Shells in the North, Shells in the South - An Israeli Dilemna

As we have all been seeing of late, Palestinian Militants in Gaza have once again begun raining shells on Southern Israel. Additionally, now shells from the Syrian Civil War have begun to fall on the Golan. As of yesterday, Gunners from the FSA (The Free Syrian Army - an odd collection of Social revolutionaries and, and Al-Qaeda operatives funded by the reactionary Gulf States) missed their mark and dropped mortars into the Golan. After numerous warnings the IDF reacted with Tanks stationed on the border and scored a direct hit on the mortar position. From YNET:

Twenty-four hours after the IDF first retaliated against a mortar that was fired from Syria and hit Israeli territory, another shell struck the Israeli side of the Golan Heights, just north of Tel Hazeka. No injuries or damage were reported.

Shortly thereafter, the IDF returned fire, using tanks deployed along the border to target two D-3 mortar launchers belonging to the Syrian army. A direct hit was identified.

This return of fire drew criticism from the FSA, a claim of partisanship by the Israelis on the side of the Butcher Assad. 

At the same time civilian communities in the South face heavy rocket fire from Militant groups in Gaza. According to Ma'an News, A group of Israeli tanks and Bulldozers were operating on the Gaza border around the security fence when gunmen from the Popular Resistance Committees opened fire on the Israelis.

Israeli military vehicles briefly penetrated the southern Gaza Strip earlier Thursday morning, leading to clashes with Palestinian militants.

The Popular Resistance Committees said its gunmen had confronted an Israeli force of four tanks and a bulldozer involved in a short-range incursion beyond Israel's border fence with the Gaza Strip.

"Terrorists opened fire at IDF (Israeli army) soldiers while they were performing routine activity adjacent to the security fence," an Israeli military spokeswoman said in Jerusalem. She said reports of Palestinians injuries were being checked.

A military official said the soldiers responded by firing at "suspicious locations" and said an Israeli soldier was lightly injured by mortar fire.

Palestinian fighters said they detonated an explosive device by an Israeli military vehicle near Khuzaa, east of Khan Younis.

In this case the Israelis struck back and since then the shells have been falling in the South. Of course, in recent months, militants from the South have been launching rockets into Israel on a regular basis and while no one has been killed there has been damage and fear in these civilian areas. On a personal note, having a friend at a kibbutz in the area - he tells me that the fire has been incessant and has caused damage.

Of course (and rightly so), the Israeli government has vowed to take steps to defend both borders and has done so. I don't think anyone in their right mind can argue with that. SO... where do they face any dilemma's?

Well... in the South, another Cast Lead Operation style runs the risk of bringing the Egyptians into the conflict OR if not actually into the conflict brings a potential abrogation of the Peace Treaty with Israel and return to the "Cold War" days of Nasser (and in the beginning Sadat). Currently the Egyptians are working with both the Israelis and Hamas to broker a cease fire deal and to be honest it is in the Egyptian regimes interest to get that cease fire. They can ill-afford a potential conflict with Israel as they continue to deal with an economy that has been shattered by greed and abuse.

However, the Muslim Brotherhood (the Parent organization of the ruling Freedom and Justice Party) has been out in the streets whipping up opposition to the Peace treaty in order to distract the Public from the economic woes of the nation AND to push an introduction of strict Sharia into the Egyptian Legal system.

SO, Egypt of course is in a dilemma in which should the Israelis respond in "Cast Lead" Fashion - the Egyptians in order to avoid a full scale internal political crises need to respond with gestures of their own. If they don't, they will face open revolt (a revolt that they are really to blame for by stoking crowds), and if they do they respond - they will face all the problems that come from the SCAF (the armed forces) losing commercial deals not too mention a conflict with their main benefactor; the U.S. Government.

At the same time the Israelis, heading into an election face issues of their own. PM Netanyahu HAS to do something regarding the Rocket Fire in the South. Today, Amos Harel and Avi Isaacheroff in Haaretz talked about the possibility that while there would not be a Cast Lead response - there might be a retaliation based around targeted assassination.

I suggest reading Harel and Isaacherof here as there is great insight into this dilemna where right now the only political winner is looking Hamas (who simply doesn't care what happens to Gaza or the local population as long as they can remain in the vanguard of "resistance"):

Gaza, however, remains the main problem for Netanyahu. The more intensely the southern residents protest what they see as the government's abandonment of their security, the more seriously he will have to consider taking tougher measures, with a resumption of targeted killings the most likely possibility. 

Netanyahu, who is preparing for January's election, is already being attacked in the political arena for not responding more forcefully. But he knows that his range of options against Hamas is limited. Israel is at this stage trying to avoid a ground operation a la Cast Lead. One reason is that the diplomatic reality now is far different than it was when that offensive was launched in 2008: Israel fears a direct confrontation with the new regime in Egypt and it knows that neither the United States nor Europe will be as tolerant of a large-scale military operation this time around.

There was no evidence Sunday along the Gaza border that the IDF was making any special preparations for an operation. Assassinations don't require very much preparation, though. All that's needed is a decision, but that, too, is a gamble, because it's hard to know how Hamas would react to such an initiative. Right now Hamas is looking pretty sure of itself. Its leaders didn't hesitate to take responsibility for some of the attacks over this past week, in a way that Israel saw as particularly provocative

Now, as for the North... Well, getting drawn into a civil war with a country that no matter who wins, will be hostile to Israel is yet another issue. If the FSA wins and ends the cruelty and barbarism of the Assad regime towards it's own people, chances are that an Islamist government (funded by the Saudi Wahabi regime and conservative Gulf States) would take control and in the chaos that would ensue, Israelis would face a Syrian regime with ties to Al-Qaeda on it's Southern Border.

On the other hand should Assad and his Iranian allies win in Syria, Israel would then face a solid Iranian alliance in the form of the Government of Syria AND the quasi Hizbollah State (formerly known as Lebanon </snark>) on their Northern border. A situation that can lead to nothing but no good.

If the Israelis intervene here (and as Harel and Isaacheroff report that they have no desire to do), they will immediately give a boost to whomever they intervene against. If they intervene against FSA and Al-Qaeda militants they give the militants the mantle of being the folks who are resisting not only Assad but also the "hated Israelis", and that would go a long ways to keeping the money and equipment flowing to the Rebels. At the same time should they intervene against Assad and the military, they make the rebels look like "Israeli tools" and hand the Assad regime an invaluable political point to justify it's continued war against it's own population.

SO.... we are left with this: "What is the answer?". Personally, I see no good responses here but I do see some opportunities. NOW, is a time when Israel can completely deflate Hamas by dealing with the Palestinians in the West Bank and working for a comprehensive Peace deal. This is a chance to open negotiations and for the Israelis to illustrate just WHY their security concerns need to be paramount. It can be a diplomatic win for them and if progress is achieved in negotiations in the West Bank can serve to show just how ineffective violent resistance is.

As for Syria, Israel needs to simply defend it's borders but should avoid anything further the more they simply respond yet not engage unless engaged the better it is. The Syrian situation is just one that can spin completely out control and cause massive havoc for the Israelis.

Finally as for Gaza, Personally I favor the Harel and Isaacheroff response (targeted assassinations) towards a Cast Lead style incursion. It may come to that in the end but, I think once the Hamas and Militant leaders get the message that if they show their heads in public they might just lose those heads.... they will be at the table with the Egyptian Leadership (and SCAF) telling them to make a deal. Because if the Israelis can isolate Hamas and separate them from the Palestinian polity. The Rocket fire just might possibly end.

Right Wing Jews Are Endangering Israel By Trying To Make It A Partisan Wedge

I have contended in the past that right wing Jews who claim to be motivated by love of Israel to support Republicans are actually trying to do the inverse.  They are motivated by love of Republicans and are to use Israel as a wedge to benefit Republicans.  It is like the tail wagging the dog.  I think this has been completely laid bare in the most recent election.

For people of all political stripes who care about Israel, this presents a huge potential problem.  Like any wedge issue, this one may have its intended effect and divide the electorate.  Given that we have had and currently have an electorate that has been largely supportive of Israel and Americas ties to Israel, this is a very bad thing for people who support Israel.

Support for Israel in American political discourse has long been bi-partisan, and it still largely is.  It is one of the rare issues that is so in our hyper-polarized age, and that has been an amazing gift for American supporters of Israel, allowing us to maintain America's crucial support for Israel through different administrations and Congressional changes.  However, if right wing Jews succeed in making it a wedge, then support for Israel will no longer be bi-partisan.  Support for Israel will be identified with one political party, and then by definition be shut out of power half the time.

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I read such intense vitriol directed at liberal Jews from right wing Jews.  They think that liberal Jews are all communist agitators who want to bomb Israel off the face of the Earth.  This post from PJ media is a typical example.  It makes me wonder if those kinds of authors and the commenters have ever actually met any liberal American Jews or have ever been to the places where they live. Or if they have ever been to Israel and seen the tremendous political diversity among Zionist Jews there.

It is clear that right wing Jews are trying to drive the message that if you support Israel, you have to be on the right wing.  They've even demonized Alan Dershowitz, who is one of the most important pro-Israel voices in America, because he is a Democrat.  And the amount of vitriol that they've directed at President Obama is astounding, brazenly calling him an antisemite.  Whether one loves or hates his policies, it is clear that the President is not an antisemite, given that people closest to him in his inner circle have included, for example, Chiefs of Staff Rahm Emmanuel (served in the Israeli Army) and Jack Lew (Orthodox Jew).

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Liberal American Jews won't, en masse, turn on Israel if a wedge is driven by these right wing Jews, but liberal non-Jews will.  There is creeping anti-Israelism and anti-Semitism on the left, as evidenced by the antics at places such as Daily Kos and Huffington Post that have been documented here and elsewhere.  If support for Israel becomes identified in the public discourse as a "right wing" or "Republican" thing, then it will push much of the left to be against that, and into the opposite camp.  That's how polarized American politics works, because most Americans, left and right, buy their politics wholesale and don't follow individual issues carefully.

By trying to force a wedge to boost Republicans, right wing Jews are endangering Israel.

It would be slightly less ridiculous if right wing Jews were at least succeeding in boosting Republicans with these shenanigans, but even that doesn't seem to be the case.  In spite of the last several years of constant shrill vitriol against the President, Democrats, and liberal and centrist Jews, and the hundreds of millions of dollars thrown in by the likes of Sheldon Adelson, the President was reelected this week, Democrats had a substantial nationwide victory, and studies indicate that the Jewish vote hardly moved from being solidly Democratic. 

Support for Israel has been amazingly bi-partisan and enduring in American politics in recent decades, and that has been one of the greatest benefits to Israel as it faces constant challenges from its hostile neighbors.  But now, right wing Jews, by dishonestly presenting support for Israel as exclusively a right wing trait and demonizing famous liberal supporters of Israel, are trying to force American discourse on Israel away from a somewhat broad bi-partisan consensus and toward partisan polarization.  They may very well succeed, and this will profoundly harm Israel.

If right wing Jews really care about Israel, they should cease trying to use it as a wedge, and accept that support for Israel should be bi-partisan to the largest extent possible.  If instead, what they really care about is advancing Repubicans and Israel is simply a means to that end, then it is obvious that they will continue to do as they are doing, and Israel will suffer for it.

So.... Now What? A Personal Perspective....

So... What now? Last night... the question asked of me by a good friend. What now? The President was re-elected, CA has a super-majority of Dems. running the show, he said, "What do you think?" and I had to think on that for a few minutes. And then I had to think for a few minutes more.

Prior to the election I had really been into Middle East politics. Some friends and I founded Team Shalom here, along with other Jewish advocacy groups. This interest took the form of creating a weekly news series dedicated to multiple perspectives on the news called "Fry'd Daze". We ran it for over two years and decided that since no one was much interested after a time, that there was no real point in continuing. So I thought to myself; "Why not get back into that issue?", I mean I have friends and family there, I semi-know the language, I practice Israeli Martial Arts, I read their on-line newspapers (Haaretz and Ynet) every day, I get polling updates from Israel on a regular basis.

But then I was dissuaded in two ways. The first was by the situation itself. It is a mess (belagan in Hebrew). I am not happy with the Israeli Right, who not only pursue policies that I simply don't agree with, but helped form a coalition of racists, crazy people and morons (who simply can't discern fact from fiction and have even stated that Republicans are hippies compared to the people that President Obama supports) to push their cause in the U.S. And arguing against them is fine BUT from all I can see, and according to all of the polls coming out of Israel, they will retain power and do it rather easily. At the same time, I certainly have absolutely ZERO in common with those that support trashing Israel publicly to prove what "good Jews they are" along with I don't see anything that I can support coming from the Palestinian side. So, while I would love to advocate for the Israeli Center and Center-Left (Meretz, Avodah, Yesh-Atid and Tzipi Livni - whatever she is doing), they can't even get themselves together so what the heck am I advocating for?
 
The second thing that dissuaded me are my Israeli friends. They don't understand U.S. individual advocacy for their cause. They appreciate that I feel a connection to them but honestly, I never went through what they have been through and they have not been through what I went through. They care about Jews and Jewish identity, but to them, unless we are moving there or giving them money, honestly... it is not a big deal. It really is this... that convinced me that while I still have an interest in things, honestly... it is not and should not be my main focus. They are right, I am an American. I should worry about my own country before thinking about any other. Watching the Presidents brilliant victory speech brought a complete welling of national pride for our great nation. We did the right thing this year and for that I am grateful. Of course, I will still write on the subject but it is not up to me to tell Israelis what to do. Not from my happy little perch in beautiful California.
 
So... Now what? I think it is to help push the President's agenda forward in a progressive manner. NOT to become bitter at the incremental progress he makes but, to try to make sure that things like sane budgeting, environmental improvement, education enhancement continue on the path that the President has started.
Making sure that we get the reasonable healthcare that the Affordable Care Act is supposed to provide. Making sure that the President knows NOT to cave in to Speaker Boehner and the failed policy proposals of the Teahaddists. Making sure, that we as Americans get renewables front and center in our energy policy, and finally making sure that Seniors and those who need assistance the most don't lose their social safety net and have the ability to live their lives with dignity.

I want to see the President that I voted for, and what President Obama became in the last year and a half and that is my cause. A liberal/progressive system of government that allows for the better nature of Americans to shine through. Because of this election I have that hope. Now, it's time to make that real.

THIS is what I want:

Jewish Americans Break Hard for President Obama, the Lunatic Fringe Scratch their Heads

This year one of the biggest pushes by the Republicans (contextually not literally) was with Jewish American voters. In a highly negative attack campaign, The Republican Jewish Committee and the Emergency Committee for Israel have literally spent YEARS and millions and millions of dollars all to warn all of us Jewish voters that President Obama was a Muslim Brotherhood loving, Jihadi Sympathizer who wanted nothing more than to bring destruction down upon our brothers and sisters in Israel as well as eventually submit the U.S. to Sharia Law.

They pulled out well known racist Pamela Geller to go around calling Muslims "savages", and talked about siding with Israel and "civilization". They even borrowed images of Israeli Prime Minister talking about Nukes in Iran to attack President Obama and on their websites talked about the President actually helping Iran get nukes.

They downplayed President Obama's true friendship with the nation of Israel and it's people. They downplayed the fact that America bankrolled Israel's Iron Dome Missile Defense system. They downplayed the fact that America and Israeli security cooperation are at an all time high. They did everything they could to minimize the words of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Israeli President Shimon Peres who called President Obama an "exceptional friend".

But worse than that... They played their game on the racist assumption that American Jews were not really interested in America. They assumed all we cared about was Israel and stopping "Teh Islamic Menace". They simply NEVER figured out that despite what every poll showed, Jewish American voters are Liberal and Jewish American voters prioritize their own country over any other. These folks simply played the racist Dual Loyalty Canard WITHIN our own community.

All of this, the racism, the lies and the hatred were all to swing two or three states that were going to be close to the Republican column.

But in their delusions and derangement over President Obama (and his middle name as well as his upbringing), they simply never really understood American Jewish voters and honestly... Still don't. That is why they are sitting there today in a state of shock. They simply thought things like this:

Whatever good Obama may have done, none of it comes close to the damage that he is doing with his embrace and acceptance of political Islam.  This is not just damage to the state of Israel, nor the Jewish people, it is damage done to the United States and to the west, in general.

and

Most American Jews, thankfully, are not ultra-super sophisticated progressive-left genius Jews, but it is the genius Jews that most loudly sing the praises of an administration that is friendly toward political Islam.  Political Islam, needless to say, seeks to oppress women, commit genocide upon the Jewish people, slaughter Gay people outright, and impose Islamic Supremacy, via sharia, upon the west.

and the propagandists thought THIS drivel is what would bring Jewish Americans to support Mitt Romney. And that is where they failed, and failed completely. Why? Because Jewish American voters are concerned with the well being of their fellow Americans first and foremost. We saw Paul Ryan's Medicare killing budget that would have put American seniors into a voucher system. We saw Mitt Romney's lie after lie where he never defined a plan outside of various catch phrases and slogans. We saw the Republicans run TWO candidates for Senate that talked about things like "Legitimate Rape" and "Pregnancy from Rape as G-d's will". If that were not enough, we saw Republicans running on platforms to deny LGBT Americans their equal rights, and do all of the things they were so worried about happening in the Islamic world.

As American Jews and Liberals, it's not that we didn't/don't see what happens in Islamic nations, and it's not like we think the blending of religion with the state is not dangerous... BUT we were much more concerned with what was happening here in our own nation. We were concerned with American children that would have faced incredible hardships brought on by Republican Policies. We were concerned for Women's Health and Reproductive Rights. We were concerned with all of the civil rights that would have been at risk in a Republican / Teahaddist America.

Oh and as for Israel which is important to us but not on the level that the Republicans or their ODS (Obama Derangement Syndrome) suffering friends think... We see President Obama as a strong friend to Israel and to Jews worldwide. Because, you see, not all of us buy into the Right Wing narrative that is threatening to destroy Israel. Most of us understand that the Right's reliance and fear and hatred is just that. We can see that the President is a man who cares about our community and nation.

In the end all of that hate and $ 40 million dollars could do nothing to stop the 70% of Jewish Americans that stood up and were counted to support our friend and President, Barack Obama. Sure the Republicans siphoned off 8% of the Jewish vote from 2008, but the country as a whole was off from it's previous level of popular support.

As Jay Michelson in the Forward put it so well:

Well, turns out a lot of people, including most Jews. The Jewish bubble, like other conservative bubbles, was burst yesterday. Not only did America vote for the Kenyan Socialist, but American Jews did as well. And they even elected “anti-Semites” who support moving slowly (but resolutely) on Iran and moving deliberately (but securely) toward a Palestinian state. 

This happened not because of ignorance, and not because of Jewish self-hatred, but because outside of the right-wing echo chamber, mainstream American Jews voted their values, and didn’t believe the incredibly heavily funded propaganda that tried to scare them on Israel and other issues. Most Jews simply do not live in the bubble of the professional-Jewish ‘consensus.’

And that is the truth

J Street ad from after Obama won.

So expect liberal
Shalom!

I was WRONG and I could not be HAPPIER

The day before the election I put out my prediction diary which posited an Obama Win in the Electoral College by a razor thin margin.... 272-266. I gave Florida, Virginia and Ohio (but to be fair I thought the Republicans would only win Ohio because of dirty tactics from the Secretary of State)....

In the popular vote I predicted a close election of 49.5% - 49% with 1% going to various independents. Again.... I WAS WRONG!

For the Senate... One more time... I was wrong. I underestimated the American people and their desire to stand up to the dark elements of the Republican Party. I figured if we could put people like Allen West and Michelle Bachmann into positions of power... the other loons could win. SO, I was happily surprised when I saw West and other Teahaddists went down.

It is with all of this in mind that I GLADLY say that I have absolutely no skill as a prognosticator of political situations (though that won't stop me from continuing to try and there were some things I got very right - the Jewish vote and the Colorado vote).

I am so very happy this morning that we as Americans won last night. I awoke this morning with a huge sigh of relief and with hope that our nation will get out from the cloud of fear and hate that the Right had spread.

To My Republican and Conservative Friends, Family, and Readers

I know yesterday's election was a heartbreaker for you. 

The President was re-elected with a majority of the popular vote and with only two fewer states than he won last time.  The Democrats actually expanded their majority in the Senate.  For the first time ever, voters approved same sex marriage in several states, and even weed was legalized in two states. In California we passed Governor Brown's tax increase and Democrats got a supermajority in both houses of the legislature for the first time ever. 

Yesterday was quite a major victory for the center-left in America, and quite a major loss for the center-right.  The thing is, I know what it is like to lose an election.  It happened to my side in 2000, 2002, and 2004 - three times in a row.  It is utterly heartbreaking.  So unlike other people, I am not going to gloat about yesterday, I am going to say I am empathetic for your loss and I hope we can all move forward together. 

BUT, in return, I am going to ask of you one thing. It is a simple and polite request from a fellow citizen.

We have all been given some very dire predictions about what would happen in the case that Obama was re-elected.  These predictions have come from major pillars of the American Right, such as Fox Channel personalities, many Republican Party elected officials such as Michelle Bachmann and Allan West, and pundits such as Barry Rubin and Dinesh D'souza.  The later even made an entire movie on the topic of predicting what America will look like in 2016 if Obama wass reelected. 

There have been claims that America will become socialist, that we will simply lose our freedom.   There have been predictions that religion or guns will be banned.  There have been predictions that marriages and families will fall apart if gay marriage goes forward.  And, most importantly for this blog, there have also been many claims that Iran will get a nuclear weapon and that Israel will be abandoned, all if Obama won another term.

So what I am asking of my Republican and conservative friends, family, and readers is this:  IF, in four years, America is not a socialist hellhole, if in four years there have been no moves to limit freedom of religion or Second Amendment rights, if in four years the divorce rate is the same or lower, if in four years Iran does not have a nuclear weapon and Israel is in the same or a better security situation than today and has not been abandoned by this administration...

will you open your mind to the possibility that the above mentioned entities, the Fox Channels, the Allan Wests, the Barry Rubins and Dinesh D'souzas, have all been misleading you?  Will you open your mind to the possibility that these people are simply incorrect, when their predictions don't come true?

PZ PREDICTIONS FOR ELECTION 2012

Ok... Six Months ago I diaried this here and I am going to stick with predictions here on Election Eve.

Here goes...

Popular Vote:

Candidates going either way 49.5% vs. 49%

What do I base this on.... I realize that President Obama has the RV lead AND I realize that the LV voter numbers are skewed Republican in this particular race. That said, I believe that voting shenanigans (and I include vote fixing on machines) in Ohio, and Florida will simply change dynamics there. I think they will change dynamics enough to throw those states (yep, I am painting Ohio Red) to Mittens. It will simply be stealing votes and noting more. If people in Ohio had a fair shake I think the state would reflect the polls but they don't and their Republican Secretary of State will make sure that people don't have that.

As for Florida, Governor Rick Scott treats voting in the same way as Kim Il Jong did. As we have seen, they are running things like it was a "third world nation". Personally, I just don't see this one breaking our way with him in that seat and his administration running the show down there.

THEN finally, I think Hurricane Sandy will depress voter turnout in NY and NJ. I think the President STILL wins handily there but, I just think the after effects of the Hurricane will drop Democratic voter numbers.
If there were no Republican shenanigans in Florida or Ohio I would gladly predict the vote totals to go hard for the President but I just don't see it at this point. I think it will be within .5% either way.

Electoral Vote:

I think it ends up 272-266 in favor of President Obama... .

How do I get there. I believe the President carries all of his base states PLUS Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin. I give Virginia to the Repubs, along with N.C., Florida, and the too be stolen Ohio.

I believe that while the Republicans have turned out strong in early voting in Colorado, I think people underestimate the Latino vote and what that can do there. Given the President's superior ground game, I believe that this will be enough to tip the scales to him.

I fully understand that the Ohio scenario seems wacky but given the events of 2000 (in Florida) and 2004 (in Ohio), I think we have a Republican party that will stoop to any low to steal an election and frankly that no one will do anything about it. HOWEVER, I don't think that they will be able to steal this one because the President is too strong in all of those other states.

As for the Senate:

I go with my one of my favorite politicians Elizabeth Warren to win her race. I think that Claire McCaskill wins her race in a nail biter against Todd "legitimate rape" Akin, BUT I think that Joe Donnelly loses to Richard "Rape is just G-d's plan" Mourdock because people are just that stupid (if you doubt me just look at the fact that there are Rep.'s Bachman, West, Walsh just to name a few).

All in all I think the Dems. hold the Senate at 50-48 (with the independents caucusing with the Dems.)
Now hopefully I am wrong and this is a big win for President Obama. BUT in all of my years (all 50 of them) I have seen things I list that make me a bit less optimistic for this election season. STILL, I think the President will win the election and I would be surprised if he didn't. I do though, think it will be a nail biter.
There are my predictions... What are yours?