Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Shimon Peres on Saturday evening and officially asked him for an extension in order to form the new government.
The customary 28-day timeframe afforded to the prime minister after the Likud's election win, has elapsed over the weekend.
Israel's Election Act, as well as Basic Law: The Government, state that the winning candidate is allowed to petition the president for an additional 14 days to complete the task, should the initial timeframe prove insufficient.
According to the law, should Netanyahu fail to form a government at the end of his 14-day extension, Peres could task another candidate with the responsibility.The PM has had trouble reconciling the various parts of his policies to with the core principles of partners needed to form a new government. Right now he has only gotten Tzipi Livni of the Centrist HaTanuah Party to join. He did that by promising HaTanuah, the Justice Ministry (Livni), the Environmental Portfolio, the head of the Knesset House Committee (which sets the rules for the Knesset) AND promising Livni, the lead in negotiating with the Palestinians. Of course this deal alone makes coalition talks that much tougher, but, we will get to that in a moment.
Rather than focus on specific policies that he wants to enact, the Prime Minister has been roaming around talking only ministries and personal gains for individuals rather than discuss actual hard policy, rather relying on glossing over details in order to get people into agreeing on joining him in government. Because of this he is losing coherency in message not only with the other potential partners BUT within his own party.
For instance, right after the election where the Right LOST considerable influence, Netanyahu reiterated his commitment made in the "Bar Ilan Speech" where he accepted a Two State Solution to the Israeli - Palestinian question. However, right after he did this, the #4 on the Likud-Betainu list Yair Shamir immediately contradicted the PM saying that Likud DID NOT support Bar-Ilan and that there was never a referendum on the subject within the party. This of course, matches Moshe Feiglin's message in NY when he said that the Government would not commit to a Two State Solution and that he was there (in Likud) to make sure of that.
So, now back to Livni. She signed the coalition deal (much to the chagrin of her voters), however, immediately after that, Likud-Betainu moved to limit her role in negotiations with the Palestinians by saying that anything she negotiated had to be first cleared by a party referendum. Then to further complicate things, both Yair Lapid (leader of Yesh Atid / the second largest faction in the Knesset) and Naftali Bennett (leader of HaBayit HaYehudi) said that they would not accept Livni in the role as lead negotiator with the Palestinians.
Along with this, both HaBayit HaYehudi, and Yesh Atid have said that they will not enter into coalition IF the government brings in the Haredi Parties as they are working on a deal to make sure that there is an "equal sharing" of the burden of National Service. The Haredi parties say they are willing to compromise but not as much as what Yesh Atid and HaBayit HaYehudi are asking. So that has stalled out.
So as The Times of Israel says: Sometime in the next 14 days, Netanyahu will ‘swallow the frog’
But don’t be fooled by misleading headlines about looming deadlines and the possibility of new elections. In two weeks Israel will have a new government and Netanyahu will still be prime minister.
As shaky as the situation may appear, and regardless of the current mudslinging – with everyone accusing the other of the worst political crimes — in the end several of the parties currently at loggerheads will sit together at one coalition table as if nothing happened. What today sounds improbable will soon come true. There is just no other way.
Granted, Netanyahu has his principles, and he hates to “boycott” the Haredi parties, as he said Saturday, quoting Yesh Atid. But when push comes to shove, Netanyahu’s political survival will be more important to him than any “natural allies” or personal dislikes. One could argue that if the last four years showed anything about Netanyahu’s political strategy it is that despite all ideological convictions, which he undoubtedly has, he is first and foremost interested in staying in power.And that would be that for the coalition process... But then what? Well first off the government would go after tackling the issue of the Haredi, They would have 68 votes IF HaTanuah stays around (which Livni, like the second coming of Ehud Barak) apparently might do. Now after they do that... then what? Yesh Atid is a fairly centrist party, HaBayit HaYehudi is a far-Right Nationalist Party. Yesh Atid ascribes to the Two State Solution, Jewish Home is a One State Party. Economically, Yesh Atid are closer to social Democrats, HaBayit HaYehudi, are a bit more laize faire. Certainly Yesh Atid is not compatible with Likud-Betainu's Republican like economic leanings. SO while the PM can keep Bennett and Jewish Home in the cabinet they probably could not hold on to Yesh Atid.
AND what will Tzipi do when she gets NOTHING of what she was promised except for the Justice Ministry? If she stays in coalition she will have absolutely no chance to salvage anything from the wreckage that she is creating in her political career.
All the while we have the Americans as Israel's primary backers trying to coalition build in the region and shore up any potential Arab allies against Iranian Hegemonistic aspirations. How do the Americans balance their regional politics with those of their best friend in the region? I don't see the Americans reacting kindly towards the Bennett or Eldad One State solution. I am pretty sure that the PM does not want to go the route of North Korea in creating an isolated state.
SO... what happens from here.
Oh yes and then there is this - breaking...... SHAS is heading into the opposition (at least for today)
According to YNET
Shas is headed to the opposition: Sources in the Ultra-Orthodox party told Ynet Sunday that unless a "dramatic breakthrough" takes place in the next few days, Shas will not be a part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's new government.
Chances of such a breakthrough are slim, a party source said. If Shas is indeed excluded from the coalition, it would be only the second time in 30 years.
Another party source criticized the prime minister, saying that the latest round of negotiations between the Likud and Shas teams was "A waste of our time."
"It's a done deal. Shas will be in the opposition," a senior source privy to the religious party's negotiations, told Ynet. "Today's meeting didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know. Netanyahu had nothing new for us."
I would be curious to see some different takes on this issue.
(livosh1)
ReplyDeleteIf Shas heads into the oppo, does that make it easier for Yesh Atid and HH to join Bibi's coalition? Aside from the fact that Bibi doesn't like Bennett, personally, this would seem to be the ideological coalition that Bibi wants.
Interesting question livosh...
DeleteI think in the immediate time the addition of Shas (and UTJ?) to the opposition does make it easier for Yesh Atid and HaBayit HaYehudi to join into a coalition with Likud-Betainu at least in the near term. However, if both parties are at least sort of true to their principle's or platforms then I don't see how beyond getting some form of National Service Law that any coalition between Likud-Betainu, and Yesh Atid could last, and if Yesh Atid pulls out then the Government falls.
Ideologically, I think the coalition he wants is Likud-Betainu with the Haredi and Jewish Home. But Lapid holds the key to that lasting and because Lapid and Bennett have this "pact", it seems as of today (but it might not tomorrow), that this is not gonna happen.
AND in Israel personality clashes do matter in politics. Sarah Netanyahu absolutely loathes Naftali Bennett. I just don't see how that one holds up longer than 12-18 months.
I like the likely coalition Netanyhu is assembling. With Yesh Atid in, we will finally start to see reform of the military with Haredi required to participate. And with Habayit Yehudi in, Bennet won't allow Jerusalem to be divided and IDF will remain in WB.
ReplyDeletesandbox
I should amend my previous statement about "NOT disagreeing more". I don't disagree that having the Haredi in some form of National Service is a good thing. I do wonder if they should be in Tzahal though. I was talking with a guy the other day during a seminar on Israeli Tactical Point Shooting who was in Tzahal and he felt that putting the Haredi into Combat Units or even the military was a bad idea. Frankly, he didn't really want to serve with them (and having lived in Jerusalem and being exposed to them a lot, I get that). He suggested that they do some sort of infrastructure work instead. Personally I thought that was a better idea.
DeleteOk... so back to it... I have some honest questions sandbox as you say you like this coalition (Likud-Betainu, Yesh Atid, HaBayit Hayehudi, and HaTanuah) and making sure that J'Slem is not divided and that the IDF maintains it's the Occupation of the West Bank.
Here is what I am curious about:
1. The West Bank - Yesh Atid believes in separation between Jews and the general Arab population in the Occupied Territories, and as such (though reluctantly) endorses a Two State Solution. This is part of their platform. Their voters voted for this. HaBayit HaYehudi wants something more along the lines of what you seem to have advocated for (correct me if I am wrong), where Area C is annexed and Areas A&B are maintained as autonomous territories of Israel. How do the two reconcile these very diverse positions without withdrawing on major campaign promises?
Also, PM Netanyahu reiterated his support for Bar-Ilan and a Two State solution, yet Likud-Betainu MK's rejected this. SO... how will that work?
2. ALSO, what do you think Israel should do with the local Arab Population. Jewish Home's solution disenfranchises a great many people who would then have no vote in Israeli elections, though Israel would rule over them (above the autonomous enclaves)? Not too mention that having Area's A & B subject to Israeli Control would create a demographic nightmare and eventually (10 years at most) would make Jews the minority population in their own State. How would you solve that issue?
Also, you should realize that the Arabs would never accept this (Jewish Home's plan I mean), and would either start a war or a very violent intifada which would then require Israeli troops to physically occupy the autonomous areas. How would the Israelis even be able to economically much less physically handle the strain of this?
3. This policy flies directly in the directly in the face of United States stated foreign policy which supports a divided Jerusalem and a Two State framework with land swaps. The U.S. seemingly supported the Olmert negotiations which did divide J'Slem but kept the Kotel, the Jewish Quarter, the neighborhoods in the East and the Major Settlement Blocs. Don't you think that should a plan that you speak of passes that this would cause a major issue with the U.S.? How about the E.U.?
The E.U. (Israel's largest physical trading partner) is already discussing limited sanctions as is. IF this policy became reality, don't you think there would be economic measures? If so, who would then Israel ally themselves with or would they try to go it alone North Korea style?
Finally, what do you think keeping a portion of the populace disenfranchised would do to Israel as a nation? Do you really think Israeli Democracy could survive that?
volley, alot to respond to--and you know more about Israeli politics than I do.
ReplyDeleteTo summarize my positions, I'm not for Israeli annexation of any part of WB, I'm for a freeze or "hold" on any new settlements in WB, and I don't want the IDF to leave the WB. In other words I'm for the status quo. What's wrong with that? Many of your points imply that Israel is somehow in the wrong for controlling the WB. I used to think that, but no longer. To repeat from one of my prior posts, I don't see any moral or legal reason for Israel to leave any part of WB, but I do acknowledge that for practical or diplomatic reasons it may, at some time in the future, be advisable to Israel to compromise (give back) some of the WB. What I'm saying here is, I think, the majority view among Israelis, ergo the coalition we're seeing being created.
I don't have time now to go thru all the points--maybe in the future.
sandbox
Appreciate at least the cursory answer...
DeleteI understand why you don't think the IDF should leave the WB and while I think they should be in parts of it, I do think that they should pull out of parts as well.
But the points I make don't really "imply" anything. They are part of the issue. I think there are some very compelling moral and PRACTICAL reasons that the Israel should not occupy the entire West Bank. I was trying to point out that these reasons because these problems could be existential in nature.
What you suggest could be the majority or at least a sizable minority view of Israelis. I certainly seems that way - however, I think that it is a view on some very practical grounds that is a bit of an illusion. I simply don't think these things can continue on the path they are on for much longer. Something IS going to break one way or another and when it does... look out.
For me, having been to Israel within the past year, I think the most important thing for the long-term viability and prosperity of the country is to integrate the Haredim into thae workforce and the mainstream. Therefore, I really hope that Yesh Atid and Jewish Home stand firm and force a change to the law.
ReplyDeleteI'm not necessarily saying that all Haredi men have to become elite IDF commandos, but they need to do something and contribute their share. Just as importantly, they need to learn skills that they can then apply in the workforce. It also wouldn't hurt if they got some sun and some exercise (and some p**sy) for once.
Heh...
DeleteI agree... I do hope they change the law and I agree the Haredi DO need to contribute something but maybe not as members of Tzahal (the military), perhaps they can do something in terms of National Service, like cleaning parks, building infrastructure, things like that. In that vein, I do hope that Yesh Atid and HaBayit HaYehudi stand firm.
You know in answering you I just thought of something sort of important. That is... Likud-Betainu really DON'T have an incentive to create a law with teeth. Why? Because once that law is done - Likud won't be able to back to the Haredi parties for a bit, it will mean that they have to rely on Yesh Atid and HaBayit HaYehudi to maintain the coalition. Well with HaBayit HaYehudi, there is no problem (at least until the Americans start complaining about the Occupation hindering alliance efforts against Iran but that may not matter to a Far Right Government), but with Yesh Atid and it's moderating influence it will mean that Likud-Betainu itself will be subject to counter policies to what it ran on. AND because of those 19 seats, Lapid could simply wreck the coalition if he wanted too. Not too mention Tzipi and the now impotent HaTanuah.... Who knows what she will do?
As for the Harediim, sun and exercise would be good... The P - part... I won't go into.