Israeli New Unity Gov't - The Reactions

The other night I was able to publish a quick article regarding the Breaking News that the Israeli Government decided rather than have early elections, they would form a national unity government between the two largest parties; Likud - The party of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu which has 27 seats and Kadima - Now the party of the now Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz which has 28 seats in the Israeli Knesset (Parliment).

In that diary, there is some great discussion from some very knowledgable Kossaks about the process which I recommend reading.

Today I wanted to follow up with more analysis and discussion. PLUS I wanted to show reactions from the Israeli Opposition (Labor, Meretz, and Yair Lapid).

First a quick re-cap. Up until last night the Israeli Government was planning on dissolving itself to hold early elections on Sept. 4th 2012 (ahead of October 2013 the original date). Here was a diary I wrote about those elections which showed some information, of course given the news of the day, that diary is irrelevant BUT, some of the info. contained in it will help with some background.

OK.. so on to events of the last day and reactions.

In late meetings yesterday, Kadima - which had been the main opposition party, not too mention the largest party in the Knesset (the Israeli parliment) joined into a National Unity Government with Likud and the Government with it's huge numbers of seats in the Knesset (up to 94 out of 120) cancelled the early elections.

So what is happening?

Well reactions range from surprised to somewhat hopeful to somewhat negative. First I would like to give the reaction now from Israel's Opposition party Avodah (Labor):

"Does the truth have no value?" asked Labor Party Chair Shelly Yachimovich at a press conference Tuesday on the decision to cancel early elections and establish a wide unity government.

Yachimovich took the podium after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima Party Chairman Shaul Mofaz announced that Kadima would be joining the coalition. "Do you believe a single word they say?" Yachimovich asked. ...

...Turning to Mofaz, Yachimovich said that, unlike him, she had never called Netanyahu a liar, and that when criticizing him she had always been respectful, despite the strong ideological polarization.

Nevertheless, she said, Netanyahu was a "right-wing extremist, a capitalist, an old-school Thatcherite."

"And that's what the debate is about – two ideologies: one social-democratic and one capitalistic and violent."

Now that Kadima joined the coalition, Yachimovich's Labor which was seeing a small rennissance under her leadership is now the head of the Opposition and as she later said, she feels that's a role that Avodah can play. With the summer protests coming (and with their focus on Social and Economic Justice), Labor indeed does have an opportunity here.

In a swipe at both the new government AND Labor and Meretz. New Party Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid had this to say:

"This is the chance of a lifetime. Without understanding what they were doing, Mofaz and (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu have made us the only alternative for the sane center," the journalist-turned-politician wrote in the letter, which was published following Netanyahu and Mofaz's joint press conference.

"I know you are disappointed with the past day's developments because as citizens it pains you to see how cynicism has taken over the entire political sphere and how no one is even pretending to care. You are also disappointed because we could already taste it. We already launched our (election) campaign," Lapid wrote.

"I felt the same way for about two hours, and then I realized this was the opportunity of a lifetime. Kadima has gone back to being what it has always been – a part of Likud. Labor and Meretz are on the Left. In one day we have become the only representatives of the sane middle class," the rookie politician told his supporters.

"Twenty-eight mandates are now up for grabs in the center of the political map. They could be ours. You can also add all those who are infuriated by the old and immoral politics we have witnessed (today)."

The Pundits in Israel and the U.S. are also out in full force. Here are a few:

Bradley Burston in Haaretz writes: Netanyahu's next Israel: Bad for the Right, good for the Jews

This is no longer the elected government of Israel. This is the hand-picked junta of the state of Bullpucky. There is the defense minister whom no one in Israel will vote for, the justice minister whom no one has ever voted for, the foreign minister for whom elections have been a keep-out-of-jail card, and now Mofaz.

It was just last week that Shaul Mofaz telling everyone who would listen, that Netanyahu and Barak were unfit to run this country, inappropriate to meet its social challenges, ill-equipped to deal rationally with the one issue that consumes them, Iran.

Apparently, in exchange for a cabinet post at a time when Kadima is plummeting in polls, Mofaz now concedes that Netanyahu and Barak are at least fit to run Shaul Mofaz....

.....Keep your eye, especially, on Labor and Meretz and Hadash. And keep your eye, as well, on Rabin Square. Summer is coming in early this year. So are social justice protests. The same protests that the election campaign was meant, in part, to undercut.

Already the rallies have begun.... Speaking at a rally of 1,000 also attended by Labor and Meretz MK's Tzipi Livni (former leader of Kadima) had this to say:

During the rally, which was organized by activists affiliated with last summer's social protest, former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni said she came "at the request of these young people, who care about Israel and are willing to fight for its future, and could not tolerate this morning's turn of events.

"They deserve politics that are based on principles rather than (Knesset) seats," she said.

Haaretz editor Aluf Benn had this in his column Formation of Israeli unity cabinet shows Netanyahu blinked first, again

In the dead-of-night deal he reached with Kadima chief Shaul Mofaz, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acted exactly according to a pattern of behavior established in his current term: avoiding risks at all costs. Netanyahu preferred the 18 months of certainty a unity government provides over going to an elections, despite polls that predicted an easy win.

Netanyahu hates taking chances. He'll always prefer playing it safe and avoiding uncertain situations. As far as he's concerned, the results speak to his favor. Fact is, he's still in power, and will stay there for a long time heading an unbreakable coalition, with Tzipi Livni who used to assault him in her Knesset speeches for his "survival policy," sitting at her Tel Aviv home.

Now, Netanyahu is at his most comfortable. Instead of been dependant on the mood swings of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and the Likud's right-wing representatives, he has a coalition with two wings, between which he can maneuver. At times he'll break right, at others left, all according to the needs of the moment. He can throw a bone to Lieberman and then to Mofaz; build a settlement and evacuate illegal structures. At times he’ll indicate that war with Iran is near and at others he'll give U.S. President Barack Obama's diplomatic overtures a chance. No politician can dream up of a more perfect situation.

So.... What do we think will happen? My facebook friends in Israel are mixed. Some are positive that this will be ok and will allow Netanyahu to tack to the Center and make deals with Palestinians as well as rein in the religious. Others feel it is destruction of the democratic process where leaders from parties have let down their constituencies.

No one knows what is in store and we won't have any idea for a few months what this really will mean but, it is very interesting news.

BREAKING: NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT IN ISRAEL - Elections off

This is potentially big news....

Apparently in late night discussions - Israel's largest party Kadima (28 Knesset seats) which is in the opposition AND Likud the leading party of the ruling coalition and party of Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu (27 Knesset seats) have decided to form a National Unity Government where Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz gets to be Deputy Prime Minister.
Here is the story from the Israeli Daily Haaretz:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition chairman MK Shaul Mofaz (Kadima) reached a surprise agreement early Tuesday morning to form a national unity government.....

This is a total surprise move ahead of a move by various parties to call for early elections.Not much yet on this but stay tuned for more to come....

So far reaction from the Israeli Left:

Meretz head Zahava Gal-On expressed outrage over the surprise move, calling it a "mega-stinking maneuver by a prime minister who wants to avoid elections and a desperate opposition chairman facing a crash."

Please discuss.....

PARTY TIME IN ISRAEL

And the election season is not just for Americans anymore. The Israelis have decided to join in the fun (and... interestingly enough so did Hamas). SO, what's ahead????

That is the $ 1,000,000 question and the answer is that no one really knows, Predicting Israeli elections and political behavior is an imperfect science at best. That said,  let's start with what seems to happening, then go into some predictions. I am willing to make some from my place of ignorance here in the U.S. And I note, I may be completely and totally wrong (it would not be the first time), I am not Israeli and all I have to go on are a few media sources and a knesset inside blog that I read regularly. BUT predicting is fun SO... here is something to chew on.

Away we go:

Netanyahu's Likud moves to dissolve Knesset ahead of early Israel elections Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset on Wednesday, as Israel's political system readies for upcoming early general elections.....
....Israel's political arena has been abuzz with the likelihood of elections being moved up from their due 2013 date, with one possible cause for holding early elections is the controversial Tal Law, which exempts ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from mandatory military service.
The law, which the High Court of Justice declared unconstitutional in February, is to expire in August, compelling the government to deal with the explosive issue.

What you may ask is the Tal Law?

In short it is:

the Tal Law was passed on July 23, 2002 in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, as a temporary law which needs to be renewed every five years. The bill enables a continuation of the exempts to yeshiva students subject to the detailed conditions within the bill. According to the law, at the age of 22, yeshiva students are provided with a decision year and can choose between one-year civil service alongside a paying job or a shortened 16-month military service and future service in the reserves as an alternative to continuing to study. Five motions against the law were filed with the High Court of Justice claiming it violates the principle of equality. In 2005, the state admitted in a response to a Supreme Court petition, that the Tal Law had failed to change enlistment arrangements for ultra-Orthodox Jews, as only a few dozen had enlisted to the army as a result of it. The law was extended in 2007 by another five years. On February 21, 2012, the High Court of Justice ruled that the law is unconstitutional.

And what is the controversy? Well, many in Israel at this time feel that it is blatantly unfair that Yeshiva students can skip national service while all other Jewish citizens have to go into the Israeli Defense Forces.
This howeve, to me, is indicative of a larger problem that Israelis need and want to address, that is the issue of national character. As a young nation, Israel still seems to be finding and defining it's "being". There are many issues (the Occupation, Growing Economic inequality, poor civil defense readiness, Foreign Policy as related to the changing Middle East - particularly Egypt, natural gas and energy, water resources... to name just a few) but, one issue that is key to the very nature of the State is the division between religious and secular Israelis and the fight between the two to define the character of the State.

Currently, the coalition run by the Likud Party is beholden to hard Right nationalist and religious interests (due to the nature of Israeli coalition politics). Anything and everything that gets done has to run through this filter. Personally, I think the government wants to get away from this and rule from a more secular perspective (than currently exists) along with a more nationalist bent towards security.
The Prime Ministers party (Likud) currently enjoys wide public support (well as wide as is possible in Israel), and with the emergence of former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz to the leadership of Kadima, along with the resignation of Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni from the Knesset, I think the PM senses that NOW is a good time to change directions while he maintains the Prime Ministry.

Why do I say that... Well here are a few polls:

The Globes Poll

Current Knesset seats in [brackets] 31 [27] Likud
15 [08] Labor
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [28] Kadima
11 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home
03 [03] Meretz
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

The Dahaf Poll

31 [27] Likud
17 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
10 [28] Kadima
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
04 [03] Meretz
02 [03] Jewish Home
02 [--] Deri
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

The Dahaf / Yediot Ahronot Poll with two extra scenarios

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [27] Likud
18 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [28] Kadima
11 [--] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
07 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
03 [--] Deri
02 [04] National Union
02 [03] Jewish Home
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence Option #1 If Deri runs as leader of Shas: Likud 29, Labor 18, Y.B. 13, Yesh Atid 12, Shas 11, Kadima 10
Option #2 If Livni runs as Lapid’s #2: Likud 29, Yesh Atid 16, Labor 14, Y.B. 13 and Kadima 9

With these three polls one can see that Likud seems to have the upper hand in all outcomes, but what is interesting is the nature of the coalition it can build. So without further ado... Here is my thinking on the future coalition process... and one note - despite objections from Likud, I do think that Defense Minister Barak's party will fold into Likud:

1. Option One (what I believe is most likely to happen): Likud wins (30 seats), and forms a National Coalition with Shas (7 Seats), Kadima (11 seats), Yesh Atid (11 Seats), and possibly Yisrael Beitanu (13 Seats). Barak gets tossed, Mofaz (Kadima) gets back the Defense Portfolio, Lieberman maintains the Foreign Ministry, and Lapid gets some kind of Economic Ministry. This would give the Government 72 Seats (a strong majority) or thereabouts. As for the Occupation... they would probably enact Netanyahu's vision (which is similar to the Mofaz / Kadima plan but with less territorial "giveaways" AND with no division of Jerusalem.

2. Option Two (it could happen): Likud wins (30 Seats), forms a National Coalition with YB (13-15 Seats), Kadima (11 Seats), Shas under Yishai (7 Seats), and maybe UTJ (who seeing where the wind is blowing trades IDF service for some major religious concessions somewhere else). Barak gets the Boot from the DM (again given to Mofaz) and Lieberman remains as FM. This would pretty much keep things the same as they are now with Likud having between 63-69 seats. Not as comfortable a majority but enough of one to keep the Haredi in check. One way Netanyahu shores up his majority would also be to include the National Union (which would be a DISASTER! but would fulfill certain messianic members of his government with great joy.

3. Option Three (what I would like to happen and probably has as much chance of happening as Leprechauns and Unicorns leaping out of my rear end and handing me Gold and Wishes): Likud wins 30 seats and CANNOT form a government. Yachimovich and Labor get the call. Giving the Government the following: Labor (18 seats), A Deri run Shas joins in (11 Seats), Yesh Atid with Livni comes over (16 seats), Meretz joins (4 Seats), and Kadima (13 Seats) make up the coalition with a bare majority of 62 seats. Seeing the way the wind is blowing perhaps Hadash also votes with the "New Alignment" on major bills. Mofaz gets Defense, Livni gets the Foreign Ministry, Lapid gets an Economic Post (which would put him in direct conflict with Yachimovich who Lapid has said is too far Left, but for the purposes of this - I could care less).

4. Option Four (what I call the "sell-out" option). Likud wins (30 Seats), gets Labor into the government on a National Portfolio Ministry (18 Seats), Yesh Atid - for the Foreign Ministry (12 seats) and Kadima comes in in Defense (11 Seats) . This would give the Government 71 seats or thereabouts and has as much chance of happening me being elected President of the U.S. in early elections this year, but there is a certain amount of sense behind it. Of course then, it might mean that a good portion of Likud would bolt the party to work with a more Rightist party like YB (which would then collapse the government) in response to teaming up with Labor.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Probably nothing like what I am predicting will happen but hey at least I am putting it out there.

As for the Occupation, and it's end... I think the "best case" scenario would be if Option # 3 gets to happen and that they would revive the Olmert Plan from 2008 (the plan that was in the Palestine Papers).
Anyway, given the news and the polls - what are your thoughts?

Pioneer of Global Peace Studies Turns Out To Be Anti-Semitic Bigot

COURTESY OF IAN REIFOWITZ OVER AT DAILY KOS

This news is beyond disappointing and disheartening. Not much to add, other than to share the story.
From Haaretz:

Johan Galtung, Norwegian sociologist nicknamed the “father of peace studies,” made anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli remarks while lecturing at the University of Oslo, in an article published afterward in the Norwegian press and in an interview with Haaretz that followed.

Among other statements, Galtung claimed that a possible connection exists between the terrorist responsible for the massacre of children in Norway last summer, and the Mossad. “The Jews control U.S. media, and divert for the sake of Israel,” wrote Galtung in an article published in Norway.

He pointed out that one of the factors behind the anti-Semitic sentiment that led to Auschwitz was the fact that Jews held influential positions in German society. Galtung also recommended reading “The Protocols of the Elders of Zion,” – one of the most popular anti-Semitic texts in the world.

Who is Johan Galtung? From wikipedia:

Johan Galtung (born 24 October 1930) is a Norwegian sociologist and the principal founder of the discipline of peace and conflict studies. He founded the Peace Research Institute Oslo in 1959, serving as its Director until 1970, and established the Journal of Peace Research in 1964. In 1969, he was appointed by the King-in-Council to the world's first chair in peace and conflict studies, at the University of Oslo. He resigned his professorship in 1977, and has since held professorships at several universities around the world. Galtung is a prolific researcher, having made contributions to many fields in sociology. He has published more than 1000 articles and over 100 books. He was awarded the Alternative Nobel Prize in 1987, and has received many other accolades.

The details of Galtung's statements are even beyond what you are thinking. He claims as his authority on Jews the writings of white supremacist William Luther Pierce, leader of the white separatist organization National Alliance.  Pierce is the author of The Turner Diaries, which the Southern Poverty Law Center called the "bible of the racist right," and which inspired Timothy McVeigh.

As for the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, it is a well-established fact that it is a forgery. From wikipedia:

The Protocols is a fabricated document purporting to be factual. It was originally produced in Russia between 1897 and 1903, possibly by Pyotr Ivanovich Rachkovsky, head of the Paris office of the Russian Secret Police, and unknown others.

Source material for the forgery consisted jointly of Dialogue aux enfers entre Machiavel et Montesquieu or Dialogue in Hell Between Machiavelli and Montesquieu, an 1864 political satire by Maurice Joly and a chapter from Biarritz, an 1868 novel by the antisemitic German novelist Hermann Goedsche, which had been translated into Russian in 1872.

Galtung, however, stated: "It is hard to believe that the Russian secret police was able to be so specific," and when Haaretz followed up with him he continued to hold on to this sickening fantasy: "I don’t know exactly who wrote the protocols."
For those unfamiliar with exactly what the Protocols are and have meant in history, again from wikipedia:

Adolf Hitler and the Nazis were major proponents of the text. It was studied, as if a factual document, in German classrooms after the Nazi Party came to power in 1933, despite having been exposed as fraudulent years before. In the opinion of historian Norman Cohn, the Protocols was Hitler's primary justification for initiating the Holocaust—his "warrant for genocide."

As I said, I have nothing to add. This is a truly devastating thing to hear, in particular coming from someone who has been such a strong advocate for peace.

Despite Right Wing Rhetoric, MOST Muslims Don't like Al-Qaeda

One of the Mantra's of Islamophobe's, Right Wingers, ODS (Obama Derangement Syndrome) sufferers and the Faux News crowd is that we constantly hear the drumbeat of how Islam is a radical religion by nature (I guess they never read the New or Old Testament) and how "Teh Mooslims" just love them some terror and al-Qaeda. Well it turns out that this might be just a tad overstated (understatement on purpose).

According to a Pew Research Poll it turns out that Muslims in Middle Eastern countries are not all that fond of al-Qaeda at all. I find this interesting as when on a Right Wing Hate site (anti-Islamic) I was arguing with a commentor that MOST Muslims did not support terrorists or terrorism and this persons comment back was "Prove it...". Now aside from the obvious facts that whole societies do not engage in daily terror as a populace aside. Here now is the proof.

According to the latest Pew Poll:

A year after the death of its leader, al Qaeda is widely unpopular among Muslim publics. A new poll by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, conducted March 19 to April 13, 2012, finds majorities – and mostly large majorities – expressing negative views of the terrorist group in Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Turkey and Lebanon

.

These numbers show a dramatic decrease in support for Bin-Laden and Co. over the years from 2003 (the year of the Iraq Invasion) -2011 (Right before Bin-Laden's death) as the chart below shows.



Lebanon and Turkey (a new favorite "whipping boy" of the Rightists) apparently have very few al-Qaeda supporters at all with just 2% and 6% of the Muslim communities supporting the salafist fanatics.
Unfortunately, The Palestinian territories, while showing a dramatic decline from 72% to 34% approval STILL had the highest amount of support in the areas where questions were asked last year. This was followed by Indonesia and Egypt, where a surprising 21% of people viewed Al-Qaeda favorably.
These numbers though give lie to the Right Wing meme that followers of Islam are all (or mostly) terrorists or terror supporters. Certainly it is true that even 10% of a given population supporting these fanatics is high and efforts should be made to continue to discredit terror and eliminate it's use as a political tactic. But the good news is that vast, vast majorities in MOST of these countries (and look at Lebanon with 98% DISAPPROVAL) have turned away from the thugs of al-Qaeda and their fanatical ways.

All of this said - this goes back to those on the right trying to create a "culture war" (and to be fair that can be said about Rightists in the Islamic World as well) to sow fear in our populace. One right wing lunatic had a headline at his site stating that "President Obama Supports Palestinian Extremism" with a picture of a young boy wearing combat gear. Now, granted this is the extreme fringe, but the idea here is to get people to start making these associations every day and eventually demonize a whole group of people as terrorists, others, and so forth.

The reality based community needs to be aware of this and have proof to show that this kind of hateful rhetoric has no place in the year 2012. These are not the years of the Crusades and one should not want to return to those, and honestly that too goes both ways.

Are there problems with fanaticism in the Middle East. Yes, there are. But, mass denunciations and demonizations are NOT the path to solving the problems that fanaticsm brings. It doesn't help the people in that region and it doesn't help us here in the U.S.

Health Care Law and the Mark of the Beast… the Religious Right Flips Out

On Facebook tonight an acquaintance from High School (who is a bit of a religious nut – posting up to 10 video’s of “Christian Songs” and various Right Wing propaganda each day), decided to post a piece by Preacher Paul Begley that states that President Obama’s Health Care Law requires everyone to be implanted with a Microchip in line with the prophecy from Revelations which states that in the end times everyone will be given the “mark of the beast”.

Preacher Begley explains all of the coming signs of the Bible along with hawking apocalyptic paintings, love offerings and of course “Jesus Loves You” Coffee Mugs (only $ 15.00)…AND with all this one can see an Eight minute long screed about how the Affordable Care Act is rife with end time prophecy, including everyone getting the “666 mark of the Beast”.

Now it isn’t enough that people think that the ACA, something that includes one of the largest “giveaway’s” to Private Enterprise in history (or at least in the history of healthcare) is saddled with nonsensical rumors like it is “Socialized Medicine” featuring Governmental and IRS control of doctors and health records. Where evil government bureaucrats run around operating death panels but now we find out that according to utter wingnuttia, President Obama is the anti-Christ himself and we are all getting marked by the Beast with implanted “Beast Chips”.

Here is the preaching of wingnuttia:

The New Health Care (Obamacare) law H.R. 3590 Also HR 4872 requires all US citizens to have the RIFD implanted http://www.paulbegleyprophecy.com/ Perry Stone also has confirmed this info will be fully implemented world wide end of 2017 Also Congressman Ron Paul on Fox News confirms the RFID micro chip is implantable also Brian Williams of NBC reported it could be implanted world wide by 2017….

Well now that you have sat through this… Snopes debunks this

I can’t cut and paste the snopes info… but basically what this refers too is HR3200 a bill that was never passed by Congress. So despite how Preacher Begley goes on about this law and how it was passed… well – no, it wasn’t. So that is a completely moot point.

Second of all, the law does NOT mandate any kind of implantation of any device. What it does is allow for a database track of those devices that were put into people during surgery (such as pacemakers) and it allows the government to track performance of those devices for their effectiveness as tools of healing.
But notice at the end of his screed, Pastor Begley says – “I am just asking the questions” KNOWING full well that what he is saying is false. Along with that, he says: “I am not endorsing any candidate but all of the Republicans are vowing to repeal Obamacare, so…..”

This is what the Right is doing, mixing disinformation with good old ignorance and a return to dark ages philosophy. This is just one reason as to why it is so important that we re-elect the President. Do we really need to create “the Handmaids Tale” for