Palestinians Upgrade Status at the U.N.

It was a historic day in the Middle East. On the 65th anniversary of the founding of Israel and the historic vote that created Two States in part of the former British Mandate in Palestine (one which the Palestinians rejected, leading to many years of bloodshed and violence that continues to this day), The Palestinians are at the U.N.General Assembly just got a vote that extends non-state observer status to the nation of Palestine.

SO.. now what? What does this mean?

Barak Ravid over at Haaretz has a comprehensive and quick explanation for all of this. I recommend reading it

What decision also means is now that the Palestinians can be internationally considered at the State level, they will also have responsibilities towards not only their neighbors towards their own populace. For them, this is a double edged sword. One reason is due to the fact that as of late the Green Flag of Hamas has been seen flying more often in the West Bank, and a Hamas run Palestinian State will not generate nearly the support that a Palestinian Authority / PLO state will.

Another important aspect of this is that now as a State actor they will have responsibility for the Palestinian "Refugees" of the 1948 war. Will they turn their back on the people that the U.N. considers refugees? Will they now offer a home to the Palestinians in Jordan, The Gulf, or Lebanon who want to live in the State of Palestine? No one really knows. But again that presents a thorny issue. The PLO has long claimed to speak for the "refugees" will they continue that or will it be the Government of Palestine. This gets even more complicated if Hamas happens to win the next Palestinian elections (whenever they may be). The Palestinians will have to further establish this important piece of the puzzle.

But for the situation "on the ground" to change there have to be direct negotiations around the borders. As it stands now, nothing of the borders has been decided. To ask the Israelis to give up the Kotel and the Jewish Quarter of Jerusalem simply isn't plausible. At the very minimum for there ever to peace this must be respected. In all reality the Israelis probably would not give up any part of Jerusalem, however, this has not been fully or seriously tested. One also would be talking about giving up the neighborhoods around East Jerusalem and the corridor up to Mt. Scopus. Again, that is pretty much something I can't see the Israelis ever budging on and in fact, from news of today: 3,000 new homes have approved beyond the Green Line which would seem to indicate that this version of the Israeli Government is not only going to not honor the Palestinian claims but will continue to build across the Green Line.


On the other side of the "ball" (so to speak) - there are some positives. The first and foremost is that this puts the Two State Solution back on the table Front AND Center. While Israel can ignore this for a while longer they cannot and should not ignore for any long period of time. I can understand with the chaos in the Palestinian polity why the Israelis would not address this, but, at some point in the very near future they will have to address it. There simply is too much at stake to, (as Mitt Romney suggested they do) "kick the can down the road".

This decision will also put pressure on the upcoming Israeli elections. As we all know, Israel's leading party, (and likely future head of the government) Likud took a hard right turn in the recent Likud primary. By moving people like Moshe Feiglin, and Danny Danon up, the Likud is seemingly committing itself to further occupation and eventual declaration of something approaching annexation of the West Bank (advocated by Danon and the YESHA). These maximalist efforts will most likely run into opposition from the Quartet and eventually the U.S. government particularly as it tries to build an alliance with Arab States against Iranian hegemonistic interests.

In the effort against spreading Iranian influence (including their arming of Hamas), the U.S. will most likely find it more difficult gaining influence in the Arab nations if the Israelis are actively settling the beyond the Green Line and not declaring any final borders. Israel simply needs to figure out the borders that they are willing to negotiate around. If it is the entire West Bank, then they are going to face serious problems from their neighboring states (who already don't like them), and the Western Nations (including the U.S). that are committed to the Two State Solution. Of course, this is to say nothing of the problems that they will face with demographic issues and challenges to their democracy.

So Israel has to ask itself... can it really afford to piss off the United States and Western Europe particularly as those nations gear up to dealing with Iran and the real challenges that Iran is going to present to the region and to U.S. interests. Now, while this may not be a problem going forward with the U.S. (though I think it will and I understand completely why) it will be one with the European Nations.

I believe that this event will mark the beginning of a process (that may take years to complete) that will eventually lead to a resolution of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict (note that I do not say the Arab-Israeli conflict). I have no idea what this resolution will be and whether it will lead to Peace of not. There are too many "moving pieces" and both the international economic or environmental climate will have effects. But... all in all I believe it is the beginning of the "endgame" for both sides. Unfortunately, like the participants in this, I have no idea where it will end up.

Winners With a Hard Right... Israel, Egypt, and Hamas (PART 1)

I have wanted to write about this subject and have been gathering my thoughts so here is what I have in Four Parts. I did not want to make this too long for one sitting so... Here goes Part 1:

Now that the dust is settling on the lasted flair up in violence in Gaza the winners and losers are becoming a bit clearer. In all three cases; Israel, Egypt, and the Palestinian Territories (including Gaza) the so far winners are The Rightists in Israel, and Egypt as well as the conservative and proto-fascist Hamas movement. Of course there are other winners as well (the IDF, Israel's Missle Defense Systems, and President Obama, but those victories are much less far reaching for the time being), but the Right in each case came out of this one ahead.

First, let's start with the news of the day...The Winners in Israel.

In Israel, the Likud shed any of it's "moderate facade" and moved Hard Right.


PM Netanyahu votes with wife, Sara in Likud Primaries

From Haaretz: 

After two days of voting, marred by technical problems and various complaints, the Likud primaries ended on Monday night with a clear win for the right-wing branch of the party.

Ministers Benny Begin, Dan Meridor and Michael Eitan were dealt a heavy blow by Likud members in the primary, with all three failing to make the top 10, which probably suggests the end of their long political careers.

Education Minister Gideon Sa'ar was the evening's big winner, together with ministers Gilad Erdan, Silvan Shalom and Yisrael Katz, who were followed by hardliner MK Danny Danon, Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin and the party's probable candidate for defense minister, ex military chief of staff Moshe Ya'alon. MKs Zeev Elkin and Yariv Levin and Minister Yuli Edelstein close out the top 10 of the party's Knesset election list.

Begin was elected 20th on the slate, Meridor placed 28th and Eitan 30th, and were evidently punished by Likud members for their relatively "liberal" positions on issues such as the Supreme Court and freedom of dissent.

So what does this mean... Well, first of all, in the Likud-Betainu agreement it means that Begin, Meriador, and Eitan are O-U-T. One might ask why, since Likud is projected to win 32-38 seats (according to the polls - many found here at Jeremy's Knesset Insider Blog). The reason is due to the agreement Betainu candidates get to place one seat for every two Likud seats earned. For Meriador or Eitan to get in, that list would have to garner a boatload more votes than they are getting now.

To break down the meaning here: Well one thing it means is that there is an unlikely chance at a deal that would look anything what has been discussed in years past with the Palestinians (Olmert, Taba, Oslo, etc... ) With Moshe Ya'alon as DM, Lieberman as FM and the rise of Moshe Feiglin and Danny Danon, there is an even better liklihood of either total annexation of the West Bank OR The Netanyahu -Lieberman plan of Israel giving back 50% of the West Bank (which would not include J'slem or the Jordan River Valley). How Likud or Betainu will address the problems caused by this no one knows, but, it certainly would not be along the lines of past governments and would be harder right even then Arik Sharon's Kadima Party.
As one can see from the Poll results, the early lead goes to the Rightist parties 65-70 to 45-50 to the Center, Center-Left (not counting the Arab Parties and Hadash who would never be part of any coalition). While if one combines Avodah, Yesh Atid, Kadima (which right now is "dead in the water") and Tzipi Livni (wherever she may end up) the Center / Center Left can match Likud-Betainu BUT can not form a coalition that would get to the magic number of 61 Knesset seats.

NOW, even more disturbing than Feiglin and Danon occupying powerful positions (not too mention Sa'ar, and the Betainu crowd, is the total rise of a combined National Union, Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) party, coupled with N.U. breakaway and new home to Kahanists Michael Ben-Ari and Ariyeh Eldad in the "Strong Israel" party.

Of course, the Israeli election is still three months away and a lot can happen in those three months so no one can say that the future is written in stone A lot seems to depend on what Tzipi Livni does. But if she runs as an independent (caucusing with Labor and Y.A.) the government would be forced to ally itself the hardest of the hard right (assuming that Lapid remains true to his word and wouldn't join a Netanyahu - Lierberman government.

Now as many here know I am a supporter of the Israeli Center / Center-Left (particularly Avodah). So, let's hear what they had to say regarding this; (From Ynet)

Addressing the results, Labor Chairwoman Shelly Yachimovich said, "The list chosen, accompanied by (Avigdor) Lieberman's extremists who will be part of it, makes the Likud a radical right-wing party."

Meretz Chairwoman Zahava Gal-On commented on the results of the Likud primaries, saying: "I see the Likud list and it makes me feel bad. We see how settlers have turned the Likud into a nationalistic, extremist rightwing list; how the liberal Likud has passed away today."

"Centrist parties must make a commitment not to join Netanyahu, who will form a radical rightwing government," Gal-On told Ynet.

The Yesh Atid Party, chaired by Yair Lapid, stated that "The Likud has presented a worrying list that revolves around 'old politics' deals and ideological extremism."
 
"This is no longer the Likud of Menachem Begin and national politics; whoever votes for the Likud-Beiteinu list will get a branch of the National Union Party," the Yesh Atid statement read.

I think in this case Yair Lapid makes a good point in saying that if the Center parties remain strong... The hard Right will have a hard time governing, AND, if Yesh Atid is smart about it, they may go after folks like Begin, and Meriador and become a straight up Centrist party. Again that is not my particular cup of tea but I can see it's appeal and Israelis that I talk to I think would like that group.

There is a great deal at stake here and so we shall see as the campaigns get rolling. But as Likud moves hard Right this is going to present a very interesting challenge for the "soul" of Israel.

How I Went From Mostly Disengaged To Ardent Zionist

One thing about me is that I constantly seek out opposing viewpoints and new sources of information, and reevaluate my opinions if warranted.

Profound issues that I have changed my mind on over the course of my life include gun control, affirmative action, the death penalty, and vegetarianism.  Of those, I have moved in what would be considered the more stereotypically "conservative" direction on three, and the more stereotypically "liberal" direction on one of them.  My point here is that I am very open minded about issues.

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Before around 2005 Israel did not occupy a large part of my thought space.  When it did, I was a firm believer in a two state solution based on the 1967 borders, and would have probably, if asked, said that I thought there was plenty of blame to go around on both sides.

Around that time, Israel began to loom much larger in my life because I began to be exposed to virulently anti-Israel rhetoric at the blog Daily Kos.  As I've discussed here many times, this rhetoric was often explicitly antisemitic.

As the Israeli-Arab conflict started to loom larger, I started exploring many of the common anti-Israel resources.  This included popular websites, lectures, and videos.

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What I found back then, and what I have continued to find since then, has been profoundly disappointing.  The anti-Israel side just simply doesn't have much of a worthy case, or if they do, they are certainly not making it.

The main problem is that a huge portion of anti-Israel rhetoric is based on pseudo anthropological nonsense.  Rather than new and interesting perspectives on, say, the Six Day War or the Oslo Accords or somesuch, what I have encountered is mostly ill-informed babble and transparently ridiculous analogies.  If this is what the anti-Israel side has to make their case, then their case is simply not worth making.

The most common of these are appeals to Arabs being "indigenous" and Jews being otherwise, like they are Amish in Bolivia, which completely misunderstands the millennia of Jewish connection and presence in The Land, not to mention the complex patterns of migrations in the Levant with the ebb and flow of empires over the past 200 years.  There is also incessant simplistic and incorrect application of very particular mid 20th century American racial paradigms to places where it doesn't belong.  There are constant - apparently straight faced, self confident, and seriously intended - references to "brown" and "white" people, revealing that those who peddle these notions have never been to Israel or the territories and have no idea who lives there.

I have been shocked at how many times I have seen anti-Israel discussions refer to Arabs as being "the real Semites" or somesuch.  This is conjuring a ridiculous and self-parodying pseudo-anthropological notion out of thin air.  There is no such thing as a "Semite" - Semitic is simply a language family that includes the highland Ethiopian languages, Hebrew, Arabic, and Maltese.  Nobody creates such false categories out of other language families, such as claiming that Hungarians are the "most Ural-Altaic" people, since such things are transparently absurd.  Languages are simply languages, and mean nothing more.

Then there is the constant embrace of anti-scientific garbage such as the Khazar hoax, which continues to stump me.  It is like debating with creationists or climate deniers, no amount of evidence will sway people from their factually indefensible position.  It is a profound truism that if your position depends on disproven nonsense, or even if you perceive that your position is dependent on disproven nonsense, then your position is not valid.

When actual historical events are discussed, they are almost always done so with apparently no understanding of important context.   What I have seen makes me doubt that most anti-Israel people are aware of very important and basic facts such as the UN Partition plan and the Jewish acceptance thereof, or the Peel Commission report, or other important events in the history of the region.

This is all not even mentioning the explicitly and unambiguously antisemitic content, such as the USS Liberty Hoax that is an unavoidable staple of anti-Israel advocacy, and the constant Holocaust revisionism, recently laid bare by the Greta Berlin episode.   

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The bottom line is that while I began my search for opposing viewpoints several years ago with a largely open mind, what I found has shown to me that apparently the anti-Israel position has little of serious value to offer.  If there is a valid case to be made there, they are not making it. 

What began as an exploration of an issue that previously had little sway for me has moved me toward being a very committed pro-Israel partisan.  The case for Israel that I have seen is based on the decades-long quest on the part of the Jewish side to reach a mutually acceptable solution, going back to the Peel Commission report, and the constant moves by the Arab side not to accept anything but complete victory and even genocide.  Nothing I have encountered among anti-Israel viewpoints, in now several years of searching, has made a worthwhile case.  Instead, I have mostly seen transparently silly pseudo-anthropological nonsense and Farrakhan-esque ranting devoid of any relevancy to the actual situation.

In spite of my considerable efforts to find it, there really seems to be no serious there there on the anti-Israel side.  Therefore, I have become a committed pro-Israel partisan.  So much so that I now seek out wine from the Golan Heights, and buy my chick peas from halfway around the world.  And of course I had to finally go there.  It is an irony that this whole path began with my initial online encounters with the anti-Israel side, half a decade ago.

Oh, Whatever Should We Do About Conservatives Feeling "Left Behind" By Obama's Reelection?

From Ian Reifowitz over at Daily Kos

Note: Here is an article that speaks to something that I feel deeply about (the division in our country).

I submitted a letter to the editor, which I'd like to share here, in response to a recently published New York Times article titled "In Wyoming, Conservatives Feeling Left Behind."

Laura Clawson summarized the article nicely here, along with the key quotes:

In Wyoming—which is 86 percent white, gets the most federal dollars per capita, and gave Mitt Romney his second-biggest winning margin—Republicans are concerned that the country is being overrun by parasites. No, really, according to one conservative publisher and radio talk show host, "The parasites now outnumber the producers." He's not alone: 

"It's a fundamental shift," said Khale Lenhart, 27, a lawyer here. "It's a mind-set change—that government is here to take care of me." [...]

"It spooks me," said James Yates, 46, a self-made businessman who owns 15 restaurants and employs about 1,000 people. "The young vote and certainly the minority vote went toward the perspective of 'What can I get?' Where the government runs everything, it's completely not sustainable. They don't see that."

In my letter, I call out the extremeness of the people who express this attitude. I realize I'm also a bit snarky toward them in the title of this post. Nevertheless, it is not a good thing for our country if a significant chunk of the population feels alienated, in particular if that alienation is tinged with racial identity and racial animus. It's easy and satisfying to just condemn them and be done with it. 

Now, they do have to change their beliefs.  The question is what can all of us -- not just progressives of course, but our society as a whole -- do to help encourage this change. It's a short letter, but I try to offer a path forward. I hope you find it worthwhile:

The Apocalypse is nigh! America is lost! One Republican county commissioner called for “revolution.” Countless others have signed “secession” petitions. This wildly disproportionate reaction to the reelection of a moderately liberal President suggests that these conservatives aren’t just upset about the role of government. Too many on the right are afraid that the new, more diverse America won’t be like the America they remember (or imagine) from their youth. 

Our challenge as a country is to help these alienated, anxious whites realize that the new, inclusive America also includes them. Republican leaders and, yes, media figures have to tone down their rhetoric, focusing on policy disagreements rather than ginning up anxiety about diversity. Democrats have to continue what they’ve been doing, talking about unity and inclusion, just as President Obama did in his Election Night speech. Whatever our differences, we must remain one people.

PS-Please check out my new book Obama's America: A Transformative Vision of Our National Identity, published last month by Potomac Books, where I discuss Barack Obama's ideas on racial, ethnic, and national identity in detail, and contrast his inclusive vision to language coming from Mitt Romney, Rush Limbaugh and (some) others on the right. You can read a review by DailyKos's own Greg Dworkin here.

BREAKING: CEASEFIRE!?? (MAYBE)

I just saw this on FaceBook from a friend in Modi'in (in Israel) and then got this Headline in Haaretz: Ceasefire to go into effect at Midnight

HOWEVER... I am not seeing detailed info. on it. There was this:

The head of Hamas' political bureau and Islamic Jihad secretary-general plan to meet with Egyptian intelligence chief Gen. Raafat Shehata again on Tuesday, in an attempt to finalize details of a cease-fire agreement. The talks in Cairo, which are being led by Shehata, are expected to be decisive. The Israeli delegates to the talks plan to return to Cairo today to present Israel's response to demands being made by Hamas. Senior Egyptian officials told Haaretz that the sides are very close, but that some more flexibility is needed from the Israeli side.

YNET is reporting it on their news feed but there as well... there are no details. At the same there seems to be an active trade of fire into the evening as both sides are "Getting their shots" in, while they can.

The German FM met with officials in Egypt after meeting with government officials in Israel and it is thought that the Germans are able to present Israeli amendments and concerns for the cease-fire.

YNET is also reporting that in a MENA story the Egyptian President Morsi was saying:

"President Mohamed Morsi announced that the farce of Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip will end on Tuesday," MENA said, quoting public remarks made by the country's head of state after the funeral of his sister. 

"The efforts to conclude a truce between the Palestinian and Israeli sides will produce positive results in the next few hours," he was quoted as saying.Egypt has been trying to mediate a truce to end the conflict.

There was this:

6:14 P.M. Hamas official: Gaza truce to be declared at 9 P.M., go into effect midnight, Israel time (Avi Issacharoff)

As of Right now:

7:01 P.M. Israeli official says truce deal with Gaza militants not yet finalized, 'ball still in play' (Barak Ravid)

On a personal note... I do very much hope for a cease fire, but, I more hope that the ceasefire will lead to some kind of permanent solution. Simply put, "kicking the can down the road" just doesn't and will not work. BOTH sides need to understand this. How many more people need to die, or how many more people need to have their lives wrecked by PTSD caused by this fighting?

In any case - please stay tuned and I will try to keep this updated as I see more info.

UPDATE 7:35 PM: 7:35 P.M. Palestinian and Egyptian officials are now saying that there is still no agreement on a cease-fire. (Haaretz)

10:58 AM PT: Hamas is claiming it will "Continue FIring until the Last Moment". I would expect the Israelis have the same philosophy

12:02 PM PT: CEASE FIRE IS OFF! ACCORDING TO YNET: Hamas official Izzat al-Rishq twitted that Egypt is the only one that can announce a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the factions in Gaza. Any statements made about such a deal prior to an official announcement is irresponsible, he said. (Elior Levy)

12:13 PM PT: From: http://www.ynetnews.com/...
Hamas official Izzat al-Rishq twitted that an agreement over a ceasefire between Israel and the factions in Gaza has yet to be reached, adding that such a deal won't be struck on Tuesday night. (Roi Kais)

12:23 PM PT: Haaretz Reporting: 10:09 P.M. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives in Israel, to hold joint press conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at 11 P.M. (Haaretz) http://www.haaretz.com/...

12:46 PM PT: From Haaretz: 10:25 P.M. Hamas postpones planned Cairo press conference on cease-fire with Israel (Avi issacharoff)

A Huge Thank You to President Obama

As many readers of PZ know.. We are huge supporters of President Obama. Prior to the election we took on those on lunatic fringe who told us that the President was a secret Muslim, radical Jihadist, who just loved Political Islam (all while smacking them with increased drone strikes in Afghanistan and Pakistan), was the Muslim Brotherhoods biggest fan and simply kept on insisting that the President hated Israel and the Jewish People. It was amazing. They then told us that the 70% of American Jews who voted for the President were deluded and supported the victimization of women, and the LGBT community throughout the Middle East (all while supporting a Party that wanted to do just that to American Women, I guess those American Women are simply not as important as women in Egypt or Tunisia).

On the Hard Left, (where it loops around to match the Hard Right) they are equally disappointed in President Obama. Over at the Hate Site known as Mondoweiss, we call it MondoFront (due to the fact that it mixes anti-Israel/Jewish rhetoric and could be easily confused with the Neo-Nazi website StormFront), the inmates are flipping out over how President Obama "betrayed" them (though he has never been anything but Pro-Israel) and how he and congress are owned by powerful Jews and Zionists.

Even after the President was instrumental in funding Iron Dome - which has saved many Israeli lives. And even though he has supported the Israelis in full in the U.N. and with increased security coordination and given the Israelis a Patriot Battery and taken the lead in helping the Israelis develop David's Sling, Magic Wand, and Arrow... Still the lunatic fringe on the Right didn't look at any of that AND the nutjob fringe on the Left obviously simply forgot to pay attention to reality.

SO.. that brings us to the President's re-election. A happy day for those of us who supported him AND it turns out a happy day for Israelis as well. As Israel was getting shelled by the Fascist Hamas Party in Gaza, the President stood up for Israel. In the faces of all of those who would not stand up, President Obama stood up tall for the Jewish People and for Israel.

From White House Spokesperson Jay Carney:

We strongly condemn the barrage of rocket fire from Gaza into Israel, and we regret the death and injury of innocent Israeli and Palestinian civilians caused by the ensuing violence. There is no justification for the violence that Hamas and other terrorist organizations are employing against the people of Israel. We call on those responsible to stop these cowardly acts immediately in order to allow the situation to de-escalate.

In…conversations [with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi], the president reiterated the United States’ support for Israel’s right to self-defense. President Obama also urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to make every effort to avoid civilian casualties.

Hamas claims to have the best interests of the Palestinian people at heart, yet it continues to engage in violence that is counterproductive to the Palestinian cause. Attacking Israel on a near-daily basis does nothing to help the Palestinians in Gaza or to move the Palestinian people any closer to achieving self-determination.

From Ynet:

"The President urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to make every effort to avoid civilian casualties. The two agreed that Hamas needs to stop its attacks on Israel to allow the situation to de-escalate," the statement said.

"The two leaders agreed to stay in close touch in the coming days. Earlier today, Vice President Biden received a briefing from Prime Minister Netanyahu on the events in Gaza," the statement noted.

"The President also spoke with President Morsi given Egypt's central role in preserving regional security. In their conversation, President Obama condemned the rocket fire from Gaza into Israel and reiterated Israel's right to self-defense," it said.

The US on its part backed Israel's decision to launch Operation Cloud Pillar. "We support Israel’s right to defend itself, and we encourage Israel to continue to take every effort to avoid civilian casualties," Deputy State Department spokesman Mark Toner said in a statement.

Toner added that Washington "strongly condemns the barrage of rocket fire from Gaza into southern Israel, and regrets the death and injury of innocent Israeli and Palestinian civilians caused by the ensuing violence.
"There is no justification for the violence that Hamas and other terrorist organizations are employing against the people of Israel. We call on those responsible to stop these cowardly acts immediately."

It is pretty clear to see that the President and his administration are very supportive of Israel and the Jewish People. They understand that it was Hamas that started this mess and that the only way to finish it is that Hamas MUST understand that it's violence will beget nothing but violence in return.

Over at Daily Kos Diarist Assaf included links to the White House and to Israeli Consulates so that people could contact the administration to protest the Israeli action. I and others here immediately used those links to contact the administration and Thank them for the Presidents steadfast support. I hope you will do that as well.

Here is the info. Be sure also to contact the Israeli Consulates near where you live to give them a message of support to send back to Israel. I think we should take Assaf's advice when he says: "So please let President Obama know how you feel, both online and by phone, (202)456-1111."

Why is it so Difficult?

Here is what I don't get... What is difficult about ending the Gaza altercation? In Israel and in America the Hard Left keeps talking in terms of a cease fire or a truce. The Lunatic Right, both here and there, keep talking about blowing Gaza into little bits and "levelling" the place. Neither one of course, (and as usual) is right. They simply aren't. It's not hard to see an answer yet despite the ease of that answer no one wants to address it. Why? Because it takes away an easy crisis that both sides need to feed their power base.

Hamas NEEDS to see their children and civilians die. It's in their interest. They can't maintain any sort of power if they are not seen as the "Heroes of Resistance". They will fight to the very last civilian (as long as their money and influence are not harmed), just to prove that they and no one else is who should rule in the land that is now Israel and Palestine. They certainly don't care who they have to kill to get there and the more their own people suffer, the more they can take those people's minds off of their own failures and corruption.

The Israeli and American Right, need to have an enemy to fight in order to continue to scare people into supporting their nihilistic Randian vision of the world coupled with building towards some fictional Spartan state that they can all feel very tough about while sending other peoples kids to do their fighting for them.

ANYWAY... In all of the analysis and hand wringing about what Israel is doing everyone keeps talking about cease fires and Ten Year Truces and how if Israel just ended it's embargo on the Gaza Strip everything would be peace and light. The Useful Idiots and their supporters all talk about the culpability of Israel without addressing the prime issue, that of the responsibility of Hamas and the Palestinians to simply accept that Israel exists as the National Homeland and State of the Jewish people. IF they did this simple thing... this conflict would be over within ten seconds.

Imagine if a Palestinian leader would go to the Israelis and say "Listen, we are sick of war and sick of what is happening so here's the deal. Give us the land in the Olmert deal for a nation, including at least half of the Old City of East Jerusalem. We will de-militarize for ten years however, YOU are responsible for our protection as well as training of our military so that when we get through our growing pains we can have a professional and responsible military. ALSO, we will need aid. You and the U.S. need to build up our infra-structure and provide a market for our goods until we can develop our markets. That means access to roads, water, and the like. In return... We will give you a complete and total peace. We recognize that Israel is and will be the National Homeland and State of the Jewish people . We will open cultural and trading exchanges and allow for our children to learn with yours in mixed education programs."

That's it. That would end it right then and there. The War, this exchange, the conflict. Done. It would be completely over. No one, but no one asks this of the Palestinians. To be fair, no one on the Israeli Right would lay this out as an opportunity either.  But you have to give something to get something. The Palestinians have to retain some pride to make this a lasting deal. So... This is a fair deal. The Palestinians get control of Islam's third holiest site (the Haram al-Sharif), Christianity's holiest site (Bethlehem) and they get a secure and viable state. They can even negotiate for recompense for those driven from their homes in past wars. Israel would be foolish not to accept these terms.

Until then though, why should Israel cede one inch of anything to people that talk in terms of destroying them? They shouldn't. They need to keep the pressure on Hamas' leadership until they are either dead, removed, or at some point they realize that they will not be dislodging the Israelis and that it is time to do something for their own people rather than continuing to play politics.

What I am curious about is why isn't anyone insisting that Hamas formally recognize Israel? That never, ever gets discussed. There are a million and one other things discussed but no one ever addresses this. YET, this is the simplest thing in the world IF one really wants to end this horrible conflict. Israel will recognize the Palestinians... why won't they simply recognize Israel as the nation it was created to be?

Sadly, this is just a "pipe dream". Hamas has too much money to make and too much power to gain for them to do anything like that. The Israeli Right, I fear, would never accept this as it goes against the concept of Eretz Yisrael HaShlema. BUT, I do think there are some on the Israeli Right that might go along whereas I think there is no one in Hamas or in it's support base that would consider this.

But as an American, I sit here and wonder.... How is this so difficult? And WHY is this not even discussed?

BREAKING: ISRAELI FORCES STRIKE GAZA - OPERATION PILLAR OF DEFENSE (WIth Updates)

The Israeli Defense Forces have struck Gaza with over 20 air strikes. One of those strikes killed Ahmed Al-Jabari, commander of the the Izz al-Din Al-Qassam Brigades.
YNET is reporting

As part of the operation, Israeli aircraft struck at least 20 rocket-launching pads belonging to Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Dozens of long-range rockets were destroyed, including Fajr-5 missiles. The destroyed rockets and missiles had a range of more than 40 kilometers. 

The aerial strikes were accompanied by IDF tank fire at terror sites in Gaza. AFP reported that at least six Palestinians were killed in no less than 20 Israeli strikes in Gaza.

According to reports in Gaza, Israel also tried to kill Ra'ad al-Atar, another senior Izz al-Din al-Qassam commander. He apparently survived. The Palestinians reported that Israel attacked another top terrorist, but they did not release his name or say if he was killed in the strike.

Meanwhile, the IDF has decided to deploy additional infantry units in the south ahead of a possible ground offensive in Gaza. In addition, large IDF exercises have been halted and reserve soldiers have been called up.

Haaretz is also live blogging this here: http://www.haaretz.com/...
 
Note: It is behind a pay wall so if you can't see it, I recommend the YNET Site for updates

So what does all of this mean... Well it all started last week when Israeli tanks and Patrols were operating on the border with Gaza. The Israelis claim it was a routine operation. At that time miltants for the Popular Resistance Committee (PRC) fired an anti-tank missile into an Israeli Jeep wounding four Israeli soldiers. The Militants then fled into civilian Gaza.

Soon after the Israelis launched retaliatory air strikes which did kill some militants but also killed some civilians. In Gaza militants then started launching missiles into civilian areas of Israel. This has been going on for some time as I see pictures from a friends Kibbutz that has been getting shelled for a month.
What makes me think this is a major attack is that the Reserves have been called up and that troops in the South are on high alert.

What this means in the North and in the Sinai / Egypt - where Hamas founders the Muslim Brotherhood rule is anyone's guess. Right now the Egyptians have condemned the attack.

More to come.

10:32 AM PT: Update 1: HAMAS has stated: "No more Red Lines"...

Hamas is vowing to avenge the death of commander Ahmed Al-Jabari, who was killed in an airstrike earlier on Wednesday. Hamas official Ismail al-Ashqar said that the “resistance’s possibilities” are now open and include suicide bombings and high profile attacks inside Israeli cities. 

“The resistance can cause Israel great misery,” he said. Shortly after the hit, a Color Red siren sounded in Hof Ashkelon and two rockets exploded in an open area. No injuries were reported.

http://www.ynetnews.com/...

12:08 PM PT: Egypt's Government is predictably condemning this:

"Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr condemned the series of air strikes that Israel is currently conducting against Gaza Strip and which led to the killing of Ahmed Jabari," the statement released by Egypt's foreign ministry said.

"He called on Israel to stop its strikes on Gaza Strip immediately," the statement added.
Also:

On Tuesday, Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood sharply criticized Israeli leaders over airstrikes in the Gaza Strip, accusing them of heating up the conflict to score political points ahead of elections.
In its statement, the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party referred to Israel as a "Zionist occupier" and a "racist state," placing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman on the "fringes" of the "far right."

"In the framework of elections that Israel is witnessing is a recent military escalation against occupied Gaza and the occupied Golan Heights," the statement said. Israel has set parliamentary elections for January 22.

Militants in Gaza have fired more than 110 rockets towards southern Israel since Saturday, when four soldiers were wounded in an anti-tank missile attack on an IDF jeep, and six Palestinians have been killed in the ensuing IDF strikes on the Gaza Strip in response.

http://www.haaretz.com/...

And why look - our "Radical Islam Loving" President (/snark) showed just why he was the right choice for the Jewish people and for Israel despite the fevered lying of the Deranged Right Wing:

4:13 PM PT: Egypt has recalled it's ambassador to Israel and Israel has recalled it's ambassador to Egypt.
And this from the U.S.: http://www.ynetnews.com/...

We support Israel's right to defend itself, and we encourage Israel to continue to take every effort to avoid civilian casualties," US State Department spokesman Mark Toner said in a statement on Wednesday.

"We strongly condemn the barrage of rocket fire from Gaza into southern Israel, and we regret the death and injury of innocent Israeli and Palestinian civilians caused by the ensuing violence," he added.

Shells in the North, Shells in the South - An Israeli Dilemna

As we have all been seeing of late, Palestinian Militants in Gaza have once again begun raining shells on Southern Israel. Additionally, now shells from the Syrian Civil War have begun to fall on the Golan. As of yesterday, Gunners from the FSA (The Free Syrian Army - an odd collection of Social revolutionaries and, and Al-Qaeda operatives funded by the reactionary Gulf States) missed their mark and dropped mortars into the Golan. After numerous warnings the IDF reacted with Tanks stationed on the border and scored a direct hit on the mortar position. From YNET:

Twenty-four hours after the IDF first retaliated against a mortar that was fired from Syria and hit Israeli territory, another shell struck the Israeli side of the Golan Heights, just north of Tel Hazeka. No injuries or damage were reported.

Shortly thereafter, the IDF returned fire, using tanks deployed along the border to target two D-3 mortar launchers belonging to the Syrian army. A direct hit was identified.

This return of fire drew criticism from the FSA, a claim of partisanship by the Israelis on the side of the Butcher Assad. 

At the same time civilian communities in the South face heavy rocket fire from Militant groups in Gaza. According to Ma'an News, A group of Israeli tanks and Bulldozers were operating on the Gaza border around the security fence when gunmen from the Popular Resistance Committees opened fire on the Israelis.

Israeli military vehicles briefly penetrated the southern Gaza Strip earlier Thursday morning, leading to clashes with Palestinian militants.

The Popular Resistance Committees said its gunmen had confronted an Israeli force of four tanks and a bulldozer involved in a short-range incursion beyond Israel's border fence with the Gaza Strip.

"Terrorists opened fire at IDF (Israeli army) soldiers while they were performing routine activity adjacent to the security fence," an Israeli military spokeswoman said in Jerusalem. She said reports of Palestinians injuries were being checked.

A military official said the soldiers responded by firing at "suspicious locations" and said an Israeli soldier was lightly injured by mortar fire.

Palestinian fighters said they detonated an explosive device by an Israeli military vehicle near Khuzaa, east of Khan Younis.

In this case the Israelis struck back and since then the shells have been falling in the South. Of course, in recent months, militants from the South have been launching rockets into Israel on a regular basis and while no one has been killed there has been damage and fear in these civilian areas. On a personal note, having a friend at a kibbutz in the area - he tells me that the fire has been incessant and has caused damage.

Of course (and rightly so), the Israeli government has vowed to take steps to defend both borders and has done so. I don't think anyone in their right mind can argue with that. SO... where do they face any dilemma's?

Well... in the South, another Cast Lead Operation style runs the risk of bringing the Egyptians into the conflict OR if not actually into the conflict brings a potential abrogation of the Peace Treaty with Israel and return to the "Cold War" days of Nasser (and in the beginning Sadat). Currently the Egyptians are working with both the Israelis and Hamas to broker a cease fire deal and to be honest it is in the Egyptian regimes interest to get that cease fire. They can ill-afford a potential conflict with Israel as they continue to deal with an economy that has been shattered by greed and abuse.

However, the Muslim Brotherhood (the Parent organization of the ruling Freedom and Justice Party) has been out in the streets whipping up opposition to the Peace treaty in order to distract the Public from the economic woes of the nation AND to push an introduction of strict Sharia into the Egyptian Legal system.

SO, Egypt of course is in a dilemma in which should the Israelis respond in "Cast Lead" Fashion - the Egyptians in order to avoid a full scale internal political crises need to respond with gestures of their own. If they don't, they will face open revolt (a revolt that they are really to blame for by stoking crowds), and if they do they respond - they will face all the problems that come from the SCAF (the armed forces) losing commercial deals not too mention a conflict with their main benefactor; the U.S. Government.

At the same time the Israelis, heading into an election face issues of their own. PM Netanyahu HAS to do something regarding the Rocket Fire in the South. Today, Amos Harel and Avi Isaacheroff in Haaretz talked about the possibility that while there would not be a Cast Lead response - there might be a retaliation based around targeted assassination.

I suggest reading Harel and Isaacherof here as there is great insight into this dilemna where right now the only political winner is looking Hamas (who simply doesn't care what happens to Gaza or the local population as long as they can remain in the vanguard of "resistance"):

Gaza, however, remains the main problem for Netanyahu. The more intensely the southern residents protest what they see as the government's abandonment of their security, the more seriously he will have to consider taking tougher measures, with a resumption of targeted killings the most likely possibility. 

Netanyahu, who is preparing for January's election, is already being attacked in the political arena for not responding more forcefully. But he knows that his range of options against Hamas is limited. Israel is at this stage trying to avoid a ground operation a la Cast Lead. One reason is that the diplomatic reality now is far different than it was when that offensive was launched in 2008: Israel fears a direct confrontation with the new regime in Egypt and it knows that neither the United States nor Europe will be as tolerant of a large-scale military operation this time around.

There was no evidence Sunday along the Gaza border that the IDF was making any special preparations for an operation. Assassinations don't require very much preparation, though. All that's needed is a decision, but that, too, is a gamble, because it's hard to know how Hamas would react to such an initiative. Right now Hamas is looking pretty sure of itself. Its leaders didn't hesitate to take responsibility for some of the attacks over this past week, in a way that Israel saw as particularly provocative

Now, as for the North... Well, getting drawn into a civil war with a country that no matter who wins, will be hostile to Israel is yet another issue. If the FSA wins and ends the cruelty and barbarism of the Assad regime towards it's own people, chances are that an Islamist government (funded by the Saudi Wahabi regime and conservative Gulf States) would take control and in the chaos that would ensue, Israelis would face a Syrian regime with ties to Al-Qaeda on it's Southern Border.

On the other hand should Assad and his Iranian allies win in Syria, Israel would then face a solid Iranian alliance in the form of the Government of Syria AND the quasi Hizbollah State (formerly known as Lebanon </snark>) on their Northern border. A situation that can lead to nothing but no good.

If the Israelis intervene here (and as Harel and Isaacheroff report that they have no desire to do), they will immediately give a boost to whomever they intervene against. If they intervene against FSA and Al-Qaeda militants they give the militants the mantle of being the folks who are resisting not only Assad but also the "hated Israelis", and that would go a long ways to keeping the money and equipment flowing to the Rebels. At the same time should they intervene against Assad and the military, they make the rebels look like "Israeli tools" and hand the Assad regime an invaluable political point to justify it's continued war against it's own population.

SO.... we are left with this: "What is the answer?". Personally, I see no good responses here but I do see some opportunities. NOW, is a time when Israel can completely deflate Hamas by dealing with the Palestinians in the West Bank and working for a comprehensive Peace deal. This is a chance to open negotiations and for the Israelis to illustrate just WHY their security concerns need to be paramount. It can be a diplomatic win for them and if progress is achieved in negotiations in the West Bank can serve to show just how ineffective violent resistance is.

As for Syria, Israel needs to simply defend it's borders but should avoid anything further the more they simply respond yet not engage unless engaged the better it is. The Syrian situation is just one that can spin completely out control and cause massive havoc for the Israelis.

Finally as for Gaza, Personally I favor the Harel and Isaacheroff response (targeted assassinations) towards a Cast Lead style incursion. It may come to that in the end but, I think once the Hamas and Militant leaders get the message that if they show their heads in public they might just lose those heads.... they will be at the table with the Egyptian Leadership (and SCAF) telling them to make a deal. Because if the Israelis can isolate Hamas and separate them from the Palestinian polity. The Rocket fire just might possibly end.

Right Wing Jews Are Endangering Israel By Trying To Make It A Partisan Wedge

I have contended in the past that right wing Jews who claim to be motivated by love of Israel to support Republicans are actually trying to do the inverse.  They are motivated by love of Republicans and are to use Israel as a wedge to benefit Republicans.  It is like the tail wagging the dog.  I think this has been completely laid bare in the most recent election.

For people of all political stripes who care about Israel, this presents a huge potential problem.  Like any wedge issue, this one may have its intended effect and divide the electorate.  Given that we have had and currently have an electorate that has been largely supportive of Israel and Americas ties to Israel, this is a very bad thing for people who support Israel.

Support for Israel in American political discourse has long been bi-partisan, and it still largely is.  It is one of the rare issues that is so in our hyper-polarized age, and that has been an amazing gift for American supporters of Israel, allowing us to maintain America's crucial support for Israel through different administrations and Congressional changes.  However, if right wing Jews succeed in making it a wedge, then support for Israel will no longer be bi-partisan.  Support for Israel will be identified with one political party, and then by definition be shut out of power half the time.

-------------------

I read such intense vitriol directed at liberal Jews from right wing Jews.  They think that liberal Jews are all communist agitators who want to bomb Israel off the face of the Earth.  This post from PJ media is a typical example.  It makes me wonder if those kinds of authors and the commenters have ever actually met any liberal American Jews or have ever been to the places where they live. Or if they have ever been to Israel and seen the tremendous political diversity among Zionist Jews there.

It is clear that right wing Jews are trying to drive the message that if you support Israel, you have to be on the right wing.  They've even demonized Alan Dershowitz, who is one of the most important pro-Israel voices in America, because he is a Democrat.  And the amount of vitriol that they've directed at President Obama is astounding, brazenly calling him an antisemite.  Whether one loves or hates his policies, it is clear that the President is not an antisemite, given that people closest to him in his inner circle have included, for example, Chiefs of Staff Rahm Emmanuel (served in the Israeli Army) and Jack Lew (Orthodox Jew).

-------------------

Liberal American Jews won't, en masse, turn on Israel if a wedge is driven by these right wing Jews, but liberal non-Jews will.  There is creeping anti-Israelism and anti-Semitism on the left, as evidenced by the antics at places such as Daily Kos and Huffington Post that have been documented here and elsewhere.  If support for Israel becomes identified in the public discourse as a "right wing" or "Republican" thing, then it will push much of the left to be against that, and into the opposite camp.  That's how polarized American politics works, because most Americans, left and right, buy their politics wholesale and don't follow individual issues carefully.

By trying to force a wedge to boost Republicans, right wing Jews are endangering Israel.

It would be slightly less ridiculous if right wing Jews were at least succeeding in boosting Republicans with these shenanigans, but even that doesn't seem to be the case.  In spite of the last several years of constant shrill vitriol against the President, Democrats, and liberal and centrist Jews, and the hundreds of millions of dollars thrown in by the likes of Sheldon Adelson, the President was reelected this week, Democrats had a substantial nationwide victory, and studies indicate that the Jewish vote hardly moved from being solidly Democratic. 

Support for Israel has been amazingly bi-partisan and enduring in American politics in recent decades, and that has been one of the greatest benefits to Israel as it faces constant challenges from its hostile neighbors.  But now, right wing Jews, by dishonestly presenting support for Israel as exclusively a right wing trait and demonizing famous liberal supporters of Israel, are trying to force American discourse on Israel away from a somewhat broad bi-partisan consensus and toward partisan polarization.  They may very well succeed, and this will profoundly harm Israel.

If right wing Jews really care about Israel, they should cease trying to use it as a wedge, and accept that support for Israel should be bi-partisan to the largest extent possible.  If instead, what they really care about is advancing Repubicans and Israel is simply a means to that end, then it is obvious that they will continue to do as they are doing, and Israel will suffer for it.

So.... Now What? A Personal Perspective....

So... What now? Last night... the question asked of me by a good friend. What now? The President was re-elected, CA has a super-majority of Dems. running the show, he said, "What do you think?" and I had to think on that for a few minutes. And then I had to think for a few minutes more.

Prior to the election I had really been into Middle East politics. Some friends and I founded Team Shalom here, along with other Jewish advocacy groups. This interest took the form of creating a weekly news series dedicated to multiple perspectives on the news called "Fry'd Daze". We ran it for over two years and decided that since no one was much interested after a time, that there was no real point in continuing. So I thought to myself; "Why not get back into that issue?", I mean I have friends and family there, I semi-know the language, I practice Israeli Martial Arts, I read their on-line newspapers (Haaretz and Ynet) every day, I get polling updates from Israel on a regular basis.

But then I was dissuaded in two ways. The first was by the situation itself. It is a mess (belagan in Hebrew). I am not happy with the Israeli Right, who not only pursue policies that I simply don't agree with, but helped form a coalition of racists, crazy people and morons (who simply can't discern fact from fiction and have even stated that Republicans are hippies compared to the people that President Obama supports) to push their cause in the U.S. And arguing against them is fine BUT from all I can see, and according to all of the polls coming out of Israel, they will retain power and do it rather easily. At the same time, I certainly have absolutely ZERO in common with those that support trashing Israel publicly to prove what "good Jews they are" along with I don't see anything that I can support coming from the Palestinian side. So, while I would love to advocate for the Israeli Center and Center-Left (Meretz, Avodah, Yesh-Atid and Tzipi Livni - whatever she is doing), they can't even get themselves together so what the heck am I advocating for?
 
The second thing that dissuaded me are my Israeli friends. They don't understand U.S. individual advocacy for their cause. They appreciate that I feel a connection to them but honestly, I never went through what they have been through and they have not been through what I went through. They care about Jews and Jewish identity, but to them, unless we are moving there or giving them money, honestly... it is not a big deal. It really is this... that convinced me that while I still have an interest in things, honestly... it is not and should not be my main focus. They are right, I am an American. I should worry about my own country before thinking about any other. Watching the Presidents brilliant victory speech brought a complete welling of national pride for our great nation. We did the right thing this year and for that I am grateful. Of course, I will still write on the subject but it is not up to me to tell Israelis what to do. Not from my happy little perch in beautiful California.
 
So... Now what? I think it is to help push the President's agenda forward in a progressive manner. NOT to become bitter at the incremental progress he makes but, to try to make sure that things like sane budgeting, environmental improvement, education enhancement continue on the path that the President has started.
Making sure that we get the reasonable healthcare that the Affordable Care Act is supposed to provide. Making sure that the President knows NOT to cave in to Speaker Boehner and the failed policy proposals of the Teahaddists. Making sure, that we as Americans get renewables front and center in our energy policy, and finally making sure that Seniors and those who need assistance the most don't lose their social safety net and have the ability to live their lives with dignity.

I want to see the President that I voted for, and what President Obama became in the last year and a half and that is my cause. A liberal/progressive system of government that allows for the better nature of Americans to shine through. Because of this election I have that hope. Now, it's time to make that real.

THIS is what I want:

Jewish Americans Break Hard for President Obama, the Lunatic Fringe Scratch their Heads

This year one of the biggest pushes by the Republicans (contextually not literally) was with Jewish American voters. In a highly negative attack campaign, The Republican Jewish Committee and the Emergency Committee for Israel have literally spent YEARS and millions and millions of dollars all to warn all of us Jewish voters that President Obama was a Muslim Brotherhood loving, Jihadi Sympathizer who wanted nothing more than to bring destruction down upon our brothers and sisters in Israel as well as eventually submit the U.S. to Sharia Law.

They pulled out well known racist Pamela Geller to go around calling Muslims "savages", and talked about siding with Israel and "civilization". They even borrowed images of Israeli Prime Minister talking about Nukes in Iran to attack President Obama and on their websites talked about the President actually helping Iran get nukes.

They downplayed President Obama's true friendship with the nation of Israel and it's people. They downplayed the fact that America bankrolled Israel's Iron Dome Missile Defense system. They downplayed the fact that America and Israeli security cooperation are at an all time high. They did everything they could to minimize the words of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Israeli President Shimon Peres who called President Obama an "exceptional friend".

But worse than that... They played their game on the racist assumption that American Jews were not really interested in America. They assumed all we cared about was Israel and stopping "Teh Islamic Menace". They simply NEVER figured out that despite what every poll showed, Jewish American voters are Liberal and Jewish American voters prioritize their own country over any other. These folks simply played the racist Dual Loyalty Canard WITHIN our own community.

All of this, the racism, the lies and the hatred were all to swing two or three states that were going to be close to the Republican column.

But in their delusions and derangement over President Obama (and his middle name as well as his upbringing), they simply never really understood American Jewish voters and honestly... Still don't. That is why they are sitting there today in a state of shock. They simply thought things like this:

Whatever good Obama may have done, none of it comes close to the damage that he is doing with his embrace and acceptance of political Islam.  This is not just damage to the state of Israel, nor the Jewish people, it is damage done to the United States and to the west, in general.

and

Most American Jews, thankfully, are not ultra-super sophisticated progressive-left genius Jews, but it is the genius Jews that most loudly sing the praises of an administration that is friendly toward political Islam.  Political Islam, needless to say, seeks to oppress women, commit genocide upon the Jewish people, slaughter Gay people outright, and impose Islamic Supremacy, via sharia, upon the west.

and the propagandists thought THIS drivel is what would bring Jewish Americans to support Mitt Romney. And that is where they failed, and failed completely. Why? Because Jewish American voters are concerned with the well being of their fellow Americans first and foremost. We saw Paul Ryan's Medicare killing budget that would have put American seniors into a voucher system. We saw Mitt Romney's lie after lie where he never defined a plan outside of various catch phrases and slogans. We saw the Republicans run TWO candidates for Senate that talked about things like "Legitimate Rape" and "Pregnancy from Rape as G-d's will". If that were not enough, we saw Republicans running on platforms to deny LGBT Americans their equal rights, and do all of the things they were so worried about happening in the Islamic world.

As American Jews and Liberals, it's not that we didn't/don't see what happens in Islamic nations, and it's not like we think the blending of religion with the state is not dangerous... BUT we were much more concerned with what was happening here in our own nation. We were concerned with American children that would have faced incredible hardships brought on by Republican Policies. We were concerned for Women's Health and Reproductive Rights. We were concerned with all of the civil rights that would have been at risk in a Republican / Teahaddist America.

Oh and as for Israel which is important to us but not on the level that the Republicans or their ODS (Obama Derangement Syndrome) suffering friends think... We see President Obama as a strong friend to Israel and to Jews worldwide. Because, you see, not all of us buy into the Right Wing narrative that is threatening to destroy Israel. Most of us understand that the Right's reliance and fear and hatred is just that. We can see that the President is a man who cares about our community and nation.

In the end all of that hate and $ 40 million dollars could do nothing to stop the 70% of Jewish Americans that stood up and were counted to support our friend and President, Barack Obama. Sure the Republicans siphoned off 8% of the Jewish vote from 2008, but the country as a whole was off from it's previous level of popular support.

As Jay Michelson in the Forward put it so well:

Well, turns out a lot of people, including most Jews. The Jewish bubble, like other conservative bubbles, was burst yesterday. Not only did America vote for the Kenyan Socialist, but American Jews did as well. And they even elected “anti-Semites” who support moving slowly (but resolutely) on Iran and moving deliberately (but securely) toward a Palestinian state. 

This happened not because of ignorance, and not because of Jewish self-hatred, but because outside of the right-wing echo chamber, mainstream American Jews voted their values, and didn’t believe the incredibly heavily funded propaganda that tried to scare them on Israel and other issues. Most Jews simply do not live in the bubble of the professional-Jewish ‘consensus.’

And that is the truth

J Street ad from after Obama won.

So expect liberal
Shalom!

I was WRONG and I could not be HAPPIER

The day before the election I put out my prediction diary which posited an Obama Win in the Electoral College by a razor thin margin.... 272-266. I gave Florida, Virginia and Ohio (but to be fair I thought the Republicans would only win Ohio because of dirty tactics from the Secretary of State)....

In the popular vote I predicted a close election of 49.5% - 49% with 1% going to various independents. Again.... I WAS WRONG!

For the Senate... One more time... I was wrong. I underestimated the American people and their desire to stand up to the dark elements of the Republican Party. I figured if we could put people like Allen West and Michelle Bachmann into positions of power... the other loons could win. SO, I was happily surprised when I saw West and other Teahaddists went down.

It is with all of this in mind that I GLADLY say that I have absolutely no skill as a prognosticator of political situations (though that won't stop me from continuing to try and there were some things I got very right - the Jewish vote and the Colorado vote).

I am so very happy this morning that we as Americans won last night. I awoke this morning with a huge sigh of relief and with hope that our nation will get out from the cloud of fear and hate that the Right had spread.

To My Republican and Conservative Friends, Family, and Readers

I know yesterday's election was a heartbreaker for you. 

The President was re-elected with a majority of the popular vote and with only two fewer states than he won last time.  The Democrats actually expanded their majority in the Senate.  For the first time ever, voters approved same sex marriage in several states, and even weed was legalized in two states. In California we passed Governor Brown's tax increase and Democrats got a supermajority in both houses of the legislature for the first time ever. 

Yesterday was quite a major victory for the center-left in America, and quite a major loss for the center-right.  The thing is, I know what it is like to lose an election.  It happened to my side in 2000, 2002, and 2004 - three times in a row.  It is utterly heartbreaking.  So unlike other people, I am not going to gloat about yesterday, I am going to say I am empathetic for your loss and I hope we can all move forward together. 

BUT, in return, I am going to ask of you one thing. It is a simple and polite request from a fellow citizen.

We have all been given some very dire predictions about what would happen in the case that Obama was re-elected.  These predictions have come from major pillars of the American Right, such as Fox Channel personalities, many Republican Party elected officials such as Michelle Bachmann and Allan West, and pundits such as Barry Rubin and Dinesh D'souza.  The later even made an entire movie on the topic of predicting what America will look like in 2016 if Obama wass reelected. 

There have been claims that America will become socialist, that we will simply lose our freedom.   There have been predictions that religion or guns will be banned.  There have been predictions that marriages and families will fall apart if gay marriage goes forward.  And, most importantly for this blog, there have also been many claims that Iran will get a nuclear weapon and that Israel will be abandoned, all if Obama won another term.

So what I am asking of my Republican and conservative friends, family, and readers is this:  IF, in four years, America is not a socialist hellhole, if in four years there have been no moves to limit freedom of religion or Second Amendment rights, if in four years the divorce rate is the same or lower, if in four years Iran does not have a nuclear weapon and Israel is in the same or a better security situation than today and has not been abandoned by this administration...

will you open your mind to the possibility that the above mentioned entities, the Fox Channels, the Allan Wests, the Barry Rubins and Dinesh D'souzas, have all been misleading you?  Will you open your mind to the possibility that these people are simply incorrect, when their predictions don't come true?

PZ PREDICTIONS FOR ELECTION 2012

Ok... Six Months ago I diaried this here and I am going to stick with predictions here on Election Eve.

Here goes...

Popular Vote:

Candidates going either way 49.5% vs. 49%

What do I base this on.... I realize that President Obama has the RV lead AND I realize that the LV voter numbers are skewed Republican in this particular race. That said, I believe that voting shenanigans (and I include vote fixing on machines) in Ohio, and Florida will simply change dynamics there. I think they will change dynamics enough to throw those states (yep, I am painting Ohio Red) to Mittens. It will simply be stealing votes and noting more. If people in Ohio had a fair shake I think the state would reflect the polls but they don't and their Republican Secretary of State will make sure that people don't have that.

As for Florida, Governor Rick Scott treats voting in the same way as Kim Il Jong did. As we have seen, they are running things like it was a "third world nation". Personally, I just don't see this one breaking our way with him in that seat and his administration running the show down there.

THEN finally, I think Hurricane Sandy will depress voter turnout in NY and NJ. I think the President STILL wins handily there but, I just think the after effects of the Hurricane will drop Democratic voter numbers.
If there were no Republican shenanigans in Florida or Ohio I would gladly predict the vote totals to go hard for the President but I just don't see it at this point. I think it will be within .5% either way.

Electoral Vote:

I think it ends up 272-266 in favor of President Obama... .

How do I get there. I believe the President carries all of his base states PLUS Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin. I give Virginia to the Repubs, along with N.C., Florida, and the too be stolen Ohio.

I believe that while the Republicans have turned out strong in early voting in Colorado, I think people underestimate the Latino vote and what that can do there. Given the President's superior ground game, I believe that this will be enough to tip the scales to him.

I fully understand that the Ohio scenario seems wacky but given the events of 2000 (in Florida) and 2004 (in Ohio), I think we have a Republican party that will stoop to any low to steal an election and frankly that no one will do anything about it. HOWEVER, I don't think that they will be able to steal this one because the President is too strong in all of those other states.

As for the Senate:

I go with my one of my favorite politicians Elizabeth Warren to win her race. I think that Claire McCaskill wins her race in a nail biter against Todd "legitimate rape" Akin, BUT I think that Joe Donnelly loses to Richard "Rape is just G-d's plan" Mourdock because people are just that stupid (if you doubt me just look at the fact that there are Rep.'s Bachman, West, Walsh just to name a few).

All in all I think the Dems. hold the Senate at 50-48 (with the independents caucusing with the Dems.)
Now hopefully I am wrong and this is a big win for President Obama. BUT in all of my years (all 50 of them) I have seen things I list that make me a bit less optimistic for this election season. STILL, I think the President will win the election and I would be surprised if he didn't. I do though, think it will be a nail biter.
There are my predictions... What are yours?

Mitt says: "Vote for me... Or Else"

According to TPM Mitt Romney has decided to go all out and tell the American people: "Vote for Me or else...."

Yep, he is telling us that if we don't elect him, his party will trash the U.S. Economy.

Romney said that Obama “promised to be a post-partisan president, but he became the most partisan” and that his bitter relations with the House GOP could threaten the economy. As his chief example, he pointed to a crisis created entirely by his own party’s choice — Republican lawmakers’ ongoing threat to reject a debt ceiling increase. Economists warn that a failure to pass such a measure would have immediate and catastrophic consequences for the recovery. 

“You know that if the President is re-elected, he will still be unable to work with the people in Congress,” Romney said. “He has ignored them, attacked them, blamed them. The debt ceiling will come up again, and shutdown and default will be threatened, chilling the economy.”

So basically, he is saying unless we vote for him... Republicans will shut down the U.S. government. Rather than saying that Republicans should compromise and work towards solving America's problems first, he admits that the only thing Republicans care about is maintaining power.

And of course... here is the ultimate projection (hypocrisy)...

“I won’t spend my effort trying to pass partisan legislation that’s unrelated to economic growth,” Romney said. “From day one, I will go to work to help Americans get back to work.”

Saying this as he is supported by a party that is saying "Pass our Partisan concerns or we will shut down the country's economy"... Just one more reason why we have to GOTV like mad for the President and for Congress, and make sure that these hacks cannot continue to hold America hostage.

Mitt Romney's Latest Endorsement

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ltCIEbLMaQg" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ltCIEbLMaQg

C. Montgomery Burns endorsing Mitt....

OF course the Obama Derangement Syndrome crowd and their masters over at the RJC will be saying "But, but, but.... Mitt's a better friend of Israel (despite the fact that he would do absolutely NOTHING different than President Obama would do with regards to Jerusalem and Egypt, and would indeed simply do nothing at all with regards to working on a Peace deal, and despite the fact that these critics actually live in the U.S. and despite their wildest fantasies neither live in Israel nor have the guts to make Aliyah - if they even know what that is).

But remember these folks also think that regardless of the 47% comment, the support for a candidate who throws his weight behind a Senator who thinks Women's bodies can shut down pregnancy after a "legitimate rape", the fact that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan want to eviscerate Medicare, the fact that Mitt Romney wants to do away with (and privatize) FEMA, and host of other nonsensical positions that somehow, on some plane of reality, in some distant galaxy a man who supports the baptism of Holocaust victims to the Mormon Church is a friend to both Jews and the American people.

This is the perfect endorsement for Mitt... Now he just need the racist vote (which he has to fight Ron Paul for) and he has the perfect triumvirate: The Greedy, The Stupid, and the The Racists.  Perfect.

"Etch-A-Sketch" EXPOSED Point-By-Point: New York Times Details Romney's "Modulation"

POSTED FROM IAN REIFOWITZ OVER AT DAILY KOS

What's so great about this front page New York Times article is that it is a straight news piece, not something on the opinion page. Nevertheless, the article offers a simply devastating, piece-by-piece analysis of the incredible shape-shifting candidacy of Mitt Romney. It's a blow-by-blow account of Romney's attempt to Etch-A-Sketch away his "severely conservative" positions and rhetoric of the past 12 months and more and replace them with the new-found, bipartisan, "moderate" Mitt of the past four weeks. For a reminder, here's an Obama video including the "severely conservative" remark, and other choice statements by the Governor.

The article describes how Romney shifted his rhetoric on a whole host of topics. He's gone from emphasizing the need for two parent, heterosexual families to praising single moms. Romney has stopped talking about how Barack Obama is essentially a European socialist who doesn't get America, and now gushes about how "Democrats love America too," and about how well he'd get along with them.

But the article's author, Michael Barbaro, doesn't let Romney off the hook. He doesn't criticize Romney for his "modulation," he merely offers his analysis of the situation. Barbaro notes that a good chunk (one-third) of recently polled voters in a New York Times/CBS survey believed that Romney is more moderate now than before he was nominated. Barbaro notes that, although this may have been a necessary move, it is "one that holds peril for Mr. Romney."

Barbaro continues:

The tone and substance of his closing argument risks raising the questions about consistency and authenticity that have dogged him, tracking with his muddied stance on issues like amnesty for young illegal immigrants, Pell grants for college students and limits on abortions.

Barbaro reminds us of Romney's characterization of himself as a "severely conservative" governor, and broadens out the contrast between then and now.

Rewind to the primaries: Mr. Romney sounded much less centrist. He said then that Tea Party members, known for their uncompromising rigidity, would find him “the ideal candidate.” He also questioned his rival Rick Santorum’s conservative credentials, citing a vote to fund Planned Parenthood.

This article is no partisan, slashing attack. What it represents, however, is the mainstream media -- symbolized by the front page of the New York Times -- accepting the reality and the narrative of Mitt Romney as an unprincipled politician who will literally say anything, even if it directly contradicts his own positions. His willingness to lie is, of course, another issue. On that as well, however, the NYT had a front page article on Wednesday that made it clear to readers (without using the word) that Romney was, well, lying in his statements and his ad about Chrysler/Jeep and jobs being moved to China. 

The Etch-A-Sketch won't work. The media, finally, is starting to do it's job. Now it's our turn to do our job, and get out there to help re-elect Barack Obama.

PS-Please check out my new book Obama's America: A Transformative Vision of Our National Identity, published last month by Potomac Books, where I discuss these issues in greater detail. You can read a review by DailyKos's own Greg Dworkin here.