt (I still think Lapid is next).
These are the things that Israelis should be asking about and what the government SHOULD be concerned with, not, with who gets the title of "Deputy Prime Minister" which in reality is the same as being called "Deputy Dog". Personally, I am not so sure exactly how this government will last but one never knows. My bet is that we see elections within 12 months though many people are predicting 18 months..
Shalom.
(livosh1)
ReplyDeleteAside from the Haredi National Service initiative, I don't think Lapid will find it politically advantageous to keep Bennett as his BFF. So, I think the government's agenda is National Service and bust.