Yesterday was the first round of new elections for the leadership of Avodah (Israel's Labor Party), and while there are no results to publish Haaretz, ran a poll of Israeli voters and the results are surprising.
From Haaretz:
Less than a day after the first round of voting in the Labor Party’s election for a new leader, it seems that there is still life in the once-powerful party, which had been written off after years of in-fighting and an ever diminishing parliamentary presence.
Based on the results of a Haaretz poll conducted Tuesday night in conjunction with Dialog, if nationwide elections were held today, a Labor party led by journalist-turned-politician Shelly Yachimovich would win 22 out of the Knesset's 120 parliamentary seats. Were Labor headed by Yachimovich’s key rival Amir Peretz, the former party leader who resigned after the Second Lebanon War, it would win 18 seats in a general election held today.
This is a significant jump from the 13 seats Labor secured in the last elections, of which it only now has eight, after Ehud Barak jumped ship in January to form the Independence party, taking his cabal of four MKs with him. Apparently, this is the first instance of a leader rehabilitating a political party by leaving it.
Previous polls had suggested that Avodah would slightly gain strength in the coming elections but to suggest 22 Seats... that is quite the gain. Most of this gain as the article suggests would be at the expense of Kadima (a party created mainly to shore up Ariel Sharon and his bid to withdraw from Gaza) which had included Avodah in coalition had moved from being a Likud knockoff to something more Centrist.
Labors demise had been a long time in the making and seemed to culminate in the fourth place finish in the 2009 election where under the leadership of Ehud Barak they finished with 13 seats in the Knesset. Since that time they were reduced to 8 seats with the defection of Barak and four MK's when they left and formed Atz'maout. However, since then particularly with the Yachminovich's candidacy Avodah has been gaining strength.
One question I would have regarding the Haaretz poll is this:
With Yachimovich at the helm, Kadima would lose six of its 28 seats to Labor; with Peretz in charge, Labor would take four of Kadima’s seats.
So if (as the article states) Labor would have 22 seats where do the other eight seats come from? Right now the math works this way.. Labor has 8 seats. They pick up 6 seats from Kadima which would take them to 14 seats. So where are the other eight coming from. Meretz? Atz'maout? YB? Likud?
The next question I would ask is that if this is tied to the economic protests of the summer. I do know that Yachimovich was looking hawkish on security but reaching out to the protestors economic and social concerns. I am wondering if that blend of leftist economics and centerist/rightist security advocacy fits in with the way Israelis are thinking.
A favorite site of mine for Israeli Polling data is Jeremy's Daily Knesset Blog. Jeremy tracks polling from a number of different sources. I am looking forward to seeing the whole poll here but in his last two polls he shows the Right Gaining although he also show Labor picking up seats. One part of his poll shows the tent protestors or Yair Lapid getting up to 20 seats should they run... With Yachimovich at the helm of Labor I wonder if that would still be the case (I highly doubt it). But in any case read the site. It has all of the happenings in the Knesset and so forth.
With all the goings on in the area this is an "under the radar" story that could be important. I think it is well worth checking out.
Shalom!
There are a few things I have to wonder about the effects of the polling. The first is how Netanyahu reacts if YB becomes the second-largest party in the Knesset, or, at the very least, close to it. At that point, Lieberman will clearly be jockeying for leadership of the right and the fissures of the right will be there for all to see.
ReplyDeleteLieberman represents one-wing of the right in the classical tough guy pose. In this, he is, in many ways, Sharon's heir. Netanyahu, on the other hand, is a more typical classical European liberal conservative. Therefore, a gain of strength for Lieberman on the right could wind up pushing Netanyahu more towards the center with other politicians who share ideologies grounded in the western tradition.
The second thing I wonder about is the prospect of a Kadima-Avodah joint list. After all, the Likud began as a joint list between Herut and the Liberals. It would also have the effect of putting the largest peace camp parties under one umbrella. The difficulty I would see in that is forming a common economic policy, as much of Kadima's economic policy aligns with liberalism, rather than Netanyahu's neo-liberalism or Avodah's social democracy / democratic socialism.
Personally, I think a Livni ministry with Mofaz as Defense Minister and Avodah controlling the economic and social ministries could do quite well if that's what's presented to the Israeli people. It would show that the government is serious about peace, serious about security and serious about addressing the concerns brought to the fore by the tent protests.
Interesting... I wonder about that as well with Lieberman... but remember, Lieberman is young (as politicians go) he has time to work to the Right. I don't see Likud spinning Left or moderate anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteAs for Kadima/Avodah... That could happen sooner rather than later. Kadima as some Israeli friends have said is sort of an artificial construct. I can see a time if the social problems are not addressed that the Left Wing of Kadima folds into Labor and the Right folds to Likud or YB. Of course, then that takes us back to square one and the potential rise of another "centrist" party.
I agree with your last paragraph whole heartedly. The issue of course is blending security, peace and cries for social justice. Yachimovich from what I have seen is tacking this way (although she seems more rightist on Peace than even Barak from some things I have read - I could be wrong).
It would be interesting to see Avodah make a comeback.
I think in this area you need several people, as it is simply too much for one person to handle. A prime minister can set an overall direction, but in a country like Israel, where there are coalitions, and not majority parties, the ministers do have great leeway within their own ministries, particularly when they are party leaders.
ReplyDeleteFor example, if when Tony Blair was the British Prime Minister, if he fired a member of the cabinet, sure, it might make news, but it wouldn't endanger his position in Downing Street. However, should an Israeli PM fire a member of the cabinet not from their own party, that could trigger a motion of no confidence, which, in turn, could trigger a new election.
Also, I do think that a united center and left, running on a secure peace and social justice could win a Knesset majority, or, at least, close enough to a Knesset majority, that would allow them to actually implement their agenda.
The social justice/security path has been long been touted as the path to a leftist revival. Finally Labor woke up. Yachimovich's presence at the social justice protests was a wise political move. She jumped in early and was rewarded.
ReplyDeleteIt's also possible that the protests made people believe that any political process or party could lead to any change again. Perhaps people who had been political skeptics moved over to Labor.
Despite Labor's sad state in recent years, I never believed it would completely die. Too much history.
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ReplyDeleteGreat post, excellent comments.
ReplyDeleteSomething volley said gets me, though - what part of Kadima would ever conceivably fold into YB? I can see Likud, but...
???
I've always considered myself as someone who'd be Meretz, but these days I think I actually lean Avodah right now.
"Apparently, this is the first instance of a leader rehabilitating a political party by leaving it."
Heh.
I'm not an Israeli, of course, so whatever.
But anyway...
Keep on talkin'!
Anon.... I have heard it as well but I don't know if this is a "Leftist revival" except possibly in Economic/internal Israeli social justice terms.
ReplyDeleteLately I am not sure what to make of the internal workings of Israeli politics but it's very interesting.
As for the demise of Avodah... I thought they were done after the split despite history. Man, was I wrong.
Anyway, good comment and I hope you will post more here.
Jay - there is a far right element of Kadima also. Remember they were started by Arik Sharon after all in a breakaway from Likud. I could see one or two folks going with YB out of nationalist reasons and avoiding any of the religious elements of Likud or others.
ReplyDeleteBut I am venturing far afield here so I would read about it rather than necessarily take my word for it.
Social justice is the core of leftism.... so yeah. That would qualify as a revival.
ReplyDeleteSo, do you take this to mean that Israel's shift to the right, especially since the second intifada, may have peaked and we are possibly seeing an Israeli insurgence on the left?
ReplyDeleteCould very well be, VB.
Could very well be.
No not necessarily Karma.... All polling data (as I showed at Jeremy's Knesset Blog) shows continuing electoral support for the Right (and I think this is over security issues).
ReplyDeleteHowever, the tent protests did give the civil left a leg up due to the corruption, greed, and mismanagement of the Israeli Right. What seems to be happening with Yachimovich is a consolidation of the Left behind someone who could get elected. At least that is the way it seems to me.
Unless the Likud though does not heed the social protests they should have no electoral protests AND honestly the country (at least according to the papers) seems focused on the myriad of Foreign Policy issues that are arising.