Lately, those of us that follow these things have been hearing non-stop about how Republicans are posting huge gains with Jewish American voters. We keep hearing Obama Derangement Syndrome (ODS) Sufferers telling us how the Democratic Party is "Bleeding" Jewish voters and how the Republicans are surging in our polity. Now, personally, while I have seen some uptick in disappointment with President Obama in parts of the Jewish Polity, I have certainly NOT seen a groundswell of reversal of Jewish Political support for the President.
However, that has not stopped the Right Wing, and their ODS drones, from trying to hype their narrative of Jewish Support for the Republican Party. In fact, this hype has even been picked up by Israeli Papers and spread... BUT is this true? Let's look at the facts.
First of all the Pew voters poll in 2011 (a poll with at 6.5% margin of error) indicated a +9% rise in Republican or Leaning Republican tendency in American Jewish voters. In 2008 the Pew Poll, showed that 72% of Jewish Voters leaned Democratic while only 20% leaned Republican. In 2012 the Poll shows that 65% of Jewish Voters lean Democratic while 29% lean Republican. NOW, in the election it turned out that 78% of Jewish Americans voted Democratic. Now in the 2011 poll the representative sample size was only 330 people - about HALF of the number asked in 2008 (645 people), so there is that. In the AJC poll of 2011 (a better indicator) there was a 9% decrease in identified Democratic Jewish voters BUT also a 1% DECREASE in Republican voters with the 10% gain of voters then saying they were Independents.
But even more telling that this is pure hype is the fact that according to this years Pew Poll and last years Pew Poll the Republicans have actually LOST GROUND amongst Jewish voters. In 2010 the poll said 33% of Jewish voters leaned Republican while 60% leaned Democrat. SO in effect the Democratic party has regained 5% points of it's support and the Republicans lost 4% points of their support in just the last year.
SO, in the polls... is the Republican party really picking up a "groundswell" of Jewish support. Maybe not so much.
But now even more bad news for the ODS'ers and their Right Wing support group. In Florida, a key state with a large Jewish voting bloc - Jewish voters were only 1% of the Republican Primary vote. In 2008, they were 3%. THEN in the Nevada Caucuses, where Jewish voters were only 2% of the Republican Primary vote in 2008, guess what % they were in 2012... Wait for it.... Wait for it..... 2% - whoa, now there is a "groundswell".
Really all this is, typical Rovian re-definition of reality. Has the Democratic Party lost some of it's influence with Jewish voters? To date, yes it has, some. Will 78% of the Jewish voting population vote for President Obama again, I doubt it. But I would be willing to bet that the number of Jewish Democratic voters will still be higher than 70% (personally I see around 72-73% as a number).
Given the facts, that the President and the Democratic Party have been stalwart friends to the Jewish people and the Jewish State of Israel it seems to me that the only reason for this drop off is that the Party has not done a great job in outreach to Jewish voters and has not touted their strong, strong record of friendship and advocacy for both the Jewish community as well as support for Israel. This they need to do, and if they do it I have no doubt they will pick up more Jewish votes.
Wish there was less demonization and labeling others with whom there is disagreement. It's easy to claim the progressive mantle, but such behavior does not seem very progressive to me.
ReplyDeleteThat said, according to The Hill:
The Pew analysis found that among Americans overall, more self-identified independents say they now lean Republican.
But with Jews, it has gone even further.
“Jews are the only religious group where we actually see significant change and increase among the number of people identifying themselves as Republican, not just leaning toward the GOP,” said Greg Smith, a senior researcher for Pew.
To be sure, Jewish voters remain by and large supportive of Democratic candidates. Sixty-five percent of Jews in 2011 identified as or leaned Democratic, according to Pew. But the drop is enough to spark concerns that it could have a real effect in battleground states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
“The poll speaks for itself. It is something the Democratic Party needs to look at,” said an aide to a Jewish Democratic member of Congress.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/208709-pew-study-reignites-debate-about-jewish-vote
Who knows what will be the result in the fall. The Republicans have not even chosen their candidate and the events are yet to unfold. One can spin until the result is to become dizzy. However, I'll trust a Pew senior researcher anyday over one who says that its results are "Rovian re-defintition."
Criticism of Obama is not by definition derangement. I do not have ODS in any way, shape or form. Nor do I suspect does Pew or the Democratic aide quoted above. Hopefully, the diarist will accept this comment without resorting to pejoratives or censorship, both of which seem more reactionary when exercised than progressive.
Ok... I am telling you this, one time. STOP WHINING about how I answer your criticsm. If you continue to do so I will delete your comments. Period.
DeleteThat said - let me address your post.
You may trust Pew's senior researchers who only used half the sample size they did in 2008 AND have a margin of error of 6.5%. Personally, that is fine. But even in Pew's commentary this supposed groundswell has simply FAILED to materialize. As I noted in the article in Florida Jewish Republicans were only 1% of the Republican electorate. In 2008 they were 3%. I am sorry but that is not indicitive of a party switch and plays into the numbers of the 2011 AJC poll.
Second the Poll itself is not "Rovian re-definition" I didn't say it was. You are simply wrong in your assertion. What I clearly said was that the SPIN put out by the ODS'ers and their Republican allies was "Rovian re-definition". I think you need to read the diary/article again.
Third, Criticsm of the President when based on facts is not derangement. But criticizing the President and his supporters based on fantasy is.
The spin put up by the ODS'ers and Republicans is nothing short of symptomatic of derangement. Simply put the Pew Poll shows Republican support SLIPPING from 2010's numbers.
Who knows where things will play out in 2012. We shall see.
(livosh1)
ReplyDeleteThanks for the diary, volley. Bottom line: Jewish support for Obama and the Democratic Party remains strong, and will continue that way through November. Sure there may be mild fluctuations, just like there were slight fluctuations from 2000, 2004, and 2008. BFD. Clearly, the ODS rhetoric is silly and irrelevant. Poor souls . . . I am sure their head explosions will be a mighty ugly sight. Heh.
Indeed - it is almost comical watching them crow about the Pew Poll and then realizing... "Hey, wait a minute - we LOST support from 2010 - whoops".
DeleteGiven that President Obama just exploded another of their myths by freezing Iranian assets, the only thing they will be able to run on with the Jewish community is the moving the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. AND if that is what one's vote is worth.... They weren't voting for the President anyway.
(livosh1)
ReplyDeleteExactly, volley. "They weren't voting for the President anyway." Some are just too dishonest to admit that.
Well that is what I don't get. Some of them feel it necessary to pretend to be Democrats, but freely post at sites that endorse Republicans and their meme's. Then if you will notice they let any lie on those sites stand, but love to post here or the G.O.S. questioning even the smallest bit of support for President Obama. It's sad that this the best they can do.
DeleteWell oldschool26 made another whining attack, so I deleted it.
ReplyDelete(livosh1)
DeleteWhy am I not surprised? :)
Heh.... You know his response also had an angle that was different and had he simply posted that, I would have left it up. I disagreed with it but it could have been discussed. HOWEVER, he started off by saying:
Delete"Delete it then. But quit claiming to be progressive."
and went from there. SO I granted him his wish and deleted it. ;-)
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
DeleteIn the end, the 2012 election will tell. But my prediction is that Jewish voters will come home and Obama will take 70% of the Jewish vote. These Republicans are just offering the same old stale endless tax cuts, rejection of science, and petty theocracy that brought this country to its knees. Jews are smart, and they don't like that stuff. And who knows, maybe moving the embassy to Jerusalem will be an October surprise.
ReplyDeleteWell fiz.. I think 70% might be right, I personally think 72-73% based on who the nominee is (If Ron Paul - which it would not be, it would be close to 98% - heh).
DeleteI would be ok with that "October surprise" (though I would not be that surprised in this administration). Either way, I think the Republican meme is a "fail" and no matter how they dress it up, it will remain a "fail".