After the Haredi.... The Possible fall of the Right

Hat tip to fizziks who made me think of this with his comment in another diary:

Building a coalition is a tricky business. It is not just about building one for short term gain but for building something that can last. To move forward, nations need stability and now is a time that nations in the Middle East need to move forward.

Here is an angle on the coalition talks which I believe needs to be considered by all parties and I think will lead to issues down the road. Ok... let's say that indeed Bibi does "swallow the frog" and forms a coalition with Yesh Atid and Habayit HaYehudi, that would give him 68 seats (which includes the now useless HaTanuah Party and it's more useless Tzipi Livni). Now, he has a comfortable majority (if his own party holds discipline) to pass a comprehensive Haredi Draft Law. This is something a large majority of Israel wants and in my opinion something Israel needs. So the PM forms this coalition and passes this law. Great. Kol HaKavod. He has done something that needed to get done.

Then what? Here is where Likud-Betainu runs into problems. Like their friends in the Republican Party in the U.S. they have no comprehensive strategy about anything else aside from privatizing the economy, plys they want building of more settlements, and increasing the PM's friends cash reserves (ok, ok that's a bit harsh but....).

At some point this lurching from position to position without a clear direction is going to run afoul of one his two major coalition partners and that is most likely Yesh Atid. Why? Because Yesh Atid is more centrist. As long as Naftali Bennett gets to see the settlement venture and the annexation of the West Bank continue... oh and sees tax cuts... he is cool with whatever Likud will do. As Bennett likes to say, HaBayit Hayehudi is indeed a natural partner for the Likud and after the primary where the Hard Right won influence, now more than ever, that is true.

But what happens when the coalition runs counter to Yesh Atid? Remember, here is Yesh Atid's platform

• Reforming the increasingly ineffective system of government
• Overhauling the educational system which is currently at an all-time low
• Creating a more equitable system for the enlistment of young Israelis in serving their country
• Jump starting the economy through small business assistance for the middle class
• Providing housing opportunities for IDF veterans and young couples

And they will run counter to the Prime Ministers party just on these parts alone.

Also there is Yesh Atid's stance on negotiations (which is not emphasized at all but still....)

3. The goal of the negotiations is to reach two nation-states with recognized international borders that have no demands from each other.

4. These borders will take into account Israel’s security considerations and the reality that has been created since 1967. Both sides will recognize that it is in their mutual interest to leave the settlement blocs in Israel’s hands. If necessary, there will be negotiations over land swaps.

which are similar to the PM's ideas (or closer to them than to say Livni, or say anything negotiated in the past), still they are views that have been rejected by Bennett (which has annexation as a major part of his platform) and by the Hard Right (Danon, Sa'ar, Feiglin, Shamir etc... ) in his own party.

Remember, Lapid is eyeing the P.M.'s position. So really, what does he have to lose simply bailing out of the coalition as part of a "principled" response to Likud's gamesmanship? According to post election polls, where there to be new elections, Yesh Atid would win those elections. So in reality the government would have to follow where Yesh Atid leads (this is assuming that Lapid actually "sticks to his guns" (so to speak).

Meanwhile in PM Netanyahu / Likud-Betainuland things are not so bright. Because he is pissing off the Haredi, now he runs into an issue of maintaining his government for any period of time longer than 12 months. IF he goes along with Bar-Ilan he keeps Lapid but loses at least part of his party along with Bennett. Too keep power then, he has to turn to Shelly and Avodah, as well as Mofaz (who he royally screwed once). BUT how does he do that while continuing the economic policies that he (and his Republican friends here in the U.S. espouse). No way he does that.

But if he doesn't go along with Lapid's economic reforms OR his foreign policy (and apparently Yesh Atid wants the FM post), then he solidifies his base, certainly keeps Bennett and then what? He has bupkis. Just him and Tzipi, and Naftali sailing along with their 50 seats and no coalition. Can he go back to the Haredi? As long as he does not pass a comprehensive draft law, but, if that happens he could now lose Bennett who is staking a lot on that.

And don't forget if he spins harder right... he loses a great deal with the U.S. who is trying its hardest to build up regional support against Iran. The U.S. would be forced into an uncomfortable position of going against NATO ally Turkey as well as Egypt. Because unlike what Republicans and their ODS allies want (no U.S. engagement with Egypt), having an Iranian allied Egypt would be a threat not only to Israel and North Africa but to our allies in the Gulf as well.

So, in angering the Haredi... This is what he has done. What could he have done to fix things? Were I him and if I wanted to keep power, I would have gone after Bennett first and foremost, gotten him and then booked the Haredi parties. As we know Livni just wanted a Cabinet post so he would have gotten her as well. He would have been sitting at 67 seats, would have consolidated the hard right in his party and that would have been that. Had Bennett been approached first he probably would never have formed his pact with Lapid.

From a personal perspective I am happy that the Right seems screwed here and that the Moderates have a much better chance at getting the reins of power back in Israel. I think it is better for the nation on a number of different fronts. Rather than complain though, I would like to add this point of advocacy... Were I Lapid, I would stand firm and NOT go into the coalition without any express written and specific public declarations regarding policy from the Netanyahu Government. He does not have the seats the build a Center / Center Left coalition without the Haredi parties either. BUT if new elections have to happen, voters will see him as much more principled IF he stands with his beliefs. And that could make a difference, particularly if he goes through some pre-election coalition building. Personally, I would love to see a government of Yesh Atid, Labor, Kadima, HaTanuah, and Meretz but that is only 48 seats. so it won't happen.

Really, what I think needs to happen is that Israeli parties need to get specific about what they believe. General platforms are just not getting it done for anyone. I mean, Likud-Betainu... What do they stand for? Where are their specifics about anything? And they are the leading party... Ohoh time for a new diary.

My suggestion here is that both the Haredi and Yesh Atid / HaBayit Hayehudi need to find a compromise situation. They need to find something in a draft law that allows for Haredi Inducted Community Service (like a modified VISTA / WPA program as an alternative to military service,

Now is a time when Israel needs to pick a direction rather than lurching about like a "drunken sailor" on a stormy sea. But whatever direction they pick, I believe this is a critical point in their history and they are going to need friends.

AND BREAKING:

UTJ (United Torah Judaism) has called for new Knesset elections.

In their brief, UJT explained that they are asking that the Knesset be dissolved because "The State of Israel would be run by irresponsible individuals, motivated by nothing by their hatred of others."

UTJ MK Uri Maklev, who drafted the bill, explained that, "The State of Israel is in the midst of a highly complex time: The Iranian threat is growing and our Palestinian neighbors are garnering international support for their demand for an Arab state," he wrote in his brief.

Maklev also noted the upsets in the Arab regimes surrounding Israel, especially the civil war in Syria; the complex economic situation and the upcoming budget cuts, as reasons why new elections must be called.