Let's Make a Deal - Israeli Style

Hat Tip here to charliehall2, who over at Daily Kos, called this one. I argued with him and he was right... Give credit where credit is due (not that he will ever see this, but, still I think it important to give him the credit he deserves for being right).  

Well it looks like coalition talks are all but done. The details are still emerging and Haaretz has a great liveblog going regarding negotiations.

It seems that there was some dealing to get Yesh Atid to move off the Education portfolio (which Lapid really wanted) but, in return they get the Finance Ministry and a lot of extra social program spending. Also, Yesh Atid got their demand for a more "efficient" government which in it's own right caused a bit of a stir with long time Likud MK's.

So with this new coalition... who loses? By far and away the biggest loser is HaTanuah and Tzipi Livni even more than the Haredi Parties who were courted, then shunned, then courted again, then unceremoniously dumped, only to be courted slightly and left out completely in the end.

How did Livni lose? In her anxiousness to get a ministerial position she sold herself and those that believed in her, completely out. She rushed to join the PM in coalition at the slightest promise from PM Netanyahu, who said he would give her the Justice Ministry, plus her party would get the Environmental Portfolio AND the leadership of the Knesset House Committee. Oh and she got promised to be the lead negotiator policy formulator for talks with the Palestinians answerable only to the Prime Minister. Livni ran on a campaign that was critical of the Occupation and Pro-Two States, so those positions would make sense. The only problem is that everyone else involved in the coalition is not on board with any of it.

At first it looked liked Livni might actually play a role in this important issue. Following the election PM Netanyahu made a speech re-committing himself and Israel to Bar-Ilan. But speeches are just that... words. Immediately the #4 on the Likud-Beitanu list Yair Shamir said that Two States was not going to happen and that the PM's speech meant little as it did not represent the positions of Likud-Betainu. Then Netanyahu himself stood in support of some the Rightists in his party when they said, no positions could be discussed without a referendum within the government, thus limiting Livni's power here.

ALSO, Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett said that they didn't even want Livni in any role that had to do with the Palestinians. They simply wouldn't accept it. The PM so far has not exactly risen to support his first coalition partner. But then to add insult to injury, (and because of Yesh Atid's demand for a "leaner" government), it appears that the PM is going to renege on his promise of the Environmental Portfolio and give that to a long time Likud MK while dismissing HaTanuah to a secondary role.

Oh well.. there goes Tzipi. She sold herself, her six seats and those that voted for her, completely "up the river with no paddle". Also, on that front, news from today has Naftali Bennett setting forth to complete his promise of guaranteeing that the government Annex Area C and work their way towards the One State Solution saying:

Habayit Hayehudi officials stress that they will not allow a settlement freeze as part of trust-building measures that the next government will make as a gesture to the Palestinians. "Habayit Hayehudi is entering the coalition in order to be part of it, not to leave it within weeks," said a senior official in the party. "Everyone knows that we will not allow a freeze on settlement construction. The freeze was never a precondition to talks – except for the one-time move Netanyahu carried out." 

"Instead of freezing construction, the government can work to release prisoners or transfer funds to the Palestinian Authority. We will not dismantle the government over such steps," he said.

But Tzipi can be happy, even though they are taking away one of her parties ministerial posts (Environment) they will get a deputy Ministerial post for their trouble. Oh yay!

Poor Kadima even faired worse. After Shaul Mofaz completed the complete self destruction of Kadima when he joined the government and then got absolutely nothing for his efforts except for him moving OUT of the government but wrecking any credibility or shred of self respect he may have had. Instead he went big and paid the price of having the once largest party in Israel become the smallest party in the Knesset. Still, he thought he could make a deal to support the coalition even being talked to about a ministerial position.

Alas, like his former Kadima compatriot Livni, Mofaz was also "tossed to the curb":

Likud officials said it appears Kadima head Shaul Mofaz will not be appointed a minister in the third Netanyahu government. According to one official, "Kadima has only two MKs, which doesn't reach the new quota required for appointing ministers to the government. I don't see how Mofaz can be appointed a minister in the upcoming government.

 And there goes that.

So who will get the "hose" next. My bet... Yesh Atid. They got some of the Ministerial portfolio's they wanted (but not the big two Foreign Minister, and Education that they wanted),  BUT they are going to have a tricky road to get to real economic reform that they promised. On the foreign policy front (or at least the "dealing with the Palestinian front") they stood for two states, with Bennett and the Likud Right in the government, they won't get that. NOW if that's the case where is the funding for their economic reforms if they are paying to annex 60% of the West Bank?

And how do their economic reforms stand against Bennett's platform of lower taxes and market based solutions? My guess, is that Yesh Atid doesn't stand up for any of it, keeps their ministries and eventually gets wiped out in the next election (Kadima style) SHOULD this government come to power. However, that is just a guess on my part.

Oh and there was this:

Sources in Habayit Hayehudi and Shas tell Haaretz that Netanyahu's aides have approached the two parties to explore the possibility of getting them to join the coalition while leaving Yesh Atid out.

 which fizzled but it does "tip" the PM's hand in my opinion.

Who was the big winner here? Naftali Bennett. He took a smaller party and more than doubled it's strength (if you count the Two National Union MK's and the three Habayit Yehudi MK's. he got the ministerial posts he wanted AND he is sitting in basic control of funding for the YESHA (as the government cannot hold without his seats).

Still there is time for other things to unfold and the coalition process is not done yet.  SO.. everything else is speculation (as much as this article is).