That is the $ 1,000,000 question and the answer is that no one really knows, Predicting Israeli elections and political behavior is an imperfect science at best. That said, let's start with what seems to happening, then go into some predictions. I am willing to make some from my place of ignorance here in the U.S. And I note, I may be completely and totally wrong (it would not be the first time), I am not Israeli and all I have to go on are a few media sources and a knesset inside blog that I read regularly. BUT predicting is fun SO... here is something to chew on.
Away we go:
Netanyahu's Likud moves to dissolve Knesset ahead of early Israel elections Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset on Wednesday, as Israel's political system readies for upcoming early general elections.....What you may ask is the Tal Law?
....Israel's political arena has been abuzz with the likelihood of elections being moved up from their due 2013 date, with one possible cause for holding early elections is the controversial Tal Law, which exempts ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from mandatory military service.
The law, which the High Court of Justice declared unconstitutional in February, is to expire in August, compelling the government to deal with the explosive issue.
In short it is:
the Tal Law was passed on July 23, 2002 in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, as a temporary law which needs to be renewed every five years. The bill enables a continuation of the exempts to yeshiva students subject to the detailed conditions within the bill. According to the law, at the age of 22, yeshiva students are provided with a decision year and can choose between one-year civil service alongside a paying job or a shortened 16-month military service and future service in the reserves as an alternative to continuing to study. Five motions against the law were filed with the High Court of Justice claiming it violates the principle of equality. In 2005, the state admitted in a response to a Supreme Court petition, that the Tal Law had failed to change enlistment arrangements for ultra-Orthodox Jews, as only a few dozen had enlisted to the army as a result of it. The law was extended in 2007 by another five years. On February 21, 2012, the High Court of Justice ruled that the law is unconstitutional.And what is the controversy? Well, many in Israel at this time feel that it is blatantly unfair that Yeshiva students can skip national service while all other Jewish citizens have to go into the Israeli Defense Forces.
This howeve, to me, is indicative of a larger problem that Israelis need and want to address, that is the issue of national character. As a young nation, Israel still seems to be finding and defining it's "being". There are many issues (the Occupation, Growing Economic inequality, poor civil defense readiness, Foreign Policy as related to the changing Middle East - particularly Egypt, natural gas and energy, water resources... to name just a few) but, one issue that is key to the very nature of the State is the division between religious and secular Israelis and the fight between the two to define the character of the State.
Currently, the coalition run by the Likud Party is beholden to hard Right nationalist and religious interests (due to the nature of Israeli coalition politics). Anything and everything that gets done has to run through this filter. Personally, I think the government wants to get away from this and rule from a more secular perspective (than currently exists) along with a more nationalist bent towards security.
The Prime Ministers party (Likud) currently enjoys wide public support (well as wide as is possible in Israel), and with the emergence of former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz to the leadership of Kadima, along with the resignation of Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni from the Knesset, I think the PM senses that NOW is a good time to change directions while he maintains the Prime Ministry.
Why do I say that... Well here are a few polls:
The Globes Poll
Current Knesset seats in [brackets] 31 [27] LikudThe Dahaf Poll
15 [08] Labor
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [28] Kadima
11 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home
03 [03] Meretz
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence
31 [27] LikudThe Dahaf / Yediot Ahronot Poll with two extra scenarios
17 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [28] Kadima
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
04 [03] Meretz
02 [03] Jewish Home
02 [--] Deri
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]With these three polls one can see that Likud seems to have the upper hand in all outcomes, but what is interesting is the nature of the coalition it can build. So without further ado... Here is my thinking on the future coalition process... and one note - despite objections from Likud, I do think that Defense Minister Barak's party will fold into Likud:
30 [27] Likud
18 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [28] Kadima
11 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
03 [--] Deri
02 [04] National Union
02 [03] Jewish Home
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence Option #1 If Deri runs as leader of Shas: Likud 29, Labor 18, Y.B. 13, Yesh Atid 12, Shas 11, Kadima 10
Option #2 If Livni runs as Lapid’s #2: Likud 29, Yesh Atid 16, Labor 14, Y.B. 13 and Kadima 9
1. Option One (what I believe is most likely to happen): Likud wins (30 seats), and forms a National Coalition with Shas (7 Seats), Kadima (11 seats), Yesh Atid (11 Seats), and possibly Yisrael Beitanu (13 Seats). Barak gets tossed, Mofaz (Kadima) gets back the Defense Portfolio, Lieberman maintains the Foreign Ministry, and Lapid gets some kind of Economic Ministry. This would give the Government 72 Seats (a strong majority) or thereabouts. As for the Occupation... they would probably enact Netanyahu's vision (which is similar to the Mofaz / Kadima plan but with less territorial "giveaways" AND with no division of Jerusalem.
2. Option Two (it could happen): Likud wins (30 Seats), forms a National Coalition with YB (13-15 Seats), Kadima (11 Seats), Shas under Yishai (7 Seats), and maybe UTJ (who seeing where the wind is blowing trades IDF service for some major religious concessions somewhere else). Barak gets the Boot from the DM (again given to Mofaz) and Lieberman remains as FM. This would pretty much keep things the same as they are now with Likud having between 63-69 seats. Not as comfortable a majority but enough of one to keep the Haredi in check. One way Netanyahu shores up his majority would also be to include the National Union (which would be a DISASTER! but would fulfill certain messianic members of his government with great joy.
3. Option Three (what I would like to happen and probably has as much chance of happening as Leprechauns and Unicorns leaping out of my rear end and handing me Gold and Wishes): Likud wins 30 seats and CANNOT form a government. Yachimovich and Labor get the call. Giving the Government the following: Labor (18 seats), A Deri run Shas joins in (11 Seats), Yesh Atid with Livni comes over (16 seats), Meretz joins (4 Seats), and Kadima (13 Seats) make up the coalition with a bare majority of 62 seats. Seeing the way the wind is blowing perhaps Hadash also votes with the "New Alignment" on major bills. Mofaz gets Defense, Livni gets the Foreign Ministry, Lapid gets an Economic Post (which would put him in direct conflict with Yachimovich who Lapid has said is too far Left, but for the purposes of this - I could care less).
4. Option Four (what I call the "sell-out" option). Likud wins (30 Seats), gets Labor into the government on a National Portfolio Ministry (18 Seats), Yesh Atid - for the Foreign Ministry (12 seats) and Kadima comes in in Defense (11 Seats) . This would give the Government 71 seats or thereabouts and has as much chance of happening me being elected President of the U.S. in early elections this year, but there is a certain amount of sense behind it. Of course then, it might mean that a good portion of Likud would bolt the party to work with a more Rightist party like YB (which would then collapse the government) in response to teaming up with Labor.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Probably nothing like what I am predicting will happen but hey at least I am putting it out there.
As for the Occupation, and it's end... I think the "best case" scenario would be if Option # 3 gets to happen and that they would revive the Olmert Plan from 2008 (the plan that was in the Palestine Papers).
Anyway, given the news and the polls - what are your thoughts?
If your dream scenario occurred, Israel would be going to new elections within in a year unless some sort of New Alignment could be formalized.
ReplyDeleteYep... I realize that as well... As I said, it was as likely as unicorns and Leprechauns leaping out of my ass. It won't happen, but a person can dream.....
ReplyDeleteI think Option One is what happens. What do you think about that?
(livosh1)
ReplyDeleteWell forgive me for being a Debbie Downer, but I can find no enjoyment in thinking about the likely outcomes of the Israeli elections, as I see virtually no chance of it resulting in a government that truly desires an equitable resolution to the I-P conflict. I realize that some Israel haters and their useful tools cheered when Krugman spoke out on the issue, and I don't want what I am about to say to in any way be interpreted as agreement with their cheerleading, but I do think that Krugman has a point when he said that the Israeli government's policies are "basically a gradual, long-run form of national suicide — and that’s bad for Jews everywhere, not to mention the world." Yeah . . I know . . . it takes two to tango, but until the Israeli government comes to the conclusion that nothing will change unless it changes first, the dreadful circumstances will continue . . . and only get worse.
Well "Debbie Downer" ;-) You will be waiting a long time before EITHER side really works towards an equitable solution on this issue. The Palestinians certainly aren't rushing to find any solutions that don't call for the destruction of Israel, and Israel certainly isn't rushing to find a solution that would end the conflict permanently.
ReplyDeleteI will say, that it looks like Yair Lapid is going to ressurect the Olmert plan from 2008 which is not a bad idea. BUT, until the Palestinians seriously come to the table I don't see how any concessions (particularly around J'slem) will get any traction.
I will agree with you regarding Krugman - he is right, and yes, unless the Israelis work out some kind of Peace Plan with the Palestinians they are dancing with a powder keg in the long term.
Israel though has a lot to go through on reforming it's own internal systems first. They have to get a stable energy policy going. They have to resolve their issues between Secular and Ultra Religious. They have to work on their water situation. All of this has to be resolved if they are to last a long time. I think that is what this election is going to be about... Where does Israel see itself in the future.
That is just my take.