Israeli New Unity Gov't - The Reactions

The other night I was able to publish a quick article regarding the Breaking News that the Israeli Government decided rather than have early elections, they would form a national unity government between the two largest parties; Likud - The party of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu which has 27 seats and Kadima - Now the party of the now Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz which has 28 seats in the Israeli Knesset (Parliment).

In that diary, there is some great discussion from some very knowledgable Kossaks about the process which I recommend reading.

Today I wanted to follow up with more analysis and discussion. PLUS I wanted to show reactions from the Israeli Opposition (Labor, Meretz, and Yair Lapid).

First a quick re-cap. Up until last night the Israeli Government was planning on dissolving itself to hold early elections on Sept. 4th 2012 (ahead of October 2013 the original date). Here was a diary I wrote about those elections which showed some information, of course given the news of the day, that diary is irrelevant BUT, some of the info. contained in it will help with some background.

OK.. so on to events of the last day and reactions.

In late meetings yesterday, Kadima - which had been the main opposition party, not too mention the largest party in the Knesset (the Israeli parliment) joined into a National Unity Government with Likud and the Government with it's huge numbers of seats in the Knesset (up to 94 out of 120) cancelled the early elections.

So what is happening?

Well reactions range from surprised to somewhat hopeful to somewhat negative. First I would like to give the reaction now from Israel's Opposition party Avodah (Labor):

"Does the truth have no value?" asked Labor Party Chair Shelly Yachimovich at a press conference Tuesday on the decision to cancel early elections and establish a wide unity government.

Yachimovich took the podium after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima Party Chairman Shaul Mofaz announced that Kadima would be joining the coalition. "Do you believe a single word they say?" Yachimovich asked. ...

...Turning to Mofaz, Yachimovich said that, unlike him, she had never called Netanyahu a liar, and that when criticizing him she had always been respectful, despite the strong ideological polarization.

Nevertheless, she said, Netanyahu was a "right-wing extremist, a capitalist, an old-school Thatcherite."

"And that's what the debate is about – two ideologies: one social-democratic and one capitalistic and violent."

Now that Kadima joined the coalition, Yachimovich's Labor which was seeing a small rennissance under her leadership is now the head of the Opposition and as she later said, she feels that's a role that Avodah can play. With the summer protests coming (and with their focus on Social and Economic Justice), Labor indeed does have an opportunity here.

In a swipe at both the new government AND Labor and Meretz. New Party Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid had this to say:

"This is the chance of a lifetime. Without understanding what they were doing, Mofaz and (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu have made us the only alternative for the sane center," the journalist-turned-politician wrote in the letter, which was published following Netanyahu and Mofaz's joint press conference.

"I know you are disappointed with the past day's developments because as citizens it pains you to see how cynicism has taken over the entire political sphere and how no one is even pretending to care. You are also disappointed because we could already taste it. We already launched our (election) campaign," Lapid wrote.

"I felt the same way for about two hours, and then I realized this was the opportunity of a lifetime. Kadima has gone back to being what it has always been – a part of Likud. Labor and Meretz are on the Left. In one day we have become the only representatives of the sane middle class," the rookie politician told his supporters.

"Twenty-eight mandates are now up for grabs in the center of the political map. They could be ours. You can also add all those who are infuriated by the old and immoral politics we have witnessed (today)."

The Pundits in Israel and the U.S. are also out in full force. Here are a few:

Bradley Burston in Haaretz writes: Netanyahu's next Israel: Bad for the Right, good for the Jews

This is no longer the elected government of Israel. This is the hand-picked junta of the state of Bullpucky. There is the defense minister whom no one in Israel will vote for, the justice minister whom no one has ever voted for, the foreign minister for whom elections have been a keep-out-of-jail card, and now Mofaz.

It was just last week that Shaul Mofaz telling everyone who would listen, that Netanyahu and Barak were unfit to run this country, inappropriate to meet its social challenges, ill-equipped to deal rationally with the one issue that consumes them, Iran.

Apparently, in exchange for a cabinet post at a time when Kadima is plummeting in polls, Mofaz now concedes that Netanyahu and Barak are at least fit to run Shaul Mofaz....

.....Keep your eye, especially, on Labor and Meretz and Hadash. And keep your eye, as well, on Rabin Square. Summer is coming in early this year. So are social justice protests. The same protests that the election campaign was meant, in part, to undercut.

Already the rallies have begun.... Speaking at a rally of 1,000 also attended by Labor and Meretz MK's Tzipi Livni (former leader of Kadima) had this to say:

During the rally, which was organized by activists affiliated with last summer's social protest, former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni said she came "at the request of these young people, who care about Israel and are willing to fight for its future, and could not tolerate this morning's turn of events.

"They deserve politics that are based on principles rather than (Knesset) seats," she said.

Haaretz editor Aluf Benn had this in his column Formation of Israeli unity cabinet shows Netanyahu blinked first, again

In the dead-of-night deal he reached with Kadima chief Shaul Mofaz, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acted exactly according to a pattern of behavior established in his current term: avoiding risks at all costs. Netanyahu preferred the 18 months of certainty a unity government provides over going to an elections, despite polls that predicted an easy win.

Netanyahu hates taking chances. He'll always prefer playing it safe and avoiding uncertain situations. As far as he's concerned, the results speak to his favor. Fact is, he's still in power, and will stay there for a long time heading an unbreakable coalition, with Tzipi Livni who used to assault him in her Knesset speeches for his "survival policy," sitting at her Tel Aviv home.

Now, Netanyahu is at his most comfortable. Instead of been dependant on the mood swings of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and the Likud's right-wing representatives, he has a coalition with two wings, between which he can maneuver. At times he'll break right, at others left, all according to the needs of the moment. He can throw a bone to Lieberman and then to Mofaz; build a settlement and evacuate illegal structures. At times he’ll indicate that war with Iran is near and at others he'll give U.S. President Barack Obama's diplomatic overtures a chance. No politician can dream up of a more perfect situation.

So.... What do we think will happen? My facebook friends in Israel are mixed. Some are positive that this will be ok and will allow Netanyahu to tack to the Center and make deals with Palestinians as well as rein in the religious. Others feel it is destruction of the democratic process where leaders from parties have let down their constituencies.

No one knows what is in store and we won't have any idea for a few months what this really will mean but, it is very interesting news.

PARTY TIME IN ISRAEL

And the election season is not just for Americans anymore. The Israelis have decided to join in the fun (and... interestingly enough so did Hamas). SO, what's ahead????

That is the $ 1,000,000 question and the answer is that no one really knows, Predicting Israeli elections and political behavior is an imperfect science at best. That said,  let's start with what seems to happening, then go into some predictions. I am willing to make some from my place of ignorance here in the U.S. And I note, I may be completely and totally wrong (it would not be the first time), I am not Israeli and all I have to go on are a few media sources and a knesset inside blog that I read regularly. BUT predicting is fun SO... here is something to chew on.

Away we go:

Netanyahu's Likud moves to dissolve Knesset ahead of early Israel elections Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset on Wednesday, as Israel's political system readies for upcoming early general elections.....
....Israel's political arena has been abuzz with the likelihood of elections being moved up from their due 2013 date, with one possible cause for holding early elections is the controversial Tal Law, which exempts ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from mandatory military service.
The law, which the High Court of Justice declared unconstitutional in February, is to expire in August, compelling the government to deal with the explosive issue.

What you may ask is the Tal Law?

In short it is:

the Tal Law was passed on July 23, 2002 in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, as a temporary law which needs to be renewed every five years. The bill enables a continuation of the exempts to yeshiva students subject to the detailed conditions within the bill. According to the law, at the age of 22, yeshiva students are provided with a decision year and can choose between one-year civil service alongside a paying job or a shortened 16-month military service and future service in the reserves as an alternative to continuing to study. Five motions against the law were filed with the High Court of Justice claiming it violates the principle of equality. In 2005, the state admitted in a response to a Supreme Court petition, that the Tal Law had failed to change enlistment arrangements for ultra-Orthodox Jews, as only a few dozen had enlisted to the army as a result of it. The law was extended in 2007 by another five years. On February 21, 2012, the High Court of Justice ruled that the law is unconstitutional.

And what is the controversy? Well, many in Israel at this time feel that it is blatantly unfair that Yeshiva students can skip national service while all other Jewish citizens have to go into the Israeli Defense Forces.
This howeve, to me, is indicative of a larger problem that Israelis need and want to address, that is the issue of national character. As a young nation, Israel still seems to be finding and defining it's "being". There are many issues (the Occupation, Growing Economic inequality, poor civil defense readiness, Foreign Policy as related to the changing Middle East - particularly Egypt, natural gas and energy, water resources... to name just a few) but, one issue that is key to the very nature of the State is the division between religious and secular Israelis and the fight between the two to define the character of the State.

Currently, the coalition run by the Likud Party is beholden to hard Right nationalist and religious interests (due to the nature of Israeli coalition politics). Anything and everything that gets done has to run through this filter. Personally, I think the government wants to get away from this and rule from a more secular perspective (than currently exists) along with a more nationalist bent towards security.
The Prime Ministers party (Likud) currently enjoys wide public support (well as wide as is possible in Israel), and with the emergence of former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz to the leadership of Kadima, along with the resignation of Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni from the Knesset, I think the PM senses that NOW is a good time to change directions while he maintains the Prime Ministry.

Why do I say that... Well here are a few polls:

The Globes Poll

Current Knesset seats in [brackets] 31 [27] Likud
15 [08] Labor
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [28] Kadima
11 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home
03 [03] Meretz
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

The Dahaf Poll

31 [27] Likud
17 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [28] Kadima
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
04 [03] Meretz
02 [03] Jewish Home
02 [--] Deri
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

The Dahaf / Yediot Ahronot Poll with two extra scenarios

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [27] Likud
18 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [28] Kadima
11 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
03 [--] Deri
02 [04] National Union
02 [03] Jewish Home
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence Option #1 If Deri runs as leader of Shas: Likud 29, Labor 18, Y.B. 13, Yesh Atid 12, Shas 11, Kadima 10
Option #2 If Livni runs as Lapid’s #2: Likud 29, Yesh Atid 16, Labor 14, Y.B. 13 and Kadima 9

With these three polls one can see that Likud seems to have the upper hand in all outcomes, but what is interesting is the nature of the coalition it can build. So without further ado... Here is my thinking on the future coalition process... and one note - despite objections from Likud, I do think that Defense Minister Barak's party will fold into Likud:

1. Option One (what I believe is most likely to happen): Likud wins (30 seats), and forms a National Coalition with Shas (7 Seats), Kadima (11 seats), Yesh Atid (11 Seats), and possibly Yisrael Beitanu (13 Seats). Barak gets tossed, Mofaz (Kadima) gets back the Defense Portfolio, Lieberman maintains the Foreign Ministry, and Lapid gets some kind of Economic Ministry. This would give the Government 72 Seats (a strong majority) or thereabouts. As for the Occupation... they would probably enact Netanyahu's vision (which is similar to the Mofaz / Kadima plan but with less territorial "giveaways" AND with no division of Jerusalem.

2. Option Two (it could happen): Likud wins (30 Seats), forms a National Coalition with YB (13-15 Seats), Kadima (11 Seats), Shas under Yishai (7 Seats), and maybe UTJ (who seeing where the wind is blowing trades IDF service for some major religious concessions somewhere else). Barak gets the Boot from the DM (again given to Mofaz) and Lieberman remains as FM. This would pretty much keep things the same as they are now with Likud having between 63-69 seats. Not as comfortable a majority but enough of one to keep the Haredi in check. One way Netanyahu shores up his majority would also be to include the National Union (which would be a DISASTER! but would fulfill certain messianic members of his government with great joy.

3. Option Three (what I would like to happen and probably has as much chance of happening as Leprechauns and Unicorns leaping out of my rear end and handing me Gold and Wishes): Likud wins 30 seats and CANNOT form a government. Yachimovich and Labor get the call. Giving the Government the following: Labor (18 seats), A Deri run Shas joins in (11 Seats), Yesh Atid with Livni comes over (16 seats), Meretz joins (4 Seats), and Kadima (13 Seats) make up the coalition with a bare majority of 62 seats. Seeing the way the wind is blowing perhaps Hadash also votes with the "New Alignment" on major bills. Mofaz gets Defense, Livni gets the Foreign Ministry, Lapid gets an Economic Post (which would put him in direct conflict with Yachimovich who Lapid has said is too far Left, but for the purposes of this - I could care less).

4. Option Four (what I call the "sell-out" option). Likud wins (30 Seats), gets Labor into the government on a National Portfolio Ministry (18 Seats), Yesh Atid - for the Foreign Ministry (12 seats) and Kadima comes in in Defense (11 Seats) . This would give the Government 71 seats or thereabouts and has as much chance of happening me being elected President of the U.S. in early elections this year, but there is a certain amount of sense behind it. Of course then, it might mean that a good portion of Likud would bolt the party to work with a more Rightist party like YB (which would then collapse the government) in response to teaming up with Labor.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Probably nothing like what I am predicting will happen but hey at least I am putting it out there.

As for the Occupation, and it's end... I think the "best case" scenario would be if Option # 3 gets to happen and that they would revive the Olmert Plan from 2008 (the plan that was in the Palestine Papers).
Anyway, given the news and the polls - what are your thoughts?

Tzipi Livni Speaks Out

Today's Haaretz has a fascinating interview with Kadima leader Tzipi Livni. The questions are direct, the answers seem very straightforward. I recommend reading it here:

Will there be a next time

Some of the highlights include an in depth discussion regarding the The Peace Process, the relationship with the P.A. and an entire view of the Settlement Issue.

Here are a few quick comments:

Haaretz Commentary: ....He’s a partner,” (Abbas) she says, releasing a cloud of smoke in the living room. They met a few months ago in Jordan, and Livni took Haim Ramon, Tzachi Hanegbi and Roni Bar-On with her. They talked for three hours. “Tzachi and Roni emerged with the realization that we’re missing a historic opportunity here,” she says.

That was Livni’s first meeting with Abbas since becoming leader of the opposition. “I thought it was undemocratic to meet with him. A government was elected and I won’t conduct parallel negotiations,” she says.

Q: So why now?

L: “There have been no negotiations for a long time, and he’s accused of not wanting them. I wanted to see for myself what the real situation was, because it’s possible that a few months from now it will already be impossible to solve the conflict. Before the meeting I informed Netanyahu and I contacted him afterward too. I told him that if he would release the people imprisoned before the Oslo Accords, Abu Mazen [Abbas] would return to the negotiating table. Netanyahu refused.”

Q: Does Abbas want to reach an agreement?

L: “I think so.”

Q: Had you been elected prime minister in March 2009, what would you have done about the diplomatic issue? What have we lost in these three years?

L: “An agreement.”

Q: A final status agreement?

L: “A final status agreement. I believe it would have been possible.”

WOW... Powerful stuff. Certainly there is a difference between what Livni and Netanyahu are seeing.

Some other items.....

Q: You meet with Benjamin Netanyahu regularly for personal updates. Is his comparison between [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad and Adolf Hitler, between the Holocaust and Iran, a manipulation for public relations purposes?

L:“No.”

Q: Does he really believe that Hitler is sitting there in Tehran and planning another Holocaust? Is it profound and authentic for him?

L: “I think so. Absurdly, Netanyahu and another group that’s with him are turning the State of Israel into a collective, larger ghetto, out of a Jewish fear of a Holocaust. Netanyahu’s perception of the threats is that of a small country surrounded by enemies, and that’s become an ideology that may be politically advantageous. One day as he stood on the dais he made a statement that really made me angry: “What is happening to us, the isolation of the State of Israel, is not because of what we say or do, but because of what we are.”

Q: Classic victimhood.

L: “Exactly. It makes no difference what I do, the only thing left to us is to gather together, preferably in a shelter, and wait until the danger subsides. What I consider dangerous is that it leads to fear of the ‘other’ among us, draft bills that undermine equality and minority rights, that silence people. He recently said that the newspaper you write for is an existential threat to the State of Israel. Haaretz and The New York Times. Haaretz and its six readers. The problem is that those six readers are English-speaking readers, and that’s why it bothers Netanyahu. Israel is now ruled by the most right-wing and weakest government in its history, because we have no legitimacy to act. The Churchillian thing to do would be to try to reach an agreement related to the Israeli concept of security. Netanyahu sees that as something Chamberlain would do, an act of surrender. He sees an agreement as surrender.”

Q: What do you think of the Netanyahus’ attempt to control the media?

L: “He believed that his downfall during his first round as prime minister was related not to his actions or his character, but to media criticism. That’s why he came to power with the intention of controlling the media. And that was done in several ways: One is Israel Hayom. The same person [Sheldon Adelson] who now distributes the freebie newspaper that reflects the prime minister’s agenda and exalts his name, is also trying to ensure that the person Netanyahu thinks he can get along with [Newt Gingrich] will be elected president of the United States.”

As I said very interesting stuff. Please read the whole article at Haaretz (link at the top) it is very, very interesting.

Avodah Rising - Maybe.....

Yesterday was the first round of new elections for the leadership of Avodah (Israel's Labor Party), and while there are no results to publish Haaretz, ran a poll of Israeli voters and the results are surprising.

From Haaretz:

Less than a day after the first round of voting in the Labor Party’s election for a new leader, it seems that there is still life in the once-powerful party, which had been written off after years of in-fighting and an ever diminishing parliamentary presence.

Based on the results of a Haaretz poll conducted Tuesday night in conjunction with Dialog, if nationwide elections were held today, a Labor party led by journalist-turned-politician Shelly Yachimovich would win 22 out of the Knesset's 120 parliamentary seats. Were Labor headed by Yachimovich’s key rival Amir Peretz, the former party leader who resigned after the Second Lebanon War, it would win 18 seats in a general election held today.

This is a significant jump from the 13 seats Labor secured in the last elections, of which it only now has eight, after Ehud Barak jumped ship in January to form the Independence party, taking his cabal of four MKs with him. Apparently, this is the first instance of a leader rehabilitating a political party by leaving it.

Previous polls had suggested that Avodah would slightly gain strength in the coming elections but to suggest 22 Seats... that is quite the gain. Most of this gain as the article suggests would be at the expense of Kadima (a party created mainly to shore up Ariel Sharon and his bid to withdraw from Gaza) which had included Avodah in coalition had moved from being a Likud knockoff to something more Centrist.

Labors demise had been a long time in the making and seemed to culminate in the fourth place finish in the 2009 election where under the leadership of Ehud Barak they finished with 13 seats in the Knesset. Since that time they were reduced to 8 seats with the defection of Barak and four MK's when they left and formed Atz'maout. However, since then particularly with the Yachminovich's candidacy Avodah has been gaining strength.

One question I would have regarding the Haaretz poll is this:

With Yachimovich at the helm, Kadima would lose six of its 28 seats to Labor; with Peretz in charge, Labor would take four of Kadima’s seats.

So if (as the article states) Labor would have 22 seats where do the other eight seats come from? Right now the math works this way.. Labor has 8 seats. They pick up 6 seats from Kadima which would take them to 14 seats. So where are the other eight coming from. Meretz? Atz'maout? YB? Likud?

The next question I would ask is that if this is tied to the economic protests of the summer. I do know that Yachimovich was looking hawkish on security but reaching out to the protestors economic and social concerns. I am wondering if that blend of leftist economics and centerist/rightist security advocacy fits in with the way Israelis are thinking.

A favorite site of mine for Israeli Polling data is Jeremy's Daily Knesset Blog. Jeremy tracks polling from a number of different sources. I am looking forward to seeing the whole poll here but in his last two polls he shows the Right Gaining although he also show Labor picking up seats. One part of his poll shows the tent protestors or Yair Lapid getting up to 20 seats should they run... With Yachimovich at the helm of Labor I wonder if that would still be the case (I highly doubt it). But in any case read the site. It has all of the happenings in the Knesset and so forth.

With all the goings on in the area this is an "under the radar" story that could be important. I think it is well worth checking out.

Shalom!