Okie, Dokie... There is now a government in place.. What's on the Agenda?

Okie dokie... So now that the Israeli government is in place... What's going to be the agenda going forward particularly with regards to visit from President Obama, just a few short days away?

Well, we know that there is supposed to be a bill on a National Service Law within 45 days presented by Yesh Atid. Presumably this bill was part of the coalition deal that was signed by all of the parties, and that since the Haredi parties were/are not part of this coalition, this deal should most likely go through. However, 45 days in Israeli (or anyones politics) are a lifetime, so this one should pass unless something should unravel.

We also know that the threshold for new parties to enter Knesset (in the next election) will most likely be raised from 2-4%, which would cut out a number of smaller parties and would push voters into larger blocs.

And we also know that the number of ministerial positions will eventually be cut to 18. There are 21 ministers in the present government (down by a 1/3), but this is a change that will streamline the government and is part of Yesh Atid's platform of making the cumbersome Israeli government more efficient.

Here is what we don't know... We don't know what the socio-economic picture of Israel is going to look like as it is tied into a number of factors. PM Netanyahu promised reforms and however he has financial neophyte (by his own admission) Yair Lapid will be running finance. At the same time we have Naftali Bennett serving as head of the Socio-Economic committee of the Knesset. As Ynet reports

Bennett will also serve as chairman of a subcommittee of the Social-Economic Cabinet for standard of living affairs, economic concentration and competitiveness. "The committee will be established within 30 days after the government's establishment," the agreement states.

Bennett will serve as a member of the ministerial committee for privatization affairs and as the acting committee chairman....

Now here is Jewish Home's national economic ideas because from what I have seen they don't really have a "plan"... but they do have something that sounds a lot like the Republican program of "Compassionate Conservatism" (we all know how well that worked out): From the HaBayit HaYehudi website:

Free economy with compassion

---

The State of Israel is a remarkable economic success. However, s large part of the population has missed out on the fruits of this prosperity. We will act to provide equal opportunity that will allow every young person in Israel a chance to succeed. We are committed to improving education, increasing competition, breaking up monopolies and wherever possible, cutting taxes for Israel’s middle classes. Israel must provide a safety net allowing a decent standard of living for those, and only those, who are unable to provide for themselves.

Two things here:

1. As we in the U.S. know cutting taxes without curtailing government spending (BUSH) leads to serious fiscal issues. HaBayit HaYehudi (and their rightist allies in Likud-Betainu) are completely committed to the settling the West Bank. While Likud-Betainu seems to actually have no set position on anything (aside from making their corporate sponsors wealthier), HaBayit HaYehudi is very much interested in not only stepping up the settlement process but in actually annexing the entire West Bank (see their website for details). So the question becomes, IF they are going to CUT taxes, how are they going to pay for their annexation plans.

Keep in mind the U.S. and the European Union (Israel's main financial backers) are very much against this policy and the E.U. has gone so far as to discuss (though not approve) of sanctions. Now Rightist supporters of Israel say they can "go it alone". I would say to them... Really? You think? I don't see that at all. If Europe or the U.S. took economic action, it would severely hurt the nation.

Of course I am not suggesting that Israel should not try to maintain an independent outlook and put sole responsibility for it's security in the hands of others, but, I do think they have to be cognizant of what the economic reality of the nation's actions.

2. The second concerns are energy and water. The Israelis have done a great job in the Water department even in the face of increasing shortages through desalinization effort. But what about energy? Israel right now has two main sources one of which runs through the Sinai, now controlled by the Egyptian fundamentalist group the Muslim Brotherhood. So far, the Egyptians have been abiding by their treaty with Israel (thanks to active U.S. lobbying and assistance), but that could change with annexation, which would surely also re-ignite tension on the Southern Border.

This would leave the Leviathan fields open but those have yet to be developed so energy / revenue from their would be problematic until everything was fully operational. SO... how will this work. Israelis and supporters of Israel need to be asking these questions.

Finally, we come to the situation in the Occupied Territories and governance. Tzipi Livni, who signed onto the coalition over a month ago signed on with the guarantee that she would be Justice Minister AND that she would be in charge of negotiations with the Palestinians answerable only to PM Netanyahu. Everyone who knows anything about Livni knows that she has been an outspoken advocate of the Two State Solution. NOW, in this government it looks like she is going to lose that second part of her position (but, maintaining the Justice Ministry).

The agreement also states that Bennett will be part of a ministerial team established to promote the peace process with the Palestinians, which will be headed by Netanyahu alongside Justice Minister-designate Tzipi Livni, Defense Minister-designate Moshe Yaalon, Finance Minister-designate Yair Lapid and the foreign minister.

Why do I say this? Because, neither Lapid nor Bennett actually agreed to have Livni in that position and now with them in that team they can scuttle any real Two State talks that come up  Remember, Bennett favors annexation, and Ya'alon is not far behind there. SO.. how does the coalition keep it's promise to HaTanuah? My feeling is that they don't. But then again, Livni and HaTanuah were doomed from the start the second they signed that deal. They should have seen this coming and they didn't, so Bibi can chalk another "political kill" (Barak, Mofaz, and Livni) to his belt (I still think Lapid is next).

These are the things that Israelis should be asking about and what the government SHOULD be concerned with, not, with who gets the title of "Deputy Prime Minister" which in reality is the same as being called "Deputy Dog". Personally, I am not so sure exactly how this government will last but one never knows. My bet is that we see elections within 12 months though many people are predicting 18 months..

Shalom.

Let's Make a Deal - Israeli Style

Hat Tip here to charliehall2, who over at Daily Kos, called this one. I argued with him and he was right... Give credit where credit is due (not that he will ever see this, but, still I think it important to give him the credit he deserves for being right).  

Well it looks like coalition talks are all but done. The details are still emerging and Haaretz has a great liveblog going regarding negotiations.

It seems that there was some dealing to get Yesh Atid to move off the Education portfolio (which Lapid really wanted) but, in return they get the Finance Ministry and a lot of extra social program spending. Also, Yesh Atid got their demand for a more "efficient" government which in it's own right caused a bit of a stir with long time Likud MK's.

So with this new coalition... who loses? By far and away the biggest loser is HaTanuah and Tzipi Livni even more than the Haredi Parties who were courted, then shunned, then courted again, then unceremoniously dumped, only to be courted slightly and left out completely in the end.

How did Livni lose? In her anxiousness to get a ministerial position she sold herself and those that believed in her, completely out. She rushed to join the PM in coalition at the slightest promise from PM Netanyahu, who said he would give her the Justice Ministry, plus her party would get the Environmental Portfolio AND the leadership of the Knesset House Committee. Oh and she got promised to be the lead negotiator policy formulator for talks with the Palestinians answerable only to the Prime Minister. Livni ran on a campaign that was critical of the Occupation and Pro-Two States, so those positions would make sense. The only problem is that everyone else involved in the coalition is not on board with any of it.

At first it looked liked Livni might actually play a role in this important issue. Following the election PM Netanyahu made a speech re-committing himself and Israel to Bar-Ilan. But speeches are just that... words. Immediately the #4 on the Likud-Beitanu list Yair Shamir said that Two States was not going to happen and that the PM's speech meant little as it did not represent the positions of Likud-Betainu. Then Netanyahu himself stood in support of some the Rightists in his party when they said, no positions could be discussed without a referendum within the government, thus limiting Livni's power here.

ALSO, Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett said that they didn't even want Livni in any role that had to do with the Palestinians. They simply wouldn't accept it. The PM so far has not exactly risen to support his first coalition partner. But then to add insult to injury, (and because of Yesh Atid's demand for a "leaner" government), it appears that the PM is going to renege on his promise of the Environmental Portfolio and give that to a long time Likud MK while dismissing HaTanuah to a secondary role.

Oh well.. there goes Tzipi. She sold herself, her six seats and those that voted for her, completely "up the river with no paddle". Also, on that front, news from today has Naftali Bennett setting forth to complete his promise of guaranteeing that the government Annex Area C and work their way towards the One State Solution saying:

Habayit Hayehudi officials stress that they will not allow a settlement freeze as part of trust-building measures that the next government will make as a gesture to the Palestinians. "Habayit Hayehudi is entering the coalition in order to be part of it, not to leave it within weeks," said a senior official in the party. "Everyone knows that we will not allow a freeze on settlement construction. The freeze was never a precondition to talks – except for the one-time move Netanyahu carried out." 

"Instead of freezing construction, the government can work to release prisoners or transfer funds to the Palestinian Authority. We will not dismantle the government over such steps," he said.

But Tzipi can be happy, even though they are taking away one of her parties ministerial posts (Environment) they will get a deputy Ministerial post for their trouble. Oh yay!

Poor Kadima even faired worse. After Shaul Mofaz completed the complete self destruction of Kadima when he joined the government and then got absolutely nothing for his efforts except for him moving OUT of the government but wrecking any credibility or shred of self respect he may have had. Instead he went big and paid the price of having the once largest party in Israel become the smallest party in the Knesset. Still, he thought he could make a deal to support the coalition even being talked to about a ministerial position.

Alas, like his former Kadima compatriot Livni, Mofaz was also "tossed to the curb":

Likud officials said it appears Kadima head Shaul Mofaz will not be appointed a minister in the third Netanyahu government. According to one official, "Kadima has only two MKs, which doesn't reach the new quota required for appointing ministers to the government. I don't see how Mofaz can be appointed a minister in the upcoming government.

 And there goes that.

So who will get the "hose" next. My bet... Yesh Atid. They got some of the Ministerial portfolio's they wanted (but not the big two Foreign Minister, and Education that they wanted),  BUT they are going to have a tricky road to get to real economic reform that they promised. On the foreign policy front (or at least the "dealing with the Palestinian front") they stood for two states, with Bennett and the Likud Right in the government, they won't get that. NOW if that's the case where is the funding for their economic reforms if they are paying to annex 60% of the West Bank?

And how do their economic reforms stand against Bennett's platform of lower taxes and market based solutions? My guess, is that Yesh Atid doesn't stand up for any of it, keeps their ministries and eventually gets wiped out in the next election (Kadima style) SHOULD this government come to power. However, that is just a guess on my part.

Oh and there was this:

Sources in Habayit Hayehudi and Shas tell Haaretz that Netanyahu's aides have approached the two parties to explore the possibility of getting them to join the coalition while leaving Yesh Atid out.

 which fizzled but it does "tip" the PM's hand in my opinion.

Who was the big winner here? Naftali Bennett. He took a smaller party and more than doubled it's strength (if you count the Two National Union MK's and the three Habayit Yehudi MK's. he got the ministerial posts he wanted AND he is sitting in basic control of funding for the YESHA (as the government cannot hold without his seats).

Still there is time for other things to unfold and the coalition process is not done yet.  SO.. everything else is speculation (as much as this article is).

Israeli Elections are a-comin'

Well, if you thought the campaign season here (in the U.S.) was fraught with vitriol, charges against patriotism, all manner of crazed predictions... (as they say) "You ain't seen nothing yet". Welcome tot he run-up to the Israeli Elections to be held in one and a half weeks.

So here is a simple graphic I grabbed from Haaretz that should explain the likely / and unlikely coalitions that could come from the next Israeli Elections (Jan. 22nd):

 

GRAPHIC ONE - The Hard Right Coalition

So... what are you looking at here in these graphics. Well in the first graphic you have
P.M. Netanyahu (Likud Betainu), Naftali Bennet (Ha Bayit HaYehudi), Ariyeh Deri (Shas) and what looks to be MK Yaakov Litzman (United Torah Judaism). This is a Hard Rightist coalition that would command approximately 64 seats. Would be dedicated domestically to at least favoring a religious agenda (because both UTJ and Shas would hold the keys to keeping the coalition in tact) and on foreign policy and the Occupation would mark a veer away from PM Netanyahu's plan of an eventual Palestinian State on the West Bank (albeit with only 60% of the West Bank and no Jerusalem) and into a solution like that proposed by Habayit Hayehudi who would Annex Area C, Spend millions of Shekls to create connectors in Area's A & B and create autonomous homeland areas (but not allowing for an independent State) within the remaining parts of the West Bank. Economically, it would be very strongly "capitalist" in a country that is basically a Socialist or Social Democratic nation.

This is NOT the Prime Ministers preferred coalition, though it may indeed be the coalition that is most likely to happen. Why? Because, P.M. Netanyahu first of all DOES NOT really want to be dependent on the Religious elements of society to run the government. While he may be a Rightist he is not a theocrat. This coalition would place the stability of his coalition into the hands of the religious (and in the case of Habayit Hayehudi - religious nationialists). ALSO, Netanyahu does have a plan for at least some of the West Bank and Gaza to be a Palestinian State. While it may not be something that anyone will accept it is a plan. If he has to take on Habayit Hayehudi... that plan goes out the window.

GRAPHIC TWO - The Broad Based Coalition

This is the Prime Ministers favored government. It shows Likud Beitainu (34 seats projected), HaTanuah (Tzipi Livni's new party) (11 Seats), Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid's new party) (11 Seats), Shas (10 seats) and UTJ (6 seats) for a solid Knesset majority of 72 seats. While this coalition would still have to hold on to either of the religious parties to maintain the coalition, either party could leave and not crash the coalition. Given the more politically moderate nature of Ariyeh Deri (compared to Eli Yishai of Shas), this would allow for a foreign policy that is more flexible and more security minded than religious nationalist minded.

This would in appearances and policy represent a Center (Yesh Atid and HaTanuah) / Right (Likud - Betainu) coalition. It would be more more socially responsible than option # 1 in terms of national economics, and would have a religious presence but not necessarily a religious - nationalist presence. HOWEVER, when I say this that is not to say that there would be NO religious - nationalist presence there. Likud, in their primaries, purged a few prominent "moderates" and took on a much more rightist perspective with Danny Danon and Moshe Feiglin moving up the ranks. Interestingly enough... Likud Betainu (who are bleeding votes in the polls to Habayit Hayehudi) are now so pissed off that they are threateing the settlers that vote for Bennett's party instead of Likud.

Support for Naftali Bennett’s ascendant right-wing Jewish Home party comes largely at the expense of the Likud-Yisrael Beytenu list and its leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — and nowhere is this more pronounced than among the largely Orthodox settler population. Reportedly, the trend has prompted Likud to “play rough” and convey the message that if these Israelis fail to vote for Likud-Beytenu in January 22′s election, the consequences for the entire settler movement could be grave.... 

...But now, the sources said, “there’s pressure on the settlers. The message is that, this time round, you have to be with us. Otherwise, there will be repercussions for the future of the settlement movement.”

Along with this very direct threat:

Another Likud member was quoted as saying that, after the elections, the party would compare the number of votes it received in various settlements to the number of Likud members in the same locations.

NOW... how will Likud be able to make good on this threat with people like Danon and Feiglin in the mix, I don't know. It seems to me that no matter what, the settlers will have support from Likud-Beitainu. The real question is whether Lapid and Livni will "play ball" with Netanyahu and his plans. Both are relative moderates on foreign policy issues (which includes the Occupation). Neither one wants to Annex the West Bank into Israel and create a demographic nightmare that would effectively force Israel to become a minority run state. SO, I am not sure how I can see Livni in coalition with Danon, Feiglin or Lieberman (that already did not work out once).

Also, Given Netanyahu's record of absorbing more moderate groups in (Kadima and Labor), I am not sure how far either of them can trust the Prime Minister to work with their agenda's. I think that if either of the two "centrist" parties do go into a coalition government with Likud - Betainu they would try to exact some heavy promises from that group however, as Shaul Mofaz, and Ehud Barak found out... those promises from Likud don't really amount to much.

GRAPHIC THREE - The Left/Center Coalition

Personal Note: (this is the coalition I personally support).
This coalition has virtually no chance of happening however... it is nice to see. This coalition as shown would consist of Shelly Yachimovich (Labor) (18 Seats) heading up a government consisting of Livni, (11 seats), Lapid (11 Seats), Shas (10 Seats), UTJ (6 seats), and Zehava Gal On (Meretz) (5 seats) for a total of 61 seats. A bare majority that would strongly be beholden to the religious parties on those issues.

This has a low likely hood of happening for two reasons. The first is that Likud/Betainu would be able to put together that Rightist coalition without any of the Center - Center Left parties on his own and since it is pretty obvious from the polling Likud - Betainu will win a strong majority of seats they will have the "first crack" at building a government. ALSO.... as the chart indicates the religious parties seem to both prefer that Likud be given the first shot at the government and I don't think would hold out for Yachimovich's very secular and leftist economic platforms. Still it is a nice dream.

GRAPHIC FOUR - The UNITY GOVERNMENT
This is an interesting situation because I think this would probably not happen but... it would have Likud-Betainu (34 seats), Labor (18 Seats), Lapid (10 seats) and Livni (11 seats) plus the religious parties (16 seats). This would give 73 seats NOT counting the religious parties (89 seats with the Religious Parties). Why do I see this as not probably not happening?

Well first of all, I can't see Labor EVER going back into coalition with Likud given their previous experience. I don't see how Yachimovich and Co. could co-exist with Danon and Feiglin, it just doesn't make sense. Plus, Yachimovich has sworn not to enter into a coalition with PM Netanyahu (though we all know how much politicians promises are worth) and to lead a strong opposition. For a long time, Yachimovich and Labor were not outspoken on the Occupation and Settlements, preferring a more neutral path and in fact had not touched the settlement budget but, in response to ever growing criticism (as Assaf noted in a diary a few weeks ago I believe) she has now come out as opposing increased settlement activity and promises to take steps opposite that process.

One might also ask "Where are the Arab Parties and Hadash (a combination of Arabs and Jews with a Communist bent) in this discussion? They sit at 11 seats total. As any observer of this will tell you, all of these parties are non-Zionist in nature and do not accept the idea of Israel as the National State and Homeland of the Jewish people. Because of that, or until they change that, they will never, ever, ever, ever be asked into or be part of an Israeli Ruling Coalition. It just won't happen.

SO that is a very brief rundown of what is happening in the Israeli elections. Of course there is much more to this and I hope that our Israeli Kos folk will add to this and enlighten us with some more info.

Tzipi Livni Speaks Out

Today's Haaretz has a fascinating interview with Kadima leader Tzipi Livni. The questions are direct, the answers seem very straightforward. I recommend reading it here:

Will there be a next time

Some of the highlights include an in depth discussion regarding the The Peace Process, the relationship with the P.A. and an entire view of the Settlement Issue.

Here are a few quick comments:

Haaretz Commentary: ....He’s a partner,” (Abbas) she says, releasing a cloud of smoke in the living room. They met a few months ago in Jordan, and Livni took Haim Ramon, Tzachi Hanegbi and Roni Bar-On with her. They talked for three hours. “Tzachi and Roni emerged with the realization that we’re missing a historic opportunity here,” she says.

That was Livni’s first meeting with Abbas since becoming leader of the opposition. “I thought it was undemocratic to meet with him. A government was elected and I won’t conduct parallel negotiations,” she says.

Q: So why now?

L: “There have been no negotiations for a long time, and he’s accused of not wanting them. I wanted to see for myself what the real situation was, because it’s possible that a few months from now it will already be impossible to solve the conflict. Before the meeting I informed Netanyahu and I contacted him afterward too. I told him that if he would release the people imprisoned before the Oslo Accords, Abu Mazen [Abbas] would return to the negotiating table. Netanyahu refused.”

Q: Does Abbas want to reach an agreement?

L: “I think so.”

Q: Had you been elected prime minister in March 2009, what would you have done about the diplomatic issue? What have we lost in these three years?

L: “An agreement.”

Q: A final status agreement?

L: “A final status agreement. I believe it would have been possible.”

WOW... Powerful stuff. Certainly there is a difference between what Livni and Netanyahu are seeing.

Some other items.....

Q: You meet with Benjamin Netanyahu regularly for personal updates. Is his comparison between [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad and Adolf Hitler, between the Holocaust and Iran, a manipulation for public relations purposes?

L:“No.”

Q: Does he really believe that Hitler is sitting there in Tehran and planning another Holocaust? Is it profound and authentic for him?

L: “I think so. Absurdly, Netanyahu and another group that’s with him are turning the State of Israel into a collective, larger ghetto, out of a Jewish fear of a Holocaust. Netanyahu’s perception of the threats is that of a small country surrounded by enemies, and that’s become an ideology that may be politically advantageous. One day as he stood on the dais he made a statement that really made me angry: “What is happening to us, the isolation of the State of Israel, is not because of what we say or do, but because of what we are.”

Q: Classic victimhood.

L: “Exactly. It makes no difference what I do, the only thing left to us is to gather together, preferably in a shelter, and wait until the danger subsides. What I consider dangerous is that it leads to fear of the ‘other’ among us, draft bills that undermine equality and minority rights, that silence people. He recently said that the newspaper you write for is an existential threat to the State of Israel. Haaretz and The New York Times. Haaretz and its six readers. The problem is that those six readers are English-speaking readers, and that’s why it bothers Netanyahu. Israel is now ruled by the most right-wing and weakest government in its history, because we have no legitimacy to act. The Churchillian thing to do would be to try to reach an agreement related to the Israeli concept of security. Netanyahu sees that as something Chamberlain would do, an act of surrender. He sees an agreement as surrender.”

Q: What do you think of the Netanyahus’ attempt to control the media?

L: “He believed that his downfall during his first round as prime minister was related not to his actions or his character, but to media criticism. That’s why he came to power with the intention of controlling the media. And that was done in several ways: One is Israel Hayom. The same person [Sheldon Adelson] who now distributes the freebie newspaper that reflects the prime minister’s agenda and exalts his name, is also trying to ensure that the person Netanyahu thinks he can get along with [Newt Gingrich] will be elected president of the United States.”

As I said very interesting stuff. Please read the whole article at Haaretz (link at the top) it is very, very interesting.