Israeli Elections are a-comin'

Well, if you thought the campaign season here (in the U.S.) was fraught with vitriol, charges against patriotism, all manner of crazed predictions... (as they say) "You ain't seen nothing yet". Welcome tot he run-up to the Israeli Elections to be held in one and a half weeks.

So here is a simple graphic I grabbed from Haaretz that should explain the likely / and unlikely coalitions that could come from the next Israeli Elections (Jan. 22nd):

 

GRAPHIC ONE - The Hard Right Coalition

So... what are you looking at here in these graphics. Well in the first graphic you have
P.M. Netanyahu (Likud Betainu), Naftali Bennet (Ha Bayit HaYehudi), Ariyeh Deri (Shas) and what looks to be MK Yaakov Litzman (United Torah Judaism). This is a Hard Rightist coalition that would command approximately 64 seats. Would be dedicated domestically to at least favoring a religious agenda (because both UTJ and Shas would hold the keys to keeping the coalition in tact) and on foreign policy and the Occupation would mark a veer away from PM Netanyahu's plan of an eventual Palestinian State on the West Bank (albeit with only 60% of the West Bank and no Jerusalem) and into a solution like that proposed by Habayit Hayehudi who would Annex Area C, Spend millions of Shekls to create connectors in Area's A & B and create autonomous homeland areas (but not allowing for an independent State) within the remaining parts of the West Bank. Economically, it would be very strongly "capitalist" in a country that is basically a Socialist or Social Democratic nation.

This is NOT the Prime Ministers preferred coalition, though it may indeed be the coalition that is most likely to happen. Why? Because, P.M. Netanyahu first of all DOES NOT really want to be dependent on the Religious elements of society to run the government. While he may be a Rightist he is not a theocrat. This coalition would place the stability of his coalition into the hands of the religious (and in the case of Habayit Hayehudi - religious nationialists). ALSO, Netanyahu does have a plan for at least some of the West Bank and Gaza to be a Palestinian State. While it may not be something that anyone will accept it is a plan. If he has to take on Habayit Hayehudi... that plan goes out the window.

GRAPHIC TWO - The Broad Based Coalition

This is the Prime Ministers favored government. It shows Likud Beitainu (34 seats projected), HaTanuah (Tzipi Livni's new party) (11 Seats), Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid's new party) (11 Seats), Shas (10 seats) and UTJ (6 seats) for a solid Knesset majority of 72 seats. While this coalition would still have to hold on to either of the religious parties to maintain the coalition, either party could leave and not crash the coalition. Given the more politically moderate nature of Ariyeh Deri (compared to Eli Yishai of Shas), this would allow for a foreign policy that is more flexible and more security minded than religious nationalist minded.

This would in appearances and policy represent a Center (Yesh Atid and HaTanuah) / Right (Likud - Betainu) coalition. It would be more more socially responsible than option # 1 in terms of national economics, and would have a religious presence but not necessarily a religious - nationalist presence. HOWEVER, when I say this that is not to say that there would be NO religious - nationalist presence there. Likud, in their primaries, purged a few prominent "moderates" and took on a much more rightist perspective with Danny Danon and Moshe Feiglin moving up the ranks. Interestingly enough... Likud Betainu (who are bleeding votes in the polls to Habayit Hayehudi) are now so pissed off that they are threateing the settlers that vote for Bennett's party instead of Likud.

Support for Naftali Bennett’s ascendant right-wing Jewish Home party comes largely at the expense of the Likud-Yisrael Beytenu list and its leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — and nowhere is this more pronounced than among the largely Orthodox settler population. Reportedly, the trend has prompted Likud to “play rough” and convey the message that if these Israelis fail to vote for Likud-Beytenu in January 22′s election, the consequences for the entire settler movement could be grave.... 

...But now, the sources said, “there’s pressure on the settlers. The message is that, this time round, you have to be with us. Otherwise, there will be repercussions for the future of the settlement movement.”

Along with this very direct threat:

Another Likud member was quoted as saying that, after the elections, the party would compare the number of votes it received in various settlements to the number of Likud members in the same locations.

NOW... how will Likud be able to make good on this threat with people like Danon and Feiglin in the mix, I don't know. It seems to me that no matter what, the settlers will have support from Likud-Beitainu. The real question is whether Lapid and Livni will "play ball" with Netanyahu and his plans. Both are relative moderates on foreign policy issues (which includes the Occupation). Neither one wants to Annex the West Bank into Israel and create a demographic nightmare that would effectively force Israel to become a minority run state. SO, I am not sure how I can see Livni in coalition with Danon, Feiglin or Lieberman (that already did not work out once).

Also, Given Netanyahu's record of absorbing more moderate groups in (Kadima and Labor), I am not sure how far either of them can trust the Prime Minister to work with their agenda's. I think that if either of the two "centrist" parties do go into a coalition government with Likud - Betainu they would try to exact some heavy promises from that group however, as Shaul Mofaz, and Ehud Barak found out... those promises from Likud don't really amount to much.

GRAPHIC THREE - The Left/Center Coalition

Personal Note: (this is the coalition I personally support).
This coalition has virtually no chance of happening however... it is nice to see. This coalition as shown would consist of Shelly Yachimovich (Labor) (18 Seats) heading up a government consisting of Livni, (11 seats), Lapid (11 Seats), Shas (10 Seats), UTJ (6 seats), and Zehava Gal On (Meretz) (5 seats) for a total of 61 seats. A bare majority that would strongly be beholden to the religious parties on those issues.

This has a low likely hood of happening for two reasons. The first is that Likud/Betainu would be able to put together that Rightist coalition without any of the Center - Center Left parties on his own and since it is pretty obvious from the polling Likud - Betainu will win a strong majority of seats they will have the "first crack" at building a government. ALSO.... as the chart indicates the religious parties seem to both prefer that Likud be given the first shot at the government and I don't think would hold out for Yachimovich's very secular and leftist economic platforms. Still it is a nice dream.

GRAPHIC FOUR - The UNITY GOVERNMENT
This is an interesting situation because I think this would probably not happen but... it would have Likud-Betainu (34 seats), Labor (18 Seats), Lapid (10 seats) and Livni (11 seats) plus the religious parties (16 seats). This would give 73 seats NOT counting the religious parties (89 seats with the Religious Parties). Why do I see this as not probably not happening?

Well first of all, I can't see Labor EVER going back into coalition with Likud given their previous experience. I don't see how Yachimovich and Co. could co-exist with Danon and Feiglin, it just doesn't make sense. Plus, Yachimovich has sworn not to enter into a coalition with PM Netanyahu (though we all know how much politicians promises are worth) and to lead a strong opposition. For a long time, Yachimovich and Labor were not outspoken on the Occupation and Settlements, preferring a more neutral path and in fact had not touched the settlement budget but, in response to ever growing criticism (as Assaf noted in a diary a few weeks ago I believe) she has now come out as opposing increased settlement activity and promises to take steps opposite that process.

One might also ask "Where are the Arab Parties and Hadash (a combination of Arabs and Jews with a Communist bent) in this discussion? They sit at 11 seats total. As any observer of this will tell you, all of these parties are non-Zionist in nature and do not accept the idea of Israel as the National State and Homeland of the Jewish people. Because of that, or until they change that, they will never, ever, ever, ever be asked into or be part of an Israeli Ruling Coalition. It just won't happen.

SO that is a very brief rundown of what is happening in the Israeli elections. Of course there is much more to this and I hope that our Israeli Kos folk will add to this and enlighten us with some more info.

Avodah Rising - Maybe.....

Yesterday was the first round of new elections for the leadership of Avodah (Israel's Labor Party), and while there are no results to publish Haaretz, ran a poll of Israeli voters and the results are surprising.

From Haaretz:

Less than a day after the first round of voting in the Labor Party’s election for a new leader, it seems that there is still life in the once-powerful party, which had been written off after years of in-fighting and an ever diminishing parliamentary presence.

Based on the results of a Haaretz poll conducted Tuesday night in conjunction with Dialog, if nationwide elections were held today, a Labor party led by journalist-turned-politician Shelly Yachimovich would win 22 out of the Knesset's 120 parliamentary seats. Were Labor headed by Yachimovich’s key rival Amir Peretz, the former party leader who resigned after the Second Lebanon War, it would win 18 seats in a general election held today.

This is a significant jump from the 13 seats Labor secured in the last elections, of which it only now has eight, after Ehud Barak jumped ship in January to form the Independence party, taking his cabal of four MKs with him. Apparently, this is the first instance of a leader rehabilitating a political party by leaving it.

Previous polls had suggested that Avodah would slightly gain strength in the coming elections but to suggest 22 Seats... that is quite the gain. Most of this gain as the article suggests would be at the expense of Kadima (a party created mainly to shore up Ariel Sharon and his bid to withdraw from Gaza) which had included Avodah in coalition had moved from being a Likud knockoff to something more Centrist.

Labors demise had been a long time in the making and seemed to culminate in the fourth place finish in the 2009 election where under the leadership of Ehud Barak they finished with 13 seats in the Knesset. Since that time they were reduced to 8 seats with the defection of Barak and four MK's when they left and formed Atz'maout. However, since then particularly with the Yachminovich's candidacy Avodah has been gaining strength.

One question I would have regarding the Haaretz poll is this:

With Yachimovich at the helm, Kadima would lose six of its 28 seats to Labor; with Peretz in charge, Labor would take four of Kadima’s seats.

So if (as the article states) Labor would have 22 seats where do the other eight seats come from? Right now the math works this way.. Labor has 8 seats. They pick up 6 seats from Kadima which would take them to 14 seats. So where are the other eight coming from. Meretz? Atz'maout? YB? Likud?

The next question I would ask is that if this is tied to the economic protests of the summer. I do know that Yachimovich was looking hawkish on security but reaching out to the protestors economic and social concerns. I am wondering if that blend of leftist economics and centerist/rightist security advocacy fits in with the way Israelis are thinking.

A favorite site of mine for Israeli Polling data is Jeremy's Daily Knesset Blog. Jeremy tracks polling from a number of different sources. I am looking forward to seeing the whole poll here but in his last two polls he shows the Right Gaining although he also show Labor picking up seats. One part of his poll shows the tent protestors or Yair Lapid getting up to 20 seats should they run... With Yachimovich at the helm of Labor I wonder if that would still be the case (I highly doubt it). But in any case read the site. It has all of the happenings in the Knesset and so forth.

With all the goings on in the area this is an "under the radar" story that could be important. I think it is well worth checking out.

Shalom!