After the Haredi.... The Possible fall of the Right

Hat tip to fizziks who made me think of this with his comment in another diary:

Building a coalition is a tricky business. It is not just about building one for short term gain but for building something that can last. To move forward, nations need stability and now is a time that nations in the Middle East need to move forward.

Here is an angle on the coalition talks which I believe needs to be considered by all parties and I think will lead to issues down the road. Ok... let's say that indeed Bibi does "swallow the frog" and forms a coalition with Yesh Atid and Habayit HaYehudi, that would give him 68 seats (which includes the now useless HaTanuah Party and it's more useless Tzipi Livni). Now, he has a comfortable majority (if his own party holds discipline) to pass a comprehensive Haredi Draft Law. This is something a large majority of Israel wants and in my opinion something Israel needs. So the PM forms this coalition and passes this law. Great. Kol HaKavod. He has done something that needed to get done.

Then what? Here is where Likud-Betainu runs into problems. Like their friends in the Republican Party in the U.S. they have no comprehensive strategy about anything else aside from privatizing the economy, plys they want building of more settlements, and increasing the PM's friends cash reserves (ok, ok that's a bit harsh but....).

At some point this lurching from position to position without a clear direction is going to run afoul of one his two major coalition partners and that is most likely Yesh Atid. Why? Because Yesh Atid is more centrist. As long as Naftali Bennett gets to see the settlement venture and the annexation of the West Bank continue... oh and sees tax cuts... he is cool with whatever Likud will do. As Bennett likes to say, HaBayit Hayehudi is indeed a natural partner for the Likud and after the primary where the Hard Right won influence, now more than ever, that is true.

But what happens when the coalition runs counter to Yesh Atid? Remember, here is Yesh Atid's platform

• Reforming the increasingly ineffective system of government
• Overhauling the educational system which is currently at an all-time low
• Creating a more equitable system for the enlistment of young Israelis in serving their country
• Jump starting the economy through small business assistance for the middle class
• Providing housing opportunities for IDF veterans and young couples

And they will run counter to the Prime Ministers party just on these parts alone.

Also there is Yesh Atid's stance on negotiations (which is not emphasized at all but still....)

3. The goal of the negotiations is to reach two nation-states with recognized international borders that have no demands from each other.

4. These borders will take into account Israel’s security considerations and the reality that has been created since 1967. Both sides will recognize that it is in their mutual interest to leave the settlement blocs in Israel’s hands. If necessary, there will be negotiations over land swaps.

which are similar to the PM's ideas (or closer to them than to say Livni, or say anything negotiated in the past), still they are views that have been rejected by Bennett (which has annexation as a major part of his platform) and by the Hard Right (Danon, Sa'ar, Feiglin, Shamir etc... ) in his own party.

Remember, Lapid is eyeing the P.M.'s position. So really, what does he have to lose simply bailing out of the coalition as part of a "principled" response to Likud's gamesmanship? According to post election polls, where there to be new elections, Yesh Atid would win those elections. So in reality the government would have to follow where Yesh Atid leads (this is assuming that Lapid actually "sticks to his guns" (so to speak).

Meanwhile in PM Netanyahu / Likud-Betainuland things are not so bright. Because he is pissing off the Haredi, now he runs into an issue of maintaining his government for any period of time longer than 12 months. IF he goes along with Bar-Ilan he keeps Lapid but loses at least part of his party along with Bennett. Too keep power then, he has to turn to Shelly and Avodah, as well as Mofaz (who he royally screwed once). BUT how does he do that while continuing the economic policies that he (and his Republican friends here in the U.S. espouse). No way he does that.

But if he doesn't go along with Lapid's economic reforms OR his foreign policy (and apparently Yesh Atid wants the FM post), then he solidifies his base, certainly keeps Bennett and then what? He has bupkis. Just him and Tzipi, and Naftali sailing along with their 50 seats and no coalition. Can he go back to the Haredi? As long as he does not pass a comprehensive draft law, but, if that happens he could now lose Bennett who is staking a lot on that.

And don't forget if he spins harder right... he loses a great deal with the U.S. who is trying its hardest to build up regional support against Iran. The U.S. would be forced into an uncomfortable position of going against NATO ally Turkey as well as Egypt. Because unlike what Republicans and their ODS allies want (no U.S. engagement with Egypt), having an Iranian allied Egypt would be a threat not only to Israel and North Africa but to our allies in the Gulf as well.

So, in angering the Haredi... This is what he has done. What could he have done to fix things? Were I him and if I wanted to keep power, I would have gone after Bennett first and foremost, gotten him and then booked the Haredi parties. As we know Livni just wanted a Cabinet post so he would have gotten her as well. He would have been sitting at 67 seats, would have consolidated the hard right in his party and that would have been that. Had Bennett been approached first he probably would never have formed his pact with Lapid.

From a personal perspective I am happy that the Right seems screwed here and that the Moderates have a much better chance at getting the reins of power back in Israel. I think it is better for the nation on a number of different fronts. Rather than complain though, I would like to add this point of advocacy... Were I Lapid, I would stand firm and NOT go into the coalition without any express written and specific public declarations regarding policy from the Netanyahu Government. He does not have the seats the build a Center / Center Left coalition without the Haredi parties either. BUT if new elections have to happen, voters will see him as much more principled IF he stands with his beliefs. And that could make a difference, particularly if he goes through some pre-election coalition building. Personally, I would love to see a government of Yesh Atid, Labor, Kadima, HaTanuah, and Meretz but that is only 48 seats. so it won't happen.

Really, what I think needs to happen is that Israeli parties need to get specific about what they believe. General platforms are just not getting it done for anyone. I mean, Likud-Betainu... What do they stand for? Where are their specifics about anything? And they are the leading party... Ohoh time for a new diary.

My suggestion here is that both the Haredi and Yesh Atid / HaBayit Hayehudi need to find a compromise situation. They need to find something in a draft law that allows for Haredi Inducted Community Service (like a modified VISTA / WPA program as an alternative to military service,

Now is a time when Israel needs to pick a direction rather than lurching about like a "drunken sailor" on a stormy sea. But whatever direction they pick, I believe this is a critical point in their history and they are going to need friends.

AND BREAKING:

UTJ (United Torah Judaism) has called for new Knesset elections.

In their brief, UJT explained that they are asking that the Knesset be dissolved because "The State of Israel would be run by irresponsible individuals, motivated by nothing by their hatred of others."

UTJ MK Uri Maklev, who drafted the bill, explained that, "The State of Israel is in the midst of a highly complex time: The Iranian threat is growing and our Palestinian neighbors are garnering international support for their demand for an Arab state," he wrote in his brief.

Maklev also noted the upsets in the Arab regimes surrounding Israel, especially the civil war in Syria; the complex economic situation and the upcoming budget cuts, as reasons why new elections must be called.

The American Diaspora Dilemma

Earlier today while reading a left leaning website regarding Israel and American politics I came across the following quotes:

"American Jews lack the moral courage to criticize Israel publicly when Israel does such things"

and:

 "Perhaps it's time for American Jews to rethink automatic support for Israel."

I would say that the short answer to those comments that it is NOT a lack of moral courage to criticize Israel and "NO, it is NOT time for American Jews to rethink their support for Israel". I think that these comments deserve longer answers though, however, I don't believe that website is the place for those kinds of answers. But here are at least my answers, within a forum that doesn't cater to anti-Semitism and other forms of racism.

Now here is my take formulated through years of Youth Group, Community Activism AND having lived and gone to school in Israel for a year.

Addressing the first comment.... The answer to this is certainly "NO", American Jews do not lack the moral courage to criticize Israel publicly. Aside from the "Good Jews" (heavy sarcasm) at JVP and "post/anti- Zionist: community" who populate the blogosphere in a greater number of comments than actual individuals,  There are many Jewish critics of Israel that are Pro-Zionist who freely criticize the Israeli government in the American Community. One mainstream group that comes to mind is J Street. Over the last few years J Street has gained in popularity within the community, and while not quite being a mainstream movement, it certainly is gaining influence.

But even more to the point. Many of us do criticize the actions of the Israeli Government when we feel that they are acting against the interests of their own people as well as against those of the worldwide Jewish community. However that criticism is now kept within our own community or within sites and forums where these criticisms will not be used as fodder for bigots and racists to twist to their own means so that they can feel good about "Jew Washing" their complaints. Our logic here is sound. WHY would we want to give the people who posted those comments (anti-Semites in this case), something to support their claims, in a forum (in this case an article) that cackles with joy over the diplomatic row between Israel and Europe over Israeli construction in the "E-1 area" outside Jerusalem?

Personally, I have some real issues with this construction (article to follow) and it's after effects. I think, at this time it is an incredibly foolish idea. However, that is not for this article. I just don't feel the need to publicly "bash" Israel in a place where conspiracy theorists, bigots (of all kinds), and people that are completely ignorant of the politics of the situation are welcomed and given a preferred platform. There simply is no need to do that as frankly it won't do any good.

As for the Second comment.... the answer is an unequivocal "NO". In my opinion, here is no need whatsoever to re-think the relationship of American Jews to Israel. Despite any issues with the current government there, I see absolutely zero reason to not continue to support the existence of the Jewish State and what it means to our people.

Understanding history here is the key. For thousands of years the Jewish people have struggled for their place in this world. Israel and it's people represent the success of the Zionist dream that created a modern, dynamic country at a time when most of the world was firmly against the Jewish people. To think that we as a people would be better off without Israel is sheer nonsense. It is simply unimaginable to me that any Jewish person could stand against the nation of Israel.

Now, this doesn't mean accepting or giving credence to everything that the current Right Wing ruling coalition utters. Nor does it mean accepting the policies that Israel seems to be putting place with regards to increased settlement activity in the Occupied Territories. It just means that for the anti-Semite that made these comments, he or she doesn't have to be privy to the discussion - see the answer to the first part.

On the other hand, we also should not be held hostage to the macho fantasy's and bigoted ramblings of the Right. Just because we don't buy their completely distorted view of history, a view fueled by hatred and a strong sense of inadequacy doesn't mean that as American Jews we somehow dislike Israel. Of course to these "wannabee Israelis" (though they would never actually live in Israel as that would require them to actually have to sacrifice, and settle for a lesser standard of living), if one doesn't buy the nonsense and hatred spouted by them... somehow, someway means that we are acting just like an "ostrich:" willing to stick our collective heads in the ground until danger passes.

What the Rightists don't understand is that our sense of history is not governed by hatred or bigotry. Our sense of history is rooted in the pride of our traditions of humanity, understanding and strength of community. It is governed by scholars, warriors and our history as a people. We refuse to give in to the fear that dominates their sector of the community particularly in the U.S. A fear that causes them to abandon every principle they supposedly stand for and even sacrifice their loyalty to their fellow American citizens on the alter of supposedly standing with Israel.

MOREOVER, they claim that only they have a sense of history. That no one else, but them holds the true key to what the Jewish community has gone through for the past 3,000 years. As one deranged columnist writes in the Times of Israel: 

Until progressive-left Jews, who make up the majority in the diaspora, begin to articulate some sense of the history of the Jewish people in the Middle East we can never win the sympathies of world opinion.  It’s probably too late for that, anyway.  The world doesn’t know this history because we fail to enlighten them of it and part of the reason for that is the progressive Politically Correct disinclination to ever say anything negative concerning Islam.

This is a matter of respecting ourselves through articulating our history and if we cannot respect ourselves, then just who will?

Here's a word towards this columnist. Most of us know our history as a people and most of us have plenty of respect for our community that we actually understand our history. We understand the lessons we have learned and continue to learn. Rushing off to try to create Masada plays well in theatres, and in the the living room of wannabee Maccabees but, that's about it. Rather, it is important (and most American Jews do understand this) that we play on our strengths as a culture that values human life and making moral decisions. One thing that has kept our community together throughout 2,500 years of unrelenting persecution is our sense of who we are and what we believe in.

This plays out in our relationship with America. Unlike the bigots on the right, our concern is for our fellow American citizen. The transparent hypocrisy of supposedly standing up for universal human rights (in other words, supporting attacks both verbal and otherwise on Islam and it's adherents) all the while actively supporting, and campaigning for a candidate and a party that stood against human rights for Americans is pathetic to say the least. To actually say that one looks forward to voting for a candidate and a party that actually calls for teaching of Evolution as only a theory, that calls for suppression of civil liberties for America's LGBT community, that calls for supporting only the richest Americans at the expense of 98% of the our population and then to say that they are truly for human rights is completely mind-boggling in its derangement. It would be laughable if it were not so pathetic.

So for most of us, it is "Clowns to the Left of us and Jokers to the Right". Because the hard Left and it's acceptance of anti-Semitism, indeed has become a side-show unto itself. It's a bad joke that has policy support for similar positions on the Hard Right. (witness Hungary and the Right's claim that all Jews should be registerered).. At the same time, the Lunatic Right feels it needs to replay Masada and thinks that Israel should pull away from the U.S. and from the U.N. (Note they only think that sitting in their little living rooms in places like Oakland, California.If they ever had deal with the realities of Israeli life they would probably either crap their pants or fly home on the first plane all while formulating various stories about how tough they are). Funny thing, you know who else wants to see no U.S. Military aid to Israel? You guessed it! The Hard Left.

In the end, our community has faced this challenge and survived. I am confident we will continue too without having to resort to becoming what we hate the most. We are not that weak. 

Winners With a Hard Right... Israel, Egypt, and Hamas (PART 1)

I have wanted to write about this subject and have been gathering my thoughts so here is what I have in Four Parts. I did not want to make this too long for one sitting so... Here goes Part 1:

Now that the dust is settling on the lasted flair up in violence in Gaza the winners and losers are becoming a bit clearer. In all three cases; Israel, Egypt, and the Palestinian Territories (including Gaza) the so far winners are The Rightists in Israel, and Egypt as well as the conservative and proto-fascist Hamas movement. Of course there are other winners as well (the IDF, Israel's Missle Defense Systems, and President Obama, but those victories are much less far reaching for the time being), but the Right in each case came out of this one ahead.

First, let's start with the news of the day...The Winners in Israel.

In Israel, the Likud shed any of it's "moderate facade" and moved Hard Right.


PM Netanyahu votes with wife, Sara in Likud Primaries

From Haaretz: 

After two days of voting, marred by technical problems and various complaints, the Likud primaries ended on Monday night with a clear win for the right-wing branch of the party.

Ministers Benny Begin, Dan Meridor and Michael Eitan were dealt a heavy blow by Likud members in the primary, with all three failing to make the top 10, which probably suggests the end of their long political careers.

Education Minister Gideon Sa'ar was the evening's big winner, together with ministers Gilad Erdan, Silvan Shalom and Yisrael Katz, who were followed by hardliner MK Danny Danon, Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin and the party's probable candidate for defense minister, ex military chief of staff Moshe Ya'alon. MKs Zeev Elkin and Yariv Levin and Minister Yuli Edelstein close out the top 10 of the party's Knesset election list.

Begin was elected 20th on the slate, Meridor placed 28th and Eitan 30th, and were evidently punished by Likud members for their relatively "liberal" positions on issues such as the Supreme Court and freedom of dissent.

So what does this mean... Well, first of all, in the Likud-Betainu agreement it means that Begin, Meriador, and Eitan are O-U-T. One might ask why, since Likud is projected to win 32-38 seats (according to the polls - many found here at Jeremy's Knesset Insider Blog). The reason is due to the agreement Betainu candidates get to place one seat for every two Likud seats earned. For Meriador or Eitan to get in, that list would have to garner a boatload more votes than they are getting now.

To break down the meaning here: Well one thing it means is that there is an unlikely chance at a deal that would look anything what has been discussed in years past with the Palestinians (Olmert, Taba, Oslo, etc... ) With Moshe Ya'alon as DM, Lieberman as FM and the rise of Moshe Feiglin and Danny Danon, there is an even better liklihood of either total annexation of the West Bank OR The Netanyahu -Lieberman plan of Israel giving back 50% of the West Bank (which would not include J'slem or the Jordan River Valley). How Likud or Betainu will address the problems caused by this no one knows, but, it certainly would not be along the lines of past governments and would be harder right even then Arik Sharon's Kadima Party.
As one can see from the Poll results, the early lead goes to the Rightist parties 65-70 to 45-50 to the Center, Center-Left (not counting the Arab Parties and Hadash who would never be part of any coalition). While if one combines Avodah, Yesh Atid, Kadima (which right now is "dead in the water") and Tzipi Livni (wherever she may end up) the Center / Center Left can match Likud-Betainu BUT can not form a coalition that would get to the magic number of 61 Knesset seats.

NOW, even more disturbing than Feiglin and Danon occupying powerful positions (not too mention Sa'ar, and the Betainu crowd, is the total rise of a combined National Union, Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) party, coupled with N.U. breakaway and new home to Kahanists Michael Ben-Ari and Ariyeh Eldad in the "Strong Israel" party.

Of course, the Israeli election is still three months away and a lot can happen in those three months so no one can say that the future is written in stone A lot seems to depend on what Tzipi Livni does. But if she runs as an independent (caucusing with Labor and Y.A.) the government would be forced to ally itself the hardest of the hard right (assuming that Lapid remains true to his word and wouldn't join a Netanyahu - Lierberman government.

Now as many here know I am a supporter of the Israeli Center / Center-Left (particularly Avodah). So, let's hear what they had to say regarding this; (From Ynet)

Addressing the results, Labor Chairwoman Shelly Yachimovich said, "The list chosen, accompanied by (Avigdor) Lieberman's extremists who will be part of it, makes the Likud a radical right-wing party."

Meretz Chairwoman Zahava Gal-On commented on the results of the Likud primaries, saying: "I see the Likud list and it makes me feel bad. We see how settlers have turned the Likud into a nationalistic, extremist rightwing list; how the liberal Likud has passed away today."

"Centrist parties must make a commitment not to join Netanyahu, who will form a radical rightwing government," Gal-On told Ynet.

The Yesh Atid Party, chaired by Yair Lapid, stated that "The Likud has presented a worrying list that revolves around 'old politics' deals and ideological extremism."
 
"This is no longer the Likud of Menachem Begin and national politics; whoever votes for the Likud-Beiteinu list will get a branch of the National Union Party," the Yesh Atid statement read.

I think in this case Yair Lapid makes a good point in saying that if the Center parties remain strong... The hard Right will have a hard time governing, AND, if Yesh Atid is smart about it, they may go after folks like Begin, and Meriador and become a straight up Centrist party. Again that is not my particular cup of tea but I can see it's appeal and Israelis that I talk to I think would like that group.

There is a great deal at stake here and so we shall see as the campaigns get rolling. But as Likud moves hard Right this is going to present a very interesting challenge for the "soul" of Israel.