Why Kicking Time Bombs Down the Road Never Really Works Out

Bad ideas for actions related to bombs.....

Generally when one sees a bomb just lying there merrily ticking away, it is never a good idea to run up to it and kick it and hope that by the time it goes off, you kicked it so far away that you are immune to the blast.

It is also never a good idea to yell at the Bomb and dare it to go off, you can sit there and taunt it, or curse at it, or scream "bloody murder" at it until you are blue in the face all you want. You can loudly proclaim that you are not afraid of the Bomb (and you might not be). But doing all of those things won't stop the Bomb from going off and when it does you probably get blown to smithereens.

Finally, one other piece of advice... It is never a good idea to stand next to the bomb and pretend that it doesn't exist. That helps no one. There it is, just sitting there ticking and you standing there just whistling away and minding your time is not going to do the trick. Pretending it doesn't exist, well that's never the best idea towards dealing with high level explosives particularly when they are active and sitting right next to you. In that vein, looking away from the bomb and focusing on everything BUT the bomb is going to do nothing relative to making that Bomb and it's impending explosion any less.

In Israel, what is the Bomb? The Bomb are the Palestinians and the rest of the world relative to the Occupation and the issue of settlements in the West Bank. 

This is how the top three major Israeli parties are looking at the next election. HaBayit HaYehudi (H.H.)(Jewish Home - Projected to be the Third Place finishers in the upcoming Israeli elections at least by today, , a party of Right Wing, Orthodox Religious Nationalists has decided that what they think is best is to run up and kick the Bomb. Their plan is best described as this... They want to take the part of the West Bank known as "Area C", where most of the Jewish population lives and completely annex it. The Palestinians who live there? They would become Full Israeli citizens with all rights and obligations of said citizenship.

THEN they want to take the remainder of the West Bank (Area's designated as "A" & "B" where most of the area's Palestinian population lives) and spend millions and millions of shekels building modern connecting roads to promote smooth passage of individuals and goods between Palestinian Parts of the West Bank. Not only that, but they say that also want to pour more money into building up the Palestinian economy and create prosperous economic zones for the Palestinians. Area's "A" & "B" would be considered an autonomous area for the Palestinians within Israel. The Palestinians living there would elect their own leaders, collect their own taxes and set up their own polity.

But you know what they wouldn't have? They wouldn't have an independent country. They would have an autonomous section of Israel and be subject in the end to the Israeli Government, but they would not have the right to vote in Israel. They wouldn't have the Rights enjoyed by many Israeli citizens and would certainly NOT have full civil rights. The flaws of this strategy are obvious.

There are many pitfalls of this from an Israeli perspective. Israel was born out of a need for the Jewish people after 2,000 + years of displacement to be a homeland and sanctuary for the Jewish people. FURTHER, it's founders envisioned a Democratic State based on Jewish principles of equality and fairness, principles enshrined in both the Torah and Talmud. This solution would just toss that completely out the window.

First of all, it would destroy Israel as a Democracy immediately and down the road as a Jewish State. Curiously for those that support Naftali Bennett and H.H. did they ever stop to consider what the destruction of Israel as a democracy would mean? Do they consider it worthwhile? Do they consider that in the best interests of the Jewish people. When the world through social media and increased technology is getting more and more democratic, do they understand that societies fail when they get less democratic. The founders of Israel saw this when they wrote this in the their Declaration of Establishment for the State of Israel:

THE STATE OF ISRAEL will be open for Jewish immigration and for the Ingathering of the Exiles; it will foster the development of the country for the benefit of all its inhabitants; it will be based on freedom, justice and peace as envisaged by the prophets of Israel; it will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants  irrespective of religion, race or sex; it will guarantee freedom of religion, conscience, language, education and culture; it will safeguard the Holy Places of all religions; and it will be faithful to the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.

But let's forget the high mindedness of actually having ideals and striving to work through them. Let's look at the practical side of this. The Demographics of it all. Right now the Jewish Population to Non-Jewish Population ratio in Israel is approx. 75.4% - 24.6%. A very healthy Jewish majority for a Jewish State.
With the Habayit Hayehudi plan, that demographic shifts radically by adding 2.57 million Palestinians into the state, (which would only grant "citizenship" to 100,000 of them). This would create a major demographic shift in the land between the Mediterranean and the Jordan (not counting Gaza) to a ratio of around 56%-44% AND of that 44% a good 55% plus would be disenfranchised. How long would the disenfranchisement of almost half of an ethnic groups population in one nation based solely on that ethnicity, last in today's world?

The practical outcome of this would be either civil strife or a mass exodus. Where could the population go in the surrounding area that would take them in and welcome them? Certainly the Israelis could make life so miserable for the Palestinians that they would want to leave, but, would that really be a long term solution? Continued oppression of people so that finally they want to just pick up and go? As Jews, we have been victimized in this manner throughout history. What would this to do to the original Zionist vision for Israel? I posit that this would eventually destroy Israel due to the fact that it would destroy one of the very foundations that the nation was built upon.

But there could also be civil strife. Generally, when you disenfranchise someone you create resentment that leads to both violent and non-violent resistance. Is this article justifying acts of terror against civilians? OF COURSE NOT! But, it does make it understandable that military targets and instruments of the maintenance of the Occupation would be targeted. Then what would happen? How could Israel allow it's soldiers and civil authorities to come under attack? This would most likely result in mass forced ethnic cleansing of the area, in other words forced evacuation. Is this something that the Israeli people would be ready to carry out. Forcing people from their homes in retaliation for them standing up for themselves. Would those who bravely carry on at their keyboards be the ones moving a family out of an area at gunpoint? 

But also, how would the rest of the world deal with this? Israel's back is already to a degree against a wall, however, support from the U.S. and E.U. (and by "support" I mean real support in terms of military and economic agreements) keeps Israel's economy moving and Israel at a qualitative military advantage over it's neighbors. What if Israel actually took the words of their hard Rightist supporters literally when they say things like this:

.... but in my opinion Israel should take the unilateral steps necessary to protect its security — and let the EU and Obama do their worst.

"Do their worst". Interesting. Well, how would Israel handle all trading agreements being cut off? How would their economy do with the E.U. closing markets in response to Israeli moves to annex 61% of the West Bank (land that is not considered theirs by the world community) and permanent disenfranchisement of almost 20% of all the people living in that area? Israel's economy would be shattered. How about if the U.S. also "did their worst"? Where would the Israelis get the money to build up Area's "A" & "B" and their H.H. road system to link the area? Can one imagine the security costs involved in a project like that? Of course, since the Jewish Home plan would run in direct conflict with American Foreign Policy and would force a severe strain on American diplomatic efforts to contain Iran in the area, I cannot imagine the American government kicking in any more of their $ 3 billion per year in loan guarantees.

Where then would Israel find it's military assistance, from Russia? They have no desire to do anything for Israel and never really have. From China? China is busy in the Gulf States and supporting Iran in the U.N., all while building up their guarantees for Oil. So where can Israel turn for it's own needs. It will have to fight Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt for control of the Natural Gas Fields in the Med. and it will have no large state sponsors to help. So sure - it's easy to sit in ones living room in the U.S. and challenge America to "do it's worst" (ask any nation that America does it's worst too how that worked out for them), but for the Israelis a loss of partnership with America and the E.U. would lead to one place. Masada. How did that work out for our people in the end?

As one can see kicking the bomb... is maybe not that great of an idea. At best one might only lose their foot, but in most cases one would lose their life.

Then there is the next option - The Likud Betainu option... This is both alternately ignoring the bomb and yelling at the Bomb, blaming the Bomb for being the bomb, talking about how it's the bomb's fault for being a bomb. All of that (of course) doesn't matter... the Bomb is still the bomb and it still will explode. What's even worse about the Likud-Betainu situation is that they simply have no solution. If the HaBayit HaYehudi plan has a flawed and fairly unrealistic solution, the Likud Betainu plan doesn't exist. Yelling at, cursing at, blaming the Bomb, doesn't make the bomb go away. At best it doesn't do anything but at its worst, it makes the bomb even bigger. It adds power to the resentment behind the bomb.

So in real terms what are we talking about? Israel faces a dilemma. What to do with the West Bank. In a debate for New Olim broadcast on YNET - the Likud Betainu Representative, in response to a question from Meretz about whether Likud was still committed to Prime Minister Netanyahu's Bar-Ilan Speech vision of Two States, simply blew the question off saying "Well, Abu Mazen doesn't want peace so really... what can we do"? (Paraphrased). Moreover, he went on dismiss his questioner as someone who is letting the Palestinians "determine the fate of Israel". Meanwhile, as everyone knows building in the territories continues apace and with the latest shift Right in the Likud primaries, the ascendency of the Feiglin, Danon wing of the party and the "purge" of the "moderates" (who really are not that moderate until they are looked at in comparison with Rightists in the Party) does nothing to produce a future solution that is really not that different from the Jewish Home vision. No one familiar with Israeli Politics could honestly see Moshe Feiglin, Danny Danon and their respective friends in Betainu and Likud agreeing to any sort of deal that cedes any parts of the West Bank (what they call Judea and Samaria) to the Palestinians to form a State.

Now, of course the Prime Minister has seemingly laid out a different program for a solution. He has floated a solution based purely on security needs where Israel annexes 50-60% of the West Bank, setting up a security zone in the Jordan Valley and around J'slem and Tel Aviv. This seems to be the path that the Prime Minister sees for the Occupation. Almost a de facto unilateral disengagement. Something that runs completely against the wishes of the U.S. and E.U. (who seek creative disengagement and an agreement between the Palestinians and Israelis).

But more than any of this, Likud Betainu lacks any vision of what it is doing. What are it's goals for the West Bank? Does it want a Two-State Solution, if so under what terms? Does it want a One State solution? If so,  what will it do with the Palestinians in the West Bank. Do they become full citizens of Israel? Do they get rights, will they be enfranchised? How does the economy continue to grow while facing pressures from an increasingly unhappy and frustrated United States and European Union whose Arab allies grow more and more restless for a solution to this issue? And what of the economy here? How does the Israeli economy continue to grow with the government throwing more and more resources into the West Bank, both in shekalim and military personnel? There are real issues of social justice inside the "Green Line". What happens to the population there who see continuing failings in Education, Social Welfare and the like, seeing new settlements and housing being built in the Occupied Territories?

And as was discussed in prior section on the Jewish Home plan, do they think that the U.S. and European Union are going to continue to turn a blind eye to this? Well, in this case they really just don't seem to care. The arrogance of suggesting that they won't deal with a situation like the Occupation because somehow that suggests that the Palestinians are dictating policy to Israel is laughable. One cannot portray themselves as a leader if they are willing to simply ignore major challenges to both the Jewish Identity of the State or to the philosophical foundations of the nation because they feel like someone else is telling them what to do. The problem still exists and still must be dealt with.

No, trying to place blame all the while "kicking the bomb down the road" is no solution. It can only end in violence or strife. Israel might be able to win this fight in a military sense but what would be the price of such a victory? Would the price of a victory like this be more than the country could bear?

However, one cannot leave out the main opposition Avodah. Their approach has been to totally focus on issues of social welfare (which in my opinion is fine) but they have been like the person who stands next to the bomb and whistles while looking the other way, trying to ignore it. It is only lately where Avodah has had some vague mutterings about dealing with the Occupation based around the 1967 lines with some land swaps. Nothing concrete mind you, simply thinking that this should solve that issue. Their leader Shelly Yachimovich has long been a crusader for Social Justice in Israel but never has been much on dealing with the issues of the Occupation.

This approach can't work either. There are real security concerns for Israel that need to be dealt with. The Palestinians are not simply going to go away, and right now they don't really have any inclination of accepting much when it comes to Israel. Those security concerns NEED to be addressed. Israel cannot afford to "navel gaze" and be completely unaware of those surrounding her. So what is Avodah proposing? What are specifics of what they would like to see with regards to Israelis in the West Bank? How are they going to support massive social welfare plans while also financing an Occupation? They haven't really addressed any of these issues.

Sitting there and whistling is nice but it does nothing to solve the ticking time bomb at ones feet. Generally what happens is that the bomb goes off and while one floats up to heaven to get their harp and sing hosannas at the feet of G-d (sarcastic cartoon imagery here), they wonder... "What the heck just happened???"

DISCLAIMER FOR THE NEXT SECTION: I am not an Israeli so really, it's not up to me to pick their future for them, but, I care deeply about the country and as a Jew with family and friends there I do have an opinion of this. Take that for what it's worth.

So now that I have whined, complained, and debunked the three major parties what is it that I suggest the Israelis do? A side note here is that I have little tolerance and even less respect for those simply whine about a problem but make no suggestions or make suggestions that are not well thought out and based on both stupidity and hatred. SO I give you my suggestions knowing full well that I might be wrong but, at least I feel they are well thought out.

What do I suggest about this "bomb". Well, I suggest that Israel ceases it's needless agitation of both the Palestinians as well as the U.S. and E.U. (not too mention Russia). I suggest that they immediately cease any and all building activity in the West Bank and Jerusalem. I suggest they stop tossing shekels into projects that they may have to at one point abandon. Instead, I suggest they turn their money to projects that support existing infrastructure in communities in Israel and in some of the settlements. I suggest they use that money to start the development of the Leviathan Natural Gas fields, AND most importantly that they use some of that money to make needed improvements to the IDF (like equipment upgrades, housing and so forth).

Then I suggest that the Israelis immediately propose immediate negotiations with the Palestinian Authority regarding a permanent solution with the assistance of both the U.S. and the European Union. At the same time, I think it important that parallel to these negotiations, the Israelis talk to the West in terms of Mutual Defense treaties as well as NATO membership. In return for the freeze and a return to serious negotiations, I would suggest asking for security and economic agreements that assure economic and military cooperation for the next fifty years.

Prior to these negotiations with the Palestinians, I suggest that the Israelis lay out a series of terms that MUST be agreed too by the Palestinians in order to solve this issue. Basic border issues (I personally favor the Olmert Plan map), Recognition of Israel as the National State and Homeland of the Jewish People (which would in effect wipe out any claims to Palestinian Right of Return), and issues surrounding water and resources. These are all things that both the U.S. and E.U. have already de facto recognized. They are all things supported by the U.S. and E.U.

It should be noted that no one is here is fooling themselves by thinking that these are things that fit the Palestinians "end game". If they had their way, they would use any withdrawal as a stepping stone to the eventual destruction of Israel. There is no one in the world that actually thinks that a peace agreement on paper (without support of the major state sponsors) that led to a complete withdrawal of the West Bank with no security provisions built in, would last any amount of time without Iran or radical groups using that land as staging grounds for terror and war.

Of course,whether the Palestinians accept this (and it would be the best deal they would ever get) or not is almost immaterial. Why? Because at that point Israel can show both the U.S. and the E.U. that the Palestinians walked away yet again for a third and final time. As they say: "The forms would have been obeyed" and would have been seen in a very final manner. Imagine the Palestinians telling the world in no uncertain terms.. "No, we will NOT accept Israel as the Jewish State and National Homeland of the Jewish People, No we will not accept their security concerns, and NO we will not accept a reasonable sharing of resources based on size of economy and projected use". Now, if they did accept those internationally recognized facts and understood that this was the end of their conflict with Israel, that would be great. Everyone goes home happy for a while and that is that.

If however, the Palestinians held out for their maximalist demands, well they would just be "shooting themselves in the foot". They would immediately lose all support from both Europe and the U.S. They would be turning down a permanent peace deal that was offered. There would be no more EVER offered. To fight Israel, the Palestinians would also then have to fight not only an Israel with the latest military technology but an Israel backed by the full might and economies (by treaty) of the U.S. and the E.U. It is simply a war, they cannot win, not for a very, very long time.

The most powerful economies would be there to make sure that there were not boycotts in heavy consumer markets, they would be there to support Israeli energy claims (particularly if Israel were to strike "sweetheart" deals with the Europeans). Plus, with withdrawal and building up of security they would of course need U.S. and European aid packages to build infrastructure to make accommodations to the new situation.

What else could happen if they walk away... well then Israel can then take on a defensive posture and act unilaterally with regards to security concerns, leaving Palestinian populated areas and allowing for the Palestinians to create a contiguous homeland throughout the West Bank. Of course, any acts of hostilities (terror strikes or rocket attacks) would be considered hostile military actions by one nation against another and again, the Israelis could invoke Mutual Defense Pacts.

BUT all this has to come with Israel getting to the table, making the first step and unilaterally deciding to play the international game by NOT continuing the settlement venture and going along with European and U.S. negotiators. It would be an announced final settlement for the Israeli - Palestinian issue and the whole world could watch as the Palestinians signed their own fate - either to continue along the trajectory of tragedy and war which has not worked out ever, or towards peace and co-existence. It would be done in the full on world spotlight. Because in the end, the Palestinians would have a hard time walking away from a viable State to hold out for some Maximalist demands. Abba Eban and all that... I think the time has come when they might realize what they are up against and take the chance on Peace.

THUS... Israel in this case would end up "disarming" the bomb. They wouldn't kick it. They wouldn't yell at it, they certainly would not ignore it, but they would do what they do best. Deal with the threat and eliminate it.

Israeli Elections are a-comin'

Well, if you thought the campaign season here (in the U.S.) was fraught with vitriol, charges against patriotism, all manner of crazed predictions... (as they say) "You ain't seen nothing yet". Welcome tot he run-up to the Israeli Elections to be held in one and a half weeks.

So here is a simple graphic I grabbed from Haaretz that should explain the likely / and unlikely coalitions that could come from the next Israeli Elections (Jan. 22nd):

 

GRAPHIC ONE - The Hard Right Coalition

So... what are you looking at here in these graphics. Well in the first graphic you have
P.M. Netanyahu (Likud Betainu), Naftali Bennet (Ha Bayit HaYehudi), Ariyeh Deri (Shas) and what looks to be MK Yaakov Litzman (United Torah Judaism). This is a Hard Rightist coalition that would command approximately 64 seats. Would be dedicated domestically to at least favoring a religious agenda (because both UTJ and Shas would hold the keys to keeping the coalition in tact) and on foreign policy and the Occupation would mark a veer away from PM Netanyahu's plan of an eventual Palestinian State on the West Bank (albeit with only 60% of the West Bank and no Jerusalem) and into a solution like that proposed by Habayit Hayehudi who would Annex Area C, Spend millions of Shekls to create connectors in Area's A & B and create autonomous homeland areas (but not allowing for an independent State) within the remaining parts of the West Bank. Economically, it would be very strongly "capitalist" in a country that is basically a Socialist or Social Democratic nation.

This is NOT the Prime Ministers preferred coalition, though it may indeed be the coalition that is most likely to happen. Why? Because, P.M. Netanyahu first of all DOES NOT really want to be dependent on the Religious elements of society to run the government. While he may be a Rightist he is not a theocrat. This coalition would place the stability of his coalition into the hands of the religious (and in the case of Habayit Hayehudi - religious nationialists). ALSO, Netanyahu does have a plan for at least some of the West Bank and Gaza to be a Palestinian State. While it may not be something that anyone will accept it is a plan. If he has to take on Habayit Hayehudi... that plan goes out the window.

GRAPHIC TWO - The Broad Based Coalition

This is the Prime Ministers favored government. It shows Likud Beitainu (34 seats projected), HaTanuah (Tzipi Livni's new party) (11 Seats), Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid's new party) (11 Seats), Shas (10 seats) and UTJ (6 seats) for a solid Knesset majority of 72 seats. While this coalition would still have to hold on to either of the religious parties to maintain the coalition, either party could leave and not crash the coalition. Given the more politically moderate nature of Ariyeh Deri (compared to Eli Yishai of Shas), this would allow for a foreign policy that is more flexible and more security minded than religious nationalist minded.

This would in appearances and policy represent a Center (Yesh Atid and HaTanuah) / Right (Likud - Betainu) coalition. It would be more more socially responsible than option # 1 in terms of national economics, and would have a religious presence but not necessarily a religious - nationalist presence. HOWEVER, when I say this that is not to say that there would be NO religious - nationalist presence there. Likud, in their primaries, purged a few prominent "moderates" and took on a much more rightist perspective with Danny Danon and Moshe Feiglin moving up the ranks. Interestingly enough... Likud Betainu (who are bleeding votes in the polls to Habayit Hayehudi) are now so pissed off that they are threateing the settlers that vote for Bennett's party instead of Likud.

Support for Naftali Bennett’s ascendant right-wing Jewish Home party comes largely at the expense of the Likud-Yisrael Beytenu list and its leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — and nowhere is this more pronounced than among the largely Orthodox settler population. Reportedly, the trend has prompted Likud to “play rough” and convey the message that if these Israelis fail to vote for Likud-Beytenu in January 22′s election, the consequences for the entire settler movement could be grave.... 

...But now, the sources said, “there’s pressure on the settlers. The message is that, this time round, you have to be with us. Otherwise, there will be repercussions for the future of the settlement movement.”

Along with this very direct threat:

Another Likud member was quoted as saying that, after the elections, the party would compare the number of votes it received in various settlements to the number of Likud members in the same locations.

NOW... how will Likud be able to make good on this threat with people like Danon and Feiglin in the mix, I don't know. It seems to me that no matter what, the settlers will have support from Likud-Beitainu. The real question is whether Lapid and Livni will "play ball" with Netanyahu and his plans. Both are relative moderates on foreign policy issues (which includes the Occupation). Neither one wants to Annex the West Bank into Israel and create a demographic nightmare that would effectively force Israel to become a minority run state. SO, I am not sure how I can see Livni in coalition with Danon, Feiglin or Lieberman (that already did not work out once).

Also, Given Netanyahu's record of absorbing more moderate groups in (Kadima and Labor), I am not sure how far either of them can trust the Prime Minister to work with their agenda's. I think that if either of the two "centrist" parties do go into a coalition government with Likud - Betainu they would try to exact some heavy promises from that group however, as Shaul Mofaz, and Ehud Barak found out... those promises from Likud don't really amount to much.

GRAPHIC THREE - The Left/Center Coalition

Personal Note: (this is the coalition I personally support).
This coalition has virtually no chance of happening however... it is nice to see. This coalition as shown would consist of Shelly Yachimovich (Labor) (18 Seats) heading up a government consisting of Livni, (11 seats), Lapid (11 Seats), Shas (10 Seats), UTJ (6 seats), and Zehava Gal On (Meretz) (5 seats) for a total of 61 seats. A bare majority that would strongly be beholden to the religious parties on those issues.

This has a low likely hood of happening for two reasons. The first is that Likud/Betainu would be able to put together that Rightist coalition without any of the Center - Center Left parties on his own and since it is pretty obvious from the polling Likud - Betainu will win a strong majority of seats they will have the "first crack" at building a government. ALSO.... as the chart indicates the religious parties seem to both prefer that Likud be given the first shot at the government and I don't think would hold out for Yachimovich's very secular and leftist economic platforms. Still it is a nice dream.

GRAPHIC FOUR - The UNITY GOVERNMENT
This is an interesting situation because I think this would probably not happen but... it would have Likud-Betainu (34 seats), Labor (18 Seats), Lapid (10 seats) and Livni (11 seats) plus the religious parties (16 seats). This would give 73 seats NOT counting the religious parties (89 seats with the Religious Parties). Why do I see this as not probably not happening?

Well first of all, I can't see Labor EVER going back into coalition with Likud given their previous experience. I don't see how Yachimovich and Co. could co-exist with Danon and Feiglin, it just doesn't make sense. Plus, Yachimovich has sworn not to enter into a coalition with PM Netanyahu (though we all know how much politicians promises are worth) and to lead a strong opposition. For a long time, Yachimovich and Labor were not outspoken on the Occupation and Settlements, preferring a more neutral path and in fact had not touched the settlement budget but, in response to ever growing criticism (as Assaf noted in a diary a few weeks ago I believe) she has now come out as opposing increased settlement activity and promises to take steps opposite that process.

One might also ask "Where are the Arab Parties and Hadash (a combination of Arabs and Jews with a Communist bent) in this discussion? They sit at 11 seats total. As any observer of this will tell you, all of these parties are non-Zionist in nature and do not accept the idea of Israel as the National State and Homeland of the Jewish people. Because of that, or until they change that, they will never, ever, ever, ever be asked into or be part of an Israeli Ruling Coalition. It just won't happen.

SO that is a very brief rundown of what is happening in the Israeli elections. Of course there is much more to this and I hope that our Israeli Kos folk will add to this and enlighten us with some more info.

Winners With a Hard Right... Israel, Egypt, and Hamas (PART 1)

I have wanted to write about this subject and have been gathering my thoughts so here is what I have in Four Parts. I did not want to make this too long for one sitting so... Here goes Part 1:

Now that the dust is settling on the lasted flair up in violence in Gaza the winners and losers are becoming a bit clearer. In all three cases; Israel, Egypt, and the Palestinian Territories (including Gaza) the so far winners are The Rightists in Israel, and Egypt as well as the conservative and proto-fascist Hamas movement. Of course there are other winners as well (the IDF, Israel's Missle Defense Systems, and President Obama, but those victories are much less far reaching for the time being), but the Right in each case came out of this one ahead.

First, let's start with the news of the day...The Winners in Israel.

In Israel, the Likud shed any of it's "moderate facade" and moved Hard Right.


PM Netanyahu votes with wife, Sara in Likud Primaries

From Haaretz: 

After two days of voting, marred by technical problems and various complaints, the Likud primaries ended on Monday night with a clear win for the right-wing branch of the party.

Ministers Benny Begin, Dan Meridor and Michael Eitan were dealt a heavy blow by Likud members in the primary, with all three failing to make the top 10, which probably suggests the end of their long political careers.

Education Minister Gideon Sa'ar was the evening's big winner, together with ministers Gilad Erdan, Silvan Shalom and Yisrael Katz, who were followed by hardliner MK Danny Danon, Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin and the party's probable candidate for defense minister, ex military chief of staff Moshe Ya'alon. MKs Zeev Elkin and Yariv Levin and Minister Yuli Edelstein close out the top 10 of the party's Knesset election list.

Begin was elected 20th on the slate, Meridor placed 28th and Eitan 30th, and were evidently punished by Likud members for their relatively "liberal" positions on issues such as the Supreme Court and freedom of dissent.

So what does this mean... Well, first of all, in the Likud-Betainu agreement it means that Begin, Meriador, and Eitan are O-U-T. One might ask why, since Likud is projected to win 32-38 seats (according to the polls - many found here at Jeremy's Knesset Insider Blog). The reason is due to the agreement Betainu candidates get to place one seat for every two Likud seats earned. For Meriador or Eitan to get in, that list would have to garner a boatload more votes than they are getting now.

To break down the meaning here: Well one thing it means is that there is an unlikely chance at a deal that would look anything what has been discussed in years past with the Palestinians (Olmert, Taba, Oslo, etc... ) With Moshe Ya'alon as DM, Lieberman as FM and the rise of Moshe Feiglin and Danny Danon, there is an even better liklihood of either total annexation of the West Bank OR The Netanyahu -Lieberman plan of Israel giving back 50% of the West Bank (which would not include J'slem or the Jordan River Valley). How Likud or Betainu will address the problems caused by this no one knows, but, it certainly would not be along the lines of past governments and would be harder right even then Arik Sharon's Kadima Party.
As one can see from the Poll results, the early lead goes to the Rightist parties 65-70 to 45-50 to the Center, Center-Left (not counting the Arab Parties and Hadash who would never be part of any coalition). While if one combines Avodah, Yesh Atid, Kadima (which right now is "dead in the water") and Tzipi Livni (wherever she may end up) the Center / Center Left can match Likud-Betainu BUT can not form a coalition that would get to the magic number of 61 Knesset seats.

NOW, even more disturbing than Feiglin and Danon occupying powerful positions (not too mention Sa'ar, and the Betainu crowd, is the total rise of a combined National Union, Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) party, coupled with N.U. breakaway and new home to Kahanists Michael Ben-Ari and Ariyeh Eldad in the "Strong Israel" party.

Of course, the Israeli election is still three months away and a lot can happen in those three months so no one can say that the future is written in stone A lot seems to depend on what Tzipi Livni does. But if she runs as an independent (caucusing with Labor and Y.A.) the government would be forced to ally itself the hardest of the hard right (assuming that Lapid remains true to his word and wouldn't join a Netanyahu - Lierberman government.

Now as many here know I am a supporter of the Israeli Center / Center-Left (particularly Avodah). So, let's hear what they had to say regarding this; (From Ynet)

Addressing the results, Labor Chairwoman Shelly Yachimovich said, "The list chosen, accompanied by (Avigdor) Lieberman's extremists who will be part of it, makes the Likud a radical right-wing party."

Meretz Chairwoman Zahava Gal-On commented on the results of the Likud primaries, saying: "I see the Likud list and it makes me feel bad. We see how settlers have turned the Likud into a nationalistic, extremist rightwing list; how the liberal Likud has passed away today."

"Centrist parties must make a commitment not to join Netanyahu, who will form a radical rightwing government," Gal-On told Ynet.

The Yesh Atid Party, chaired by Yair Lapid, stated that "The Likud has presented a worrying list that revolves around 'old politics' deals and ideological extremism."
 
"This is no longer the Likud of Menachem Begin and national politics; whoever votes for the Likud-Beiteinu list will get a branch of the National Union Party," the Yesh Atid statement read.

I think in this case Yair Lapid makes a good point in saying that if the Center parties remain strong... The hard Right will have a hard time governing, AND, if Yesh Atid is smart about it, they may go after folks like Begin, and Meriador and become a straight up Centrist party. Again that is not my particular cup of tea but I can see it's appeal and Israelis that I talk to I think would like that group.

There is a great deal at stake here and so we shall see as the campaigns get rolling. But as Likud moves hard Right this is going to present a very interesting challenge for the "soul" of Israel.

Israeli New Unity Gov't - The Reactions

The other night I was able to publish a quick article regarding the Breaking News that the Israeli Government decided rather than have early elections, they would form a national unity government between the two largest parties; Likud - The party of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu which has 27 seats and Kadima - Now the party of the now Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz which has 28 seats in the Israeli Knesset (Parliment).

In that diary, there is some great discussion from some very knowledgable Kossaks about the process which I recommend reading.

Today I wanted to follow up with more analysis and discussion. PLUS I wanted to show reactions from the Israeli Opposition (Labor, Meretz, and Yair Lapid).

First a quick re-cap. Up until last night the Israeli Government was planning on dissolving itself to hold early elections on Sept. 4th 2012 (ahead of October 2013 the original date). Here was a diary I wrote about those elections which showed some information, of course given the news of the day, that diary is irrelevant BUT, some of the info. contained in it will help with some background.

OK.. so on to events of the last day and reactions.

In late meetings yesterday, Kadima - which had been the main opposition party, not too mention the largest party in the Knesset (the Israeli parliment) joined into a National Unity Government with Likud and the Government with it's huge numbers of seats in the Knesset (up to 94 out of 120) cancelled the early elections.

So what is happening?

Well reactions range from surprised to somewhat hopeful to somewhat negative. First I would like to give the reaction now from Israel's Opposition party Avodah (Labor):

"Does the truth have no value?" asked Labor Party Chair Shelly Yachimovich at a press conference Tuesday on the decision to cancel early elections and establish a wide unity government.

Yachimovich took the podium after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima Party Chairman Shaul Mofaz announced that Kadima would be joining the coalition. "Do you believe a single word they say?" Yachimovich asked. ...

...Turning to Mofaz, Yachimovich said that, unlike him, she had never called Netanyahu a liar, and that when criticizing him she had always been respectful, despite the strong ideological polarization.

Nevertheless, she said, Netanyahu was a "right-wing extremist, a capitalist, an old-school Thatcherite."

"And that's what the debate is about – two ideologies: one social-democratic and one capitalistic and violent."

Now that Kadima joined the coalition, Yachimovich's Labor which was seeing a small rennissance under her leadership is now the head of the Opposition and as she later said, she feels that's a role that Avodah can play. With the summer protests coming (and with their focus on Social and Economic Justice), Labor indeed does have an opportunity here.

In a swipe at both the new government AND Labor and Meretz. New Party Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid had this to say:

"This is the chance of a lifetime. Without understanding what they were doing, Mofaz and (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu have made us the only alternative for the sane center," the journalist-turned-politician wrote in the letter, which was published following Netanyahu and Mofaz's joint press conference.

"I know you are disappointed with the past day's developments because as citizens it pains you to see how cynicism has taken over the entire political sphere and how no one is even pretending to care. You are also disappointed because we could already taste it. We already launched our (election) campaign," Lapid wrote.

"I felt the same way for about two hours, and then I realized this was the opportunity of a lifetime. Kadima has gone back to being what it has always been – a part of Likud. Labor and Meretz are on the Left. In one day we have become the only representatives of the sane middle class," the rookie politician told his supporters.

"Twenty-eight mandates are now up for grabs in the center of the political map. They could be ours. You can also add all those who are infuriated by the old and immoral politics we have witnessed (today)."

The Pundits in Israel and the U.S. are also out in full force. Here are a few:

Bradley Burston in Haaretz writes: Netanyahu's next Israel: Bad for the Right, good for the Jews

This is no longer the elected government of Israel. This is the hand-picked junta of the state of Bullpucky. There is the defense minister whom no one in Israel will vote for, the justice minister whom no one has ever voted for, the foreign minister for whom elections have been a keep-out-of-jail card, and now Mofaz.

It was just last week that Shaul Mofaz telling everyone who would listen, that Netanyahu and Barak were unfit to run this country, inappropriate to meet its social challenges, ill-equipped to deal rationally with the one issue that consumes them, Iran.

Apparently, in exchange for a cabinet post at a time when Kadima is plummeting in polls, Mofaz now concedes that Netanyahu and Barak are at least fit to run Shaul Mofaz....

.....Keep your eye, especially, on Labor and Meretz and Hadash. And keep your eye, as well, on Rabin Square. Summer is coming in early this year. So are social justice protests. The same protests that the election campaign was meant, in part, to undercut.

Already the rallies have begun.... Speaking at a rally of 1,000 also attended by Labor and Meretz MK's Tzipi Livni (former leader of Kadima) had this to say:

During the rally, which was organized by activists affiliated with last summer's social protest, former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni said she came "at the request of these young people, who care about Israel and are willing to fight for its future, and could not tolerate this morning's turn of events.

"They deserve politics that are based on principles rather than (Knesset) seats," she said.

Haaretz editor Aluf Benn had this in his column Formation of Israeli unity cabinet shows Netanyahu blinked first, again

In the dead-of-night deal he reached with Kadima chief Shaul Mofaz, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acted exactly according to a pattern of behavior established in his current term: avoiding risks at all costs. Netanyahu preferred the 18 months of certainty a unity government provides over going to an elections, despite polls that predicted an easy win.

Netanyahu hates taking chances. He'll always prefer playing it safe and avoiding uncertain situations. As far as he's concerned, the results speak to his favor. Fact is, he's still in power, and will stay there for a long time heading an unbreakable coalition, with Tzipi Livni who used to assault him in her Knesset speeches for his "survival policy," sitting at her Tel Aviv home.

Now, Netanyahu is at his most comfortable. Instead of been dependant on the mood swings of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and the Likud's right-wing representatives, he has a coalition with two wings, between which he can maneuver. At times he'll break right, at others left, all according to the needs of the moment. He can throw a bone to Lieberman and then to Mofaz; build a settlement and evacuate illegal structures. At times he’ll indicate that war with Iran is near and at others he'll give U.S. President Barack Obama's diplomatic overtures a chance. No politician can dream up of a more perfect situation.

So.... What do we think will happen? My facebook friends in Israel are mixed. Some are positive that this will be ok and will allow Netanyahu to tack to the Center and make deals with Palestinians as well as rein in the religious. Others feel it is destruction of the democratic process where leaders from parties have let down their constituencies.

No one knows what is in store and we won't have any idea for a few months what this really will mean but, it is very interesting news.

PARTY TIME IN ISRAEL

And the election season is not just for Americans anymore. The Israelis have decided to join in the fun (and... interestingly enough so did Hamas). SO, what's ahead????

That is the $ 1,000,000 question and the answer is that no one really knows, Predicting Israeli elections and political behavior is an imperfect science at best. That said,  let's start with what seems to happening, then go into some predictions. I am willing to make some from my place of ignorance here in the U.S. And I note, I may be completely and totally wrong (it would not be the first time), I am not Israeli and all I have to go on are a few media sources and a knesset inside blog that I read regularly. BUT predicting is fun SO... here is something to chew on.

Away we go:

Netanyahu's Likud moves to dissolve Knesset ahead of early Israel elections Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset on Wednesday, as Israel's political system readies for upcoming early general elections.....
....Israel's political arena has been abuzz with the likelihood of elections being moved up from their due 2013 date, with one possible cause for holding early elections is the controversial Tal Law, which exempts ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from mandatory military service.
The law, which the High Court of Justice declared unconstitutional in February, is to expire in August, compelling the government to deal with the explosive issue.

What you may ask is the Tal Law?

In short it is:

the Tal Law was passed on July 23, 2002 in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, as a temporary law which needs to be renewed every five years. The bill enables a continuation of the exempts to yeshiva students subject to the detailed conditions within the bill. According to the law, at the age of 22, yeshiva students are provided with a decision year and can choose between one-year civil service alongside a paying job or a shortened 16-month military service and future service in the reserves as an alternative to continuing to study. Five motions against the law were filed with the High Court of Justice claiming it violates the principle of equality. In 2005, the state admitted in a response to a Supreme Court petition, that the Tal Law had failed to change enlistment arrangements for ultra-Orthodox Jews, as only a few dozen had enlisted to the army as a result of it. The law was extended in 2007 by another five years. On February 21, 2012, the High Court of Justice ruled that the law is unconstitutional.

And what is the controversy? Well, many in Israel at this time feel that it is blatantly unfair that Yeshiva students can skip national service while all other Jewish citizens have to go into the Israeli Defense Forces.
This howeve, to me, is indicative of a larger problem that Israelis need and want to address, that is the issue of national character. As a young nation, Israel still seems to be finding and defining it's "being". There are many issues (the Occupation, Growing Economic inequality, poor civil defense readiness, Foreign Policy as related to the changing Middle East - particularly Egypt, natural gas and energy, water resources... to name just a few) but, one issue that is key to the very nature of the State is the division between religious and secular Israelis and the fight between the two to define the character of the State.

Currently, the coalition run by the Likud Party is beholden to hard Right nationalist and religious interests (due to the nature of Israeli coalition politics). Anything and everything that gets done has to run through this filter. Personally, I think the government wants to get away from this and rule from a more secular perspective (than currently exists) along with a more nationalist bent towards security.
The Prime Ministers party (Likud) currently enjoys wide public support (well as wide as is possible in Israel), and with the emergence of former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz to the leadership of Kadima, along with the resignation of Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni from the Knesset, I think the PM senses that NOW is a good time to change directions while he maintains the Prime Ministry.

Why do I say that... Well here are a few polls:

The Globes Poll

Current Knesset seats in [brackets] 31 [27] Likud
15 [08] Labor
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [28] Kadima
11 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home
03 [03] Meretz
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

The Dahaf Poll

31 [27] Likud
17 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [28] Kadima
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
04 [03] Meretz
02 [03] Jewish Home
02 [--] Deri
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

The Dahaf / Yediot Ahronot Poll with two extra scenarios

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [27] Likud
18 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [28] Kadima
11 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
03 [--] Deri
02 [04] National Union
02 [03] Jewish Home
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence Option #1 If Deri runs as leader of Shas: Likud 29, Labor 18, Y.B. 13, Yesh Atid 12, Shas 11, Kadima 10
Option #2 If Livni runs as Lapid’s #2: Likud 29, Yesh Atid 16, Labor 14, Y.B. 13 and Kadima 9

With these three polls one can see that Likud seems to have the upper hand in all outcomes, but what is interesting is the nature of the coalition it can build. So without further ado... Here is my thinking on the future coalition process... and one note - despite objections from Likud, I do think that Defense Minister Barak's party will fold into Likud:

1. Option One (what I believe is most likely to happen): Likud wins (30 seats), and forms a National Coalition with Shas (7 Seats), Kadima (11 seats), Yesh Atid (11 Seats), and possibly Yisrael Beitanu (13 Seats). Barak gets tossed, Mofaz (Kadima) gets back the Defense Portfolio, Lieberman maintains the Foreign Ministry, and Lapid gets some kind of Economic Ministry. This would give the Government 72 Seats (a strong majority) or thereabouts. As for the Occupation... they would probably enact Netanyahu's vision (which is similar to the Mofaz / Kadima plan but with less territorial "giveaways" AND with no division of Jerusalem.

2. Option Two (it could happen): Likud wins (30 Seats), forms a National Coalition with YB (13-15 Seats), Kadima (11 Seats), Shas under Yishai (7 Seats), and maybe UTJ (who seeing where the wind is blowing trades IDF service for some major religious concessions somewhere else). Barak gets the Boot from the DM (again given to Mofaz) and Lieberman remains as FM. This would pretty much keep things the same as they are now with Likud having between 63-69 seats. Not as comfortable a majority but enough of one to keep the Haredi in check. One way Netanyahu shores up his majority would also be to include the National Union (which would be a DISASTER! but would fulfill certain messianic members of his government with great joy.

3. Option Three (what I would like to happen and probably has as much chance of happening as Leprechauns and Unicorns leaping out of my rear end and handing me Gold and Wishes): Likud wins 30 seats and CANNOT form a government. Yachimovich and Labor get the call. Giving the Government the following: Labor (18 seats), A Deri run Shas joins in (11 Seats), Yesh Atid with Livni comes over (16 seats), Meretz joins (4 Seats), and Kadima (13 Seats) make up the coalition with a bare majority of 62 seats. Seeing the way the wind is blowing perhaps Hadash also votes with the "New Alignment" on major bills. Mofaz gets Defense, Livni gets the Foreign Ministry, Lapid gets an Economic Post (which would put him in direct conflict with Yachimovich who Lapid has said is too far Left, but for the purposes of this - I could care less).

4. Option Four (what I call the "sell-out" option). Likud wins (30 Seats), gets Labor into the government on a National Portfolio Ministry (18 Seats), Yesh Atid - for the Foreign Ministry (12 seats) and Kadima comes in in Defense (11 Seats) . This would give the Government 71 seats or thereabouts and has as much chance of happening me being elected President of the U.S. in early elections this year, but there is a certain amount of sense behind it. Of course then, it might mean that a good portion of Likud would bolt the party to work with a more Rightist party like YB (which would then collapse the government) in response to teaming up with Labor.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Probably nothing like what I am predicting will happen but hey at least I am putting it out there.

As for the Occupation, and it's end... I think the "best case" scenario would be if Option # 3 gets to happen and that they would revive the Olmert Plan from 2008 (the plan that was in the Palestine Papers).
Anyway, given the news and the polls - what are your thoughts?