Now the Hard Part begins....

As the President's trip to Israel winds down, and as Secretary Kerry gets ready to return to the area (he is supposed to return within 24 hours) to get serious about both security coordination with Israel with regards to Iran, Syria and Lebanon... the Secretary will also presumably be trying to jump start Peace Negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians.

This is where it gets difficult because to fulfill the Presidents vision of a viable Two State Solution he will have to work through some very tough forces against him.

From the Palestinian side you have The Salafists (who as a greeting to the President launched five Qassam Rockets) into Southern Israel.and who had this to say:

“The American president came here to divide Palestinians,” Sa’id Qasrawi, the spokesman of the Islamic bloc at Bir Zeit University, said. “He said there can be no peace with Hamas, and that he cannot support the Palestinian Authority while Hamas is present. We say: There can be no peace while the usurper entity Israel is present. We are the true owners of the land, and the Zionists must leave the land to its authentic owners.”

and:

The small Salafi group called Magles Shoura al-Mujahddin said in an Internet statement that it fired the rockets to show that Israeli air defenses could not stop attacks on the Jewish state during the visit.  ...

...."Responding to the bragging of the Roman dog and the war criminals of their so-called Iron Dome, we assert that all their military techniques will not stop God's destiny of tormenting them," the statement, posted on the Ansar al-Mujahideen website, which is used by Islamist terrorists, said.

As well as radicals in the Young radicalized Palestinian population who said:

At eleven o’clock, as a black helicopter began its descent, the demonstrators started marching toward the presidential palace, the Muqata. Now, it was the youth who were leading the chants, which were quickly becoming more fiery.

<em>“The people want RPGs, not [security] coordination and the CIA,” shouted one man. A young woman, unscarved and wearing tight jeans, cried out “no way to peaceful [resistance], only bullets and missiles.”</em>

 But these folks are not the only resistance to the Two State Solution stressed by the President.

Here is Deputy Defense Minister Naftali Bennett and Knesset Member Ayalet Shaked of HaBayit HaYehudi:

Here is Bennett:

<em>"The time has come for a shred of creativity and innovation in solving the conflict in the Middle East," Bennett said, challenging the wide acceptance of the two-state solution.

"Generally," the new minister added, "there is no occupation within one's own land."</em>

and Shaked:

<em>Knesset Member Ayalet Shaked, also from Habayit Hayehudi, said "Obama is a true friend of Israel, on this no one can argue. But at the end of the day, we are the ones who have to deal with the tragic and devastating consequences that are part of the establishment of a Palestinian state. <strong>That is the reason that just this week, the people selected a government that has no place for a two-state solution within its foundation.</strong>And if we are talking about Iron Dome, then the West Bank is our Iron Dome."</em>

There will certainly be more lunacy from both sides, as the various blogospheres collect and analyze the Presidents speech.  

Still, these two points (the Palestinian One State Solution folks and the Israeli One State solution folks) of view will make the Presidents vision that much more difficult to attain. Particularly as Hamas and the Salafist groups gain popularity in the West Bank and within the Palestinian polity as well, AND the Israeli government that is represented across almost all of it's Security or National Security areas by those who directly and outwardly oppose the Two State Solution. 

As I have written elsewhere on this blog that I think The Two State Solution is eventually going to happen, I think it is important we work towards this goal to avoid the bloodshed that will force this situation. 

I am curious to see what our  policies going forward will be but, even while I foresee American reticence to support the Israeli settlement enterprise in the Occupied Territories of the West Bank, I also foresee America's push against Palestinian radicalism and jihadi sympathies. 

Okie, Dokie... There is now a government in place.. What's on the Agenda?

Okie dokie... So now that the Israeli government is in place... What's going to be the agenda going forward particularly with regards to visit from President Obama, just a few short days away?

Well, we know that there is supposed to be a bill on a National Service Law within 45 days presented by Yesh Atid. Presumably this bill was part of the coalition deal that was signed by all of the parties, and that since the Haredi parties were/are not part of this coalition, this deal should most likely go through. However, 45 days in Israeli (or anyones politics) are a lifetime, so this one should pass unless something should unravel.

We also know that the threshold for new parties to enter Knesset (in the next election) will most likely be raised from 2-4%, which would cut out a number of smaller parties and would push voters into larger blocs.

And we also know that the number of ministerial positions will eventually be cut to 18. There are 21 ministers in the present government (down by a 1/3), but this is a change that will streamline the government and is part of Yesh Atid's platform of making the cumbersome Israeli government more efficient.

Here is what we don't know... We don't know what the socio-economic picture of Israel is going to look like as it is tied into a number of factors. PM Netanyahu promised reforms and however he has financial neophyte (by his own admission) Yair Lapid will be running finance. At the same time we have Naftali Bennett serving as head of the Socio-Economic committee of the Knesset. As Ynet reports

Bennett will also serve as chairman of a subcommittee of the Social-Economic Cabinet for standard of living affairs, economic concentration and competitiveness. "The committee will be established within 30 days after the government's establishment," the agreement states.

Bennett will serve as a member of the ministerial committee for privatization affairs and as the acting committee chairman....

Now here is Jewish Home's national economic ideas because from what I have seen they don't really have a "plan"... but they do have something that sounds a lot like the Republican program of "Compassionate Conservatism" (we all know how well that worked out): From the HaBayit HaYehudi website:

Free economy with compassion

---

The State of Israel is a remarkable economic success. However, s large part of the population has missed out on the fruits of this prosperity. We will act to provide equal opportunity that will allow every young person in Israel a chance to succeed. We are committed to improving education, increasing competition, breaking up monopolies and wherever possible, cutting taxes for Israel’s middle classes. Israel must provide a safety net allowing a decent standard of living for those, and only those, who are unable to provide for themselves.

Two things here:

1. As we in the U.S. know cutting taxes without curtailing government spending (BUSH) leads to serious fiscal issues. HaBayit HaYehudi (and their rightist allies in Likud-Betainu) are completely committed to the settling the West Bank. While Likud-Betainu seems to actually have no set position on anything (aside from making their corporate sponsors wealthier), HaBayit HaYehudi is very much interested in not only stepping up the settlement process but in actually annexing the entire West Bank (see their website for details). So the question becomes, IF they are going to CUT taxes, how are they going to pay for their annexation plans.

Keep in mind the U.S. and the European Union (Israel's main financial backers) are very much against this policy and the E.U. has gone so far as to discuss (though not approve) of sanctions. Now Rightist supporters of Israel say they can "go it alone". I would say to them... Really? You think? I don't see that at all. If Europe or the U.S. took economic action, it would severely hurt the nation.

Of course I am not suggesting that Israel should not try to maintain an independent outlook and put sole responsibility for it's security in the hands of others, but, I do think they have to be cognizant of what the economic reality of the nation's actions.

2. The second concerns are energy and water. The Israelis have done a great job in the Water department even in the face of increasing shortages through desalinization effort. But what about energy? Israel right now has two main sources one of which runs through the Sinai, now controlled by the Egyptian fundamentalist group the Muslim Brotherhood. So far, the Egyptians have been abiding by their treaty with Israel (thanks to active U.S. lobbying and assistance), but that could change with annexation, which would surely also re-ignite tension on the Southern Border.

This would leave the Leviathan fields open but those have yet to be developed so energy / revenue from their would be problematic until everything was fully operational. SO... how will this work. Israelis and supporters of Israel need to be asking these questions.

Finally, we come to the situation in the Occupied Territories and governance. Tzipi Livni, who signed onto the coalition over a month ago signed on with the guarantee that she would be Justice Minister AND that she would be in charge of negotiations with the Palestinians answerable only to PM Netanyahu. Everyone who knows anything about Livni knows that she has been an outspoken advocate of the Two State Solution. NOW, in this government it looks like she is going to lose that second part of her position (but, maintaining the Justice Ministry).

The agreement also states that Bennett will be part of a ministerial team established to promote the peace process with the Palestinians, which will be headed by Netanyahu alongside Justice Minister-designate Tzipi Livni, Defense Minister-designate Moshe Yaalon, Finance Minister-designate Yair Lapid and the foreign minister.

Why do I say this? Because, neither Lapid nor Bennett actually agreed to have Livni in that position and now with them in that team they can scuttle any real Two State talks that come up  Remember, Bennett favors annexation, and Ya'alon is not far behind there. SO.. how does the coalition keep it's promise to HaTanuah? My feeling is that they don't. But then again, Livni and HaTanuah were doomed from the start the second they signed that deal. They should have seen this coming and they didn't, so Bibi can chalk another "political kill" (Barak, Mofaz, and Livni) to his belt (I still think Lapid is next).

These are the things that Israelis should be asking about and what the government SHOULD be concerned with, not, with who gets the title of "Deputy Prime Minister" which in reality is the same as being called "Deputy Dog". Personally, I am not so sure exactly how this government will last but one never knows. My bet is that we see elections within 12 months though many people are predicting 18 months..

Shalom.

Let's Make a Deal Israeli Style Part II - The Deal is Done

The other day I posted a story about Israel's impending coalition deal. Apparently, now it is done and Yesh Atid "won" the negotiations (although I still don't trust that Yair Lapid will be able to overcome the "Netanyahu Effect" once he is in office). Still... there is now a government in place. As posted at the Times of Israel:  Israel’s next government agreed: 4 parties, 68 members

The necessary legal documents were to be drawn up and signed Thursday, leaving Netanyahu free to formally inform President Shimon Peres on Saturday night — the final day of the six weeks allocated to him — that he has mustered a Knesset majority. The coalition will comprise four parties: Likud-Beytenu (31 seats), Yesh Atid (19), Jewish Home (12) and Hatnua (6), for a total of 68 members in the 120-seat Knesset.....

..Along with Piron at education, Lapid himself is set to serve as finance minister, and Yesh Atid will likely have three other ministers in a cabinet of 21-22 members. Bennett will be minister of economics and trade, and his Jewish Home party will have two more ministers, one of whom is likely to be Uri Ariel at Housing.

Bennett reportedly told Lapid that if he didn’t accept Netanyahu’s compromise offer, Jewish Home would sign a coalition deal without Yesh Atid

Also according to the TOI, Shas is also talking about joining the coalition. I am not sure how that will work since Shas would have absolutely no influence on anything and would be in constant conflict with Yesh Atid and to a degree with HaBayit HaYehudi, who are both seeking for strong reformation of the countries National Service Laws. But hey, if Eli Yishai thinks he can add to the equation or even effectively blunt what Y.A. and H.H. are saying then "more power to him" (though I don't think he can or frankly should be added).

One surprise for me is that apparently HaTanuah gets to keep their second post, the Environmental Ministry. Of course, Livni won't get a role that she wanted in leading Peace talks but it's hard to see that she even believed that she would given the make up of the ruling coalition.

As the dust settles and a HUGE internal fight within Likud, particularly between the newer, harder Rightist MK's and the old guard more moderate MK's we seem to be looking at this break down of ministries. Jeremy's Knesset Blog has a list of the probable Ministers so far:

Report: Probable look at Netanyahu government and his 21 ministers.

Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) Prime Minister , Minister of Foreign Affairs
Moshe Ya`alon (Likud) Vice Prime Minister, Minister of Defense
Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) Vice Prime Minister, Minister of Finance
Naftali Bennett (Bayit Yehudi) Vice Prime Minister, Minister of Economy, Industry, Trade, and Labor, Minister of Religious Services, Minister of Diaspora Affairs and Jerusalem
Tzipi Livni (Livni Party) Minister of Justice
Gideon Sa`ar (Likud) Minister of Internal Affairs
Shai Piron (Yesh Atid) Minister of Education
Yitzhak Aharonovitch (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Internal Security
Uri Ariel (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Housing and Construction
Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid) Minister of Health
Uzi Landau (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Tourism
Yisrael Katz (Likud) Minister of Transportation, National Infrastructure, and Road Safety
Yair Shamir (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development
Yael German (Yesh Atid) Minister of Welfare and Social Services
Yaakov Perry (Yesh Atid) Minister of Science and Technology
Uri Orbach (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Culture and Sport
Amir Peretz (Livni Party) Minister of Environmental Protection
Sofa Landver (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Immigrant Absorption

Likud Ministers Erdan, Livnat, Shalom and Steinitz are expected to fight over these 4 portfolios:

Minister of Communications
Minister of Energy and Water
Minister of the Development of the Negev and Galil
Minister of Home Front Defence

Some interesting things here... The Right is fully in fully charge of International Affairs. Starting with the Foreign Ministry which apparently will be overseen by PM Netanyahu who is holding place for Avigdor Lieberman (until his legal troubles settle). Then you have Bennett controlling Diaspora Affairs and Jerusalem NOT to mention trade. You have YB in charge of Tourism and Immigrant Absorption.

At the same time the Center (Yesh Atid, and HaTanuah) have the more socially oriented Ministries

One other interesting thing to me (as a former athlete) is that YB gets Culture and Sports. This is important in the face of on-coming boycotts of Israel that are sure to exacerbated by HaBayit HaYehudi's and Rightist Likud Betainu's continuing push for a One State solution.

In the my last article I mentioned that the big winner was Naftali Bennet. This confirms it. Apparently he was the "lynchpin" in pulling together the Coalition deal. But also, he got the ministries and positions that he wanted. HaBayit Hayehudi and the Right are going to control the culture of Israel at least in this government.

So now I am going to wonder at how the moderates in Yesh Atid are going to play this one. They got what they wanted so they really can't complain, but, what happens when the issues around the Occupation and the budget needs for energy and resources start running into trouble due to Rightist actions.

This will be very interesting going forward.

.

Let's Make a Deal - Israeli Style

Hat Tip here to charliehall2, who over at Daily Kos, called this one. I argued with him and he was right... Give credit where credit is due (not that he will ever see this, but, still I think it important to give him the credit he deserves for being right).  

Well it looks like coalition talks are all but done. The details are still emerging and Haaretz has a great liveblog going regarding negotiations.

It seems that there was some dealing to get Yesh Atid to move off the Education portfolio (which Lapid really wanted) but, in return they get the Finance Ministry and a lot of extra social program spending. Also, Yesh Atid got their demand for a more "efficient" government which in it's own right caused a bit of a stir with long time Likud MK's.

So with this new coalition... who loses? By far and away the biggest loser is HaTanuah and Tzipi Livni even more than the Haredi Parties who were courted, then shunned, then courted again, then unceremoniously dumped, only to be courted slightly and left out completely in the end.

How did Livni lose? In her anxiousness to get a ministerial position she sold herself and those that believed in her, completely out. She rushed to join the PM in coalition at the slightest promise from PM Netanyahu, who said he would give her the Justice Ministry, plus her party would get the Environmental Portfolio AND the leadership of the Knesset House Committee. Oh and she got promised to be the lead negotiator policy formulator for talks with the Palestinians answerable only to the Prime Minister. Livni ran on a campaign that was critical of the Occupation and Pro-Two States, so those positions would make sense. The only problem is that everyone else involved in the coalition is not on board with any of it.

At first it looked liked Livni might actually play a role in this important issue. Following the election PM Netanyahu made a speech re-committing himself and Israel to Bar-Ilan. But speeches are just that... words. Immediately the #4 on the Likud-Beitanu list Yair Shamir said that Two States was not going to happen and that the PM's speech meant little as it did not represent the positions of Likud-Betainu. Then Netanyahu himself stood in support of some the Rightists in his party when they said, no positions could be discussed without a referendum within the government, thus limiting Livni's power here.

ALSO, Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett said that they didn't even want Livni in any role that had to do with the Palestinians. They simply wouldn't accept it. The PM so far has not exactly risen to support his first coalition partner. But then to add insult to injury, (and because of Yesh Atid's demand for a "leaner" government), it appears that the PM is going to renege on his promise of the Environmental Portfolio and give that to a long time Likud MK while dismissing HaTanuah to a secondary role.

Oh well.. there goes Tzipi. She sold herself, her six seats and those that voted for her, completely "up the river with no paddle". Also, on that front, news from today has Naftali Bennett setting forth to complete his promise of guaranteeing that the government Annex Area C and work their way towards the One State Solution saying:

Habayit Hayehudi officials stress that they will not allow a settlement freeze as part of trust-building measures that the next government will make as a gesture to the Palestinians. "Habayit Hayehudi is entering the coalition in order to be part of it, not to leave it within weeks," said a senior official in the party. "Everyone knows that we will not allow a freeze on settlement construction. The freeze was never a precondition to talks – except for the one-time move Netanyahu carried out." 

"Instead of freezing construction, the government can work to release prisoners or transfer funds to the Palestinian Authority. We will not dismantle the government over such steps," he said.

But Tzipi can be happy, even though they are taking away one of her parties ministerial posts (Environment) they will get a deputy Ministerial post for their trouble. Oh yay!

Poor Kadima even faired worse. After Shaul Mofaz completed the complete self destruction of Kadima when he joined the government and then got absolutely nothing for his efforts except for him moving OUT of the government but wrecking any credibility or shred of self respect he may have had. Instead he went big and paid the price of having the once largest party in Israel become the smallest party in the Knesset. Still, he thought he could make a deal to support the coalition even being talked to about a ministerial position.

Alas, like his former Kadima compatriot Livni, Mofaz was also "tossed to the curb":

Likud officials said it appears Kadima head Shaul Mofaz will not be appointed a minister in the third Netanyahu government. According to one official, "Kadima has only two MKs, which doesn't reach the new quota required for appointing ministers to the government. I don't see how Mofaz can be appointed a minister in the upcoming government.

 And there goes that.

So who will get the "hose" next. My bet... Yesh Atid. They got some of the Ministerial portfolio's they wanted (but not the big two Foreign Minister, and Education that they wanted),  BUT they are going to have a tricky road to get to real economic reform that they promised. On the foreign policy front (or at least the "dealing with the Palestinian front") they stood for two states, with Bennett and the Likud Right in the government, they won't get that. NOW if that's the case where is the funding for their economic reforms if they are paying to annex 60% of the West Bank?

And how do their economic reforms stand against Bennett's platform of lower taxes and market based solutions? My guess, is that Yesh Atid doesn't stand up for any of it, keeps their ministries and eventually gets wiped out in the next election (Kadima style) SHOULD this government come to power. However, that is just a guess on my part.

Oh and there was this:

Sources in Habayit Hayehudi and Shas tell Haaretz that Netanyahu's aides have approached the two parties to explore the possibility of getting them to join the coalition while leaving Yesh Atid out.

 which fizzled but it does "tip" the PM's hand in my opinion.

Who was the big winner here? Naftali Bennett. He took a smaller party and more than doubled it's strength (if you count the Two National Union MK's and the three Habayit Yehudi MK's. he got the ministerial posts he wanted AND he is sitting in basic control of funding for the YESHA (as the government cannot hold without his seats).

Still there is time for other things to unfold and the coalition process is not done yet.  SO.. everything else is speculation (as much as this article is).

New Elections for Israel?

As the coalition building process wears on, a few things become obvious.

The first is that Tzipi Livni and HaTanuah have effectively counted themselves out of Israeli politics should there ever be new elections. Her racing to join Likud in coalition in return for the Justice Ministry (and the ceremonial Head of Negotiations with Palestinians team) plus the Environmental Portfolio AND the Head of the Knesset House Committee and willingness to toss away all of her pre-election promises renders her irrelevant.

Sure, she could have argued that at least moderate forces got those ministries (particularly Justice and the Environment) which might otherwise fall into the hands of Rightist "hacks" determined to follow Likud's hoped for economic policy patterned on Republican Randian Economics, but, that is easily disputed as seen by Likud-Betainu's protests about her impinging on "Rightist Legislation" (to quote Likud MK Ofir Akunis). 
Not too mention that her party is already struggling due to communication issues within the party:

During the meeting, Livni told those present that contrary to reports in the media, she has not yet decided Hatnuah's second minister. She also told the MKs that she and Netanyahu had not yet agreed on which committee would be given to her faction or which Knesset member would be its chairperson. 

Not all of Hatnuah’s MKs were pleased with Livni’s actions in signing the coalition agreement.

 

“Livni didn’t tell the Knesset members in advance that she had reached agreements with Netanyahu," a party official said, "and she told the media she had signed before the members knew about it.  

“The way Amram Mitzna was treated won’t go by quietly, either," he added. "The fact that Amir Peretz behaves in this party as if it were his own, making Livni break an earlier agreement she had with Mitzna, is wrong. Mitzna should be the next minister from the party.” As soon as the meeting was over, Livni held a private meeting with Mitzna on the matter.

 The next thing we know is that either to join the government, either Yesh Atid or Habayit HaYehudi (particularly HaBayit HaYehudi) is going to have radically change at least part of their core platform principle. For instance, Jewish Home is committed to Annexing Area C of the West Bank and then keeping Areas A & B, as "Autonomous areas" linked through new high speed roads. Of course, while this goes along great with the new Rightist Likud it doesn't jive with the Prime Ministers very public statement reiterating his Bar-Ilan speech, which commits him to Two States, nor does it fit with the new coalition agreement that PM Netanyahu signed with HaTanuah and Tzipi Livni. As Naftali Bennett (Head of HaBayit HaYehudi) said:

"We've come to serve the nation in any fashion, from the coalition or the opposition," Bennett told a meeting of his party's convention in Jerusalem on Wednesday. "The only question is what this government's path will be: buying political time, or truly coping with fundamental problems? If the new government is interested in tackling the nation of Israel's real problems, we're in. But if the goal is to buy more time, we won't be. And that's not a disaster."

Regarding Livni, he said that he's "not interested" in Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas or any of the other PA officials who might negotiate with her. "What interests me is the nation of Israel - not Abu Mazen [Abbas], Abu Ala [Ahmed Qureia] or who knows who else will sit with Livni," he said. "They're not interesting. We're at a historic crossroads, and the ball is in the prime minister's court: Will we hold onto the Land of Israel and Jerusalem, or will we entrust the negotiations to someone who has already offered to divide the city of Jerusalem and conceded [the West Bank settlement bloc of Ariel?"

But also both parties Yesh Atid AND Jewish Home are even at odds with their own proposals on how to handle the Occupation and are only united in a desire to see some form of National Service happen. Of course then this precludes the joining of Shas and UTJ, unless Likud can work out some kind of compromise.

Now Likud has tried and drafted up a new compromise plan. However, BOTH Yesh Atid and Habayit HaYehudi have rejected that plan stating:

The plan, proposed by the head of Netanyahu's National Economic Council, Prof. Eugene Kandel, sets a goal of drafting 60 percent of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox ) men aged 18 to 24 within five years. But critics say it lacks teeth.

Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi had previously announced that they oppose the plan, and on Wednesday they were joined by Kadima. At a meeting with Netanyahu, Kadima chairman Shaul Mofaz said he couldn't join a government whose proposal on the Haredi draft issue was akin to the one over which he quit Netanyahu's second government last summer.

Moreover, most of Hatnuah - the one party with which Netanyahu has so far signed a coalition agreement - is also expected to oppose the plan.

Thus if all these parties stand firm, Netanyahu will have trouble forming a coalition without agreeing to significantly tougher measures to get Haredi men into the army. Currently, 33 MKs - from Yesh Atid, Habayit Hayehudi and Kadima - have broadly agreed on the outlines of a much tougher plan than Kandel's. The Kandel plan is so far supported only by Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu's 31 MKs.

Well then, what's on the horizon? Right now the Likud Betainu coalition has 37 MK's. 31 from Likud-Betainu and 6 from HaTanuah. Even with both Haredi parties the best they can get to is 55 (11 from Shas and 7 from UTJ). To get there they would need either Labor, Yesh Atid, HaBayit HaYehudi, Meretz OR the Arab Parties to join the coalition. One can pretty much count out the Arab Parties and Meretz. That leaves Labor. There is no way that this would be a workable coalition longer than 6 months. There are just too many differences between the players.

Oh, and here is one other thing. The Knesset Channel just did a poll of the Israeli electorate. Apparently IF there were new elections (still an unlikely possibility). Yesh Atid  would become the new leading party with 30 seats, Likud would drop to 22 Seats, HaBayit HaYehudi would go up to 15 seats, and Labor would drop to 13 seats. G-d only knows what would happen to HaTanuah... I would bet their people go to Yesh Atid along with Mofaz' two seats.

Of course there would still be a mess in this case as well but now it would be on Yair Lapid to try to form a coalition and not Benjamin Netanyahu. Given Lapid's ego (remember, he stated that HE would be Prime Minister within 18 months), and political ambitions the news of this poll has to make him and Naftali Bennett sit up and take notice.

Will there be new elections? No one knows, but, whatever happens we are going to see some defining moments for the Israeli polity in the next few months.